If only an ad campaign could do the trick for Narendra Modi….

Prashant Panday
03 March 2013, 12:51 PM IST

The TOI today reports that "The next Gujarat tourism campaign will aim at bridging the distance between temples and mosques. Brand ambassador Amitabh Bachchan will shoot 'Khushboo Gujarat Ki' at an Islamic monument, the world heritage site of Champaner-Pavagadh, built by Mehmood Begada. Also part of the campaign will be Ahmedabad's heritage walk, which is known as 'Mandir se Masjid tak'". This is no doubt aimed at changing Modi's hardline image; making him more acceptable as a national figure. But if only life was this easy!

Now I come from the advertising world; so I have immense faith in advertising. But the BJP should not be so sanguine about this. They may want to remember their own "India Shining" campaign they had created before the 2004 elections. The point they forgot then was that advertising works, but for that to happen, there has to be at least a grain of truth in what is communicated. There wasn't one then; there isn't one now in the Modi's Gujarat Tourism ad. The people rejected the ad then; they are likely to reject the ad now as well.

Someone must give Modi some lessons in Marketing. He must understand what "positioning" means. He is currently positioned as the "Hindu Hriday Samrat". Not just "Hriday Samrat", but with the "Hindu" prominently placed where it is. This title is something that he has earned. Not by advertising, but by his deeds. He has the Godhra riots to thank for that. Now Modi realizes this; which is why he has no regrets for Godhra, Sadbhavana notwithstanding. Not surprising then that the Hindus (especially of Gujarat) love him, and have voted him back to power three consecutive times in the state. But equally, the others (and I don't want to single out the Muslims here) don't love him. Rather, they pretty much despise him. And that's where the rub lies.

Any marketing guru will tell Modi that it will take a lot of time to undo a past image, and create a new one. A strong positioning takes an even longer time to undo. Remember Onida – and its famed line "Neighbor's envy, owner's pride"? Highly successful; it established the TV brand as one of the early leaders in India. The brand has since struggled to reposition itself, to face up to the competition brought in by the Japanese and the Koreans. Brands which are more easily positioned (like Pepsi and its youth platform) find it easily to move from one idea to another. Unfortunately for Modi, he is in the Onida category, not the Pepsi one.

So rather than work on the ad campaign, here's what I would advise Modi to do. He should get onto the National Board of his party, and start looking towards other parts of the country with a new mindset. He will then realize his several shortcomings, which he must necessarily overcome if he has to be successful. For starters, he will have to shed his anti-minorities image. In deeds, not just words. He can start by apologizing for Godhra. He can then nominate more minority candidates for polls that happen in Gujarat, and elsewhere in the country. He can publicly shed his militant vision for Ayodhya. Hold out a genuine hand of friendship to all. Swear by inclusive growth; inclusive including the minorities, SCs, STs and OBCs. All this may take time, maybe even a decade or more. Because brand building requires "consistency". It cannot be achieved in a jiffy. A brand is tested under severe conditions; under huge provocations.

A little humility might be another trait he might want to build in. His huge pride about Gujarat's economic progress is because of the people of that state. Will his policies work in Orissa and Bihar? Or in UP and MP? He may need to learn some new tricks, in handling diverse regions; and diverse cultural traits.

He may want to look towards Vajpayee for a little inspiration. Vajpayee had the courage to at least say that Modi was wrong on Godhra; even if he was not strong enough to make Modi make amends. Vajpayee was a moderate; leaving the hardline image for Advani to take. It was Advani at Ayodhya exhorting his troops, not Vajpayee. In Vajpayee's NDA government, there was a Christian, George Fernandes, who occupied a key position. It was Vajpayee who made Abdul Kalam the President. Modi is not even a patch on Vajpayee.

Modi cannot achieve all this without the support of his party. But will his party agree to make a Muslim or a Christian the PM? Do they even have anyone senior in their party cadres for this? I doubt it. This is Modi's opportunity. To re-design the organization, just like Rahul Gandhi is trying to do to the Congress. Like I said, this will take time, but Modi is young. What's the rush??!!

The real truth is that Modi is going down the "India Shining" route. Hiding the lies in the backyard. But people are smart. They probe and find out what the truth is. And unless Modi does something about that, his campaign will just be a huge waste of money. Government money….

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Class act

Swaty Prakash
03 March 2013, 03:14 PM IST

Last week, my five-year-old storehouse of wisdom confessed that she has changed her aspirations from being a veterinarian to a teacher. When asked why, she said, rather nonchalantly, that doctors need to study a lot. Quite offended by her observation, I retorted, "But teachers need to study a lot too."

"Ah, but I will be a nursery teacher," she argued.

Her statement got me thinking.

It reminded me of the days when self-professed career counselors in the family and beyond would disapprove of my choice of profession (journalism) and shake their heads in disapproval. "Teaching is what you should do," they would suggest, leaving me fuming and cringing at the thought of doing what in our country almost any woman is always advised to choose. Back then, I considered teaching beneath my knowledge and skills.

But it happened. A decade later, I was to be in a class with a bunch of 30-35 students almost daring me to make them study. I remember my first day in probably one of the most infamous classes in school. I remember how I looked my best and practiced my best smile, expecting 35 pairs of eyes on me, wishing me when I would introduce myself to them. It would be a cakewalk, I figured.

I entered a classroom saturated with chaos. There were no greetings, no smiles. In fact, no one even acknowledged my presence.

That day, I realized two things. One, that it was much easier when I interviewed a murderer in jail during my reporting days, and two that I could shout really loud. Unfortunately, no one except me realized this. To them, I did not exist and my shouts were lost in their pandemonium.

Insulted and ignored, I stormed out of the classroom. Back in the staffroom, I was in tears telling my best friend that maybe I just shouldn't be here.

My friend, who also happens to be one of the most respected teachers in school, decided to sort things out. She went to the classroom to speak to the students who still hadn't realized that they had literally driven their new teacher out of their class.

In her 15-minute long tête-à-tête with the students, she screamed at them, scolded them and made them feel ashamed of their actions. The result: I received a poem beginning with "Roses are red, sky is blue, oh our teacher..... " undersigned by almost the entire class, and I too started believing that maybe, I had won them over.

The effect stayed for the next two classes but slowly they were back to doing what they were best at — being disobedient and uninterested. It took me three months to realize that no job in the world can be as personal as that of a teacher. I learned that to win them over, I needed more than knowledge of my subject or a shrill loud voice, I needed to be me. A much better me.

My students are still unruly in class but now, when I shout at them, they smile warmly and tell me, "Ma'am, you teach really well but you don't scold well!!"

When I asked this friend, how does she manage to get her students to study, she gave me the magic mantra: "Simple. Just make them love you and every thing else will follow."

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The days of matric pass

Santosh Desai
03 March 2013, 06:56 PM IST

The 12th class board exams are currently under way in many parts of India. For some this is mere information, but for a few it is a reality the prospect of which has consumed them with increasing anxiety for the better part of 5 years. Earlier, the fear was centred first around the 10th class boards, but with the virtual abolition of that barrier, it is concentrated around this one, apparently life changing, event. Students have lived their life in reverse, counting down the days before they encounter this dreaded beast, and parents have created a sense of mortal fear around this landmark, telling their wards stories full of dire warnings and grim prognoses.

At one level, this has always been the case. In the old days, passing the matriculation exam did not merely enable one to pursue further studies as per one's choice, but it also helped one gain the exalted status of being Matric Pass. It was a bona fide qualification that made one worthy of a job as one entered the ranks of the educated ( true even today for many jobs including clerical positions in the Government). Passing matric (even failing it) counted for something, and many a wrist adorned an HMT watch for the first time in recognition of this achievement.

In the simpler world that existed then, passing an exam at all was a big deal; for many it was sufficient simply to pass. Exams carried with them the grammar of toil and the vocabulary of constipation, with the 'passing' representing a crossing of a particularly troublesome threshold. For those who passed, the world was divided neatly into three different compartments- the third class accommodated the trundlers, who were relieved to have squeaked through to the right side of the divide, the second class represented the comfortable world of the average (with those who squeaked in with 51% being those who considered themselves incredibly fortunate and beamed joyously for the rest of their lives), and the rare breed who passed in the first division were the cream of society, much admired and feted. The 'throughout first class' breed boasted of students with shiny foreheads and proud, almost disbelieving parents, who paraded their trophies with anxious pride.

Like the simple division of the world into Science, Commerce and Arts, based not on the student's inclination or aptitude but on the basis of her academic performance, the world of first, second and third class was simple and easy to understand. They were nuances at both ends of the spectrum, a few of the top performers passed in first class with 'distinction' a word that was spoken of only in hushed reverence, while those that were on the brink at the other end, by virtue of having failed in a couple of subjects, were said, at least in Delhi, to have passed with 'compartment' ( in Gujarat they were described with the curious acronym ATKT- Allowed To Keep Terms).

Today, of course, such clarity is rarely available. Merely passing has little value, and the concept of first class makes little sense at a time when scoring 90% is seen as being insufficient. If the purpose of a qualifying exam like this was to divide the world into neat parts and give the student of sense of where he lay in the overall scheme of things, the current system works hard at making everyone equally anxious and unhappy. One can never do well enough, one can only fail with varying degrees of disappointment.

The idea of a big barrier that needed to be crossed before the student is ready for other things in life, be it taking up work or engaging in further studies is easy to understand. At the most fundamental level, any change in life stage must be marked with a sense of ceremony so as to make us aware of its significance. Birthdays, the coming of age in terms of sexual maturity, moving from school to college, graduating, getting married- all these events need a sense of occasion, an underlining of significance that prepares us to change gears and alerts others of our new status. In more functional terms the idea of a significant qualifying exam also helps sort the undifferentiated mass of students into different streams of careers, using some organising principle, however arbitrary.

Today, much has changed. The number of career options has multiplied, and many more avenues have opened up to success. The world can no longer be divided linearly into a few hierarchical segments. Given the new reality, the fuss around the board exams is difficult to understand. Professional courses, in any case, have their own entrance exams (the IITJEE being the most prominent), and the choice of subjects at the college level does not matter all that much, for it is the post-graduate degree that determines the quality of jobs one will get. The choice of the college too plays a minor role at best ( barring maybe a college or two, where if nothing else, the badge value of belonging carries some advantages), and in any case, college at the undergraduate level is hardly seen as a site of academic rigour.

The importance given to the 12th class exams reflects apart from a mythic need to cross a difficult hurdle with some ceremony, nothing more than a need for validation, particularly for the parents. Being able to get into a coveted course or college ( even if there is little real benefit that will accrue as result) is sign of success because it has been deemed to be so. In reality, it  is based on little real evidence and determines very little about the young adult's future. By now, we should outgrown this institution, for barring an academic sense of pride in doing well at the board exams, not too much is at stake. As a parent whose child is appearing in the exams, that is what i tell myself. Without much success.

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Youngistan zindabad

Chidanand Rajghatta
02 March 2013, 09:40 AM IST

This year's TED conference was bright and shiny. It was a beacon of a youth that sees problems, and solutions, in a new light.

Around this time every year, I manage to slip away from wintry Washington DC and its glut of politics, and wing it to Long Beach, California, where I marinade my weary, thirsty mind in the outpouring of sunny optimism at the annualTED conference. TED (TED = Technology, Entertainment, and Design) has been sometimes described as a brain spa, at which attendees get mind massages, or more colorfully, indulge in "unending mental orgasms". Over a  period  of  four days, some of the best minds in the world — scientists, musicians, artists, philosophers, entrepreneurs, philanthropists — unveil their latest works and thoughts in an 18-minute or less "talk  of  their  life".  The  attendees  are bubbly, the mood buoyant and messages upbeat. You come away hopeful. 

Attendance is by invitation only, usually after forking out US$ 7500 a head, although most talks are eventually posted online so you can watch it for  free. This year's conference theme was "The Young, the Wise, and the Undiscovered", which suited me fine, because aside from escaping the cold, my TED yatra is also aimed at getting away from the OLD. At TED, I get to connect  with  my  inner geek and outer body; and I hang out with the young and smart, a world away from insufferable 20th century political windbags of Washington DC (and New Delhi). It is invigorating and uplifting. 

Among the speakers was Taylor  Wilson, an 18-year-old nuclear scientist who electrified the world some years back by building a fusion reactor in his parents' garage at age 14. He has now invented small modular fission reactors which will run on waste from  old  nuclear weapons. He said he's rolling out a company later this year, backed by venture capitalists and the US government, to commercialise his product and stay ahead of China, which he thinks is sneaking up on the US. He is  more  sanguine about New Delhi as a US ally. 

Then there was Jack Andraka, 15, who has built a pancreatic cancer detector using inexpensive strips of filter paper, carbon nanotubes, and antibodies sensitive to mesothelin, a protein found  in  high levels in people with such cancer. The cancer test idea came to Jack in a school biology class on antibodies, and he was soon building on it reading up on Google. He wrote to some 200  professors  in  the  Washington  DC  area  and received one positive reply — from Dr Anirban Maitra, a Professor of Pathology and Oncology at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. Winning the Intel Science Fair grand prize of US$ 75,000 along the way ("It was pretty  cool  to  beat all the Indian kids to the prize," he said in an interview referring to the dominance of Indian-Americans in the contest), Andraka is talking to Quest Diagnostics to commercialise the product. 

It's not just rich, white kids who are on stage at TED. Richard Turere is a young Masai who lives in the Kenyan savannah. He invented "lion lights", an electrified fence that scared away big cats attacking his family cattle. India is full of such jugaadus, a  term  that readers are doubtless familiar with. In fact, Indian youth have now scaled up the ladder, and year after year, I see them make a splash at TED that leaves investors gasping and itching to throw  money  after  them.  Small  problem: India's regulatory environment.

One of the most striking presentations at TED came from Mumbai nerd Myshkin Ingawale, who followed up his last year's TouchHB, a portable non-invasive device to test anaemia with uCheck, a smartphone application that can analyse your urine at home, and keep track of 10 parameters — glucose, bilirubin, proteins, spec gravity, ketones, leukocytes, nitrites, urobilinogen, haematuria. This is helpful to  people  with  diabetes  and kidney, bladder, liver problems, UTI or just for primary detection and periodic wellness tracking. 
It is easy to be skeptical, even cynical, at this parade of young talent. Much of their work has not been peer reviewed,  and  there are hard yards between discovery/invention and the market. How do you think Westinghouse and General Electric will allow you to eat their lunch, I asked Taylor Wilson. "Wait and see," he grinned,  and  I'm  not  sure  he  knew the answer. 

But the thrilling part is the young see problems and solutions in a different light — with fresh minds and an idealism that has usually departed from the old. Turere's Lion Lights is not exactly rocket science,  but  it  is more affordable than radio collars, flares etc. Myshkin's designs are aimed not at doctors and big hospitals, but at ASHA health care workers, who are the backbone of the healthcare system. Andraka's simple newtechnique replaces a 60-year old test ("older than my dad," he said) that was 26,000 times more expensive. It costs pennies to the dollar now and takes less than five minutes. 

As I spoke to these young men, I heard a common refrain — a disdain for the formal system and establishment. Myshkin's work had not attracted the slightest interest from the government; Andraka is going to college reluctantly (only because his US$ 75,000 Intel Prize can only be used for college education), and Taylor Wilson isn't even going to bother with it — he is so far ahead of the pack. 

It all segued well with the keynote by this year's US$ 1 million TED Prize winner Dr  Sugata  Mitra.  It  is  not  that  the establishment does not have a role or formal education can be junked. But they need not be so central to the lives of the young in the 21st century. Mitra's hole-in-the-wall experiments, where he lets kids tool  around  a  computer unsupervised, shows the best results come when children work in groups, with minimal adult oversight. In fact, at the TED bash, it turned out that Andraka, Myshkin,  and  Turere  had  all  exchanged  notes  without  being  formally introduced. They drew ideas from each other, swapped coordinates, and went away richer. 

"Hey teacher! Leave those kids alone!" exhorted Pink Floyd. This applies to the establishment too. If you can't solve problems then get out  of the way. Mitra made a piercing observation  when  he  questioned  why  schools  took  away  smartphones  and  netbooks  from  kids  in  classrooms.  "Would  you  take  away  guns  from  soldiers  before sending  them  to  battle?".

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Unlearnt lessons

Jug Suraiya
02 March 2013, 12:44 PM IST

No matter what surprises the FM's budget did or did not contain, going by past performance one thing was a dead certainty - the budgetary allocation for defence (guns, bombs, planes, ships and other military hardware) and for subsidies (fertilisers, kerosene, diesel, foodgrains, etc) is far in excess of the allocation for education. Well, so what's wrong with that?

Shouldn't protecting the nation's borders against external threat be given top priority, along with looking after the basic physical needs of the economically weakest sections of society? The nation certainly needs protection. But it needs protection not just from external threat but also from increasing internal threat, as represented by so-called Maoists and growing bands of home-grown terrorists, whatever be their purported ideology, green or saffron. Guns and tanks and other military hardware are perhaps not the most effective form of defence against such internal threats.

Similarly, the poorest of the poor in our country - and there are a shamefully enormous number of them - also need protection from suffering even more economic hardship than they are already exposed to. But is the continuous giving of more and more subsidies the best way of protecting them? Some would argue that by creating a dependency on handouts, the protracted doling out of subsidies doesn't alleviate poverty and economic disparity and hardship but only entrenches such inequalities.

There is a strategy - admittedly with a long-term time horizon - which could effectively counter both the internal threat of Maoism and terrorism and that of persistent poverty. That strategy is education. 

It is largely, though not always, the lack of education - and the accompanying lack of opportunity for economic and social advancement - that helps to swell the ranks and files of Maoists and other extremists. Again, it is lack of education that is the root cause of chronic poverty: basic literacy is a far more effective instrument for permanent poverty eradication than any amount of subsidies can ever be.

So why is it that the government spends over six times as much on weapons and on subsidies than it does on education? In 2012, India reportedly spent R1,93,407 crore on defence, R1,90,015 crore on subsidies and R28,679 crore on education.

Why does the government give such comparatively low priority to education as compared with defence and subsidies? Could it  possibly be because both defence and subsidies reinforce the protective, mai-baap role of the sarkar and increase rather than reduce our sense of dependence on it?

Education, on the other hand, breeds a sense of self-confidence and self-dependence, a can-do, will-do attitude that doesn't need to rely on sarkari handouts. As a socially and economically liberating force, education has no parallel.

It is this liberating aspect of education which makes it so dangerous. Dangerous, that is, for  any system of government which has, over time, ensured that the vast majority of the people over whom it presides  are never freed from their day-to-day patronage of on their rulers.

In a democracy, especially in a deeply flawed democracy like ours, education frees citizens from the shackles of governmental dependency. Which is why when it comes to education the sarkari response can be summed up as: Edukashion? Wot's that?

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CAG, SC and RBI all responsible for economic slowdown….

Prashant Panday
02 March 2013, 02:28 PM IST

In all the hullaballoo that surrounded the presentation of the Union Finance budget, a very important event got completely ignored. In the 3^rd quarter of the financial year, India's GDP growth plummeted to a 10-year low of 4.5%. The record of the lowest growth rate (3.8% in 2002-3) still remains with the NDA of course. It's time we focused attention on the culprits of this disastrous economic showing.

The primary culpability for the economic slow-down has to be the government's. Through fiscal prudence, determined action on clearing large sized projects, smart economic policies and deft management of Parliamentary numbers, the ruling government is expected to overcome the typical hurdles that face a coalition government. The UPA-2 government must thus accept a large part of the blame. And it must be deservedly panned in the public domain. Our media specializes in government bashing and we have to agree that the government has got it left and right from the media over the last couple of years. This is the way the government is held accountable for its lapses. The ultimate punishment would come from the voters, if they voted it out in 2014. So lets leave the government out for the moment. Let's focus attention on the other key players – none of whom are even remotely held accountable by either the media or the public.

The first in the list is no doubt the CAG. How big a blunder the CAG made in the 2G scam is becoming more and more clear with every 2G auction failure. The reserve fee for GSM auctions has been lowered from Rs 18000 crores to Rs 14000 crores to less than Rs 10000 crores. Yet, the auctions haven't managed to attract any bidders. As a result, MTS, one of those who lost their licenses in Feb 2012, has managed to win its spectrum back at the base price without bidding. The CAG has to answer the question about how it got its loss estimate so wrong. By first suggesting, and then actively publicizing its kinky Rs 1.76 lac loss figure through repeated media interactions, the CAG created the impression that the ruling government had pocketed the money. But the CAG was wrong. Not only was the figure wrongly estimated, it was also wrong on its part to dive into policy matters. The government was within its rights to set whatever reserve fee it wanted to keep.

The CAG's irresponsible auditing is responsible for the policy paralysis that followed. The CBI was put on the chase of allegedly guilty bureaucrats and politicians. After so much time, all that we have is a Rs 200 alleged crore scam between Raja and the DB Realty group. Worse, the 3G business – on the basis of which the CAG estimated the huge 2G loss – has all but tanked. Tariffs are steep; penetration pathetic. It is now clear that the 3G auctions were a mistake; the telecom industry had goofed up in estimating the revenue opportunity. But the CAG made an even bigger mistake – of perpetuating the wrong for eternity.

The CAG went on to make more gaffes. It's estimate of a Rs 2 lac crore scam with S-band spectrum was unpardonable. Yet, it never apologized for it. Likewise the coal scam was completely misplaced. In all cases, the CAG confused implementation failures and corruption at grassroots levels with flawed policy, setting the entire process of governance behind by years.

The SC is the next constitutional authority that must share the blame for declining growth. Wanting to be seen as being in line with public sentiments, the SC acted on the CAG report and canceled all 2G licenses issued by Raja. What kind of a justice was this, with those not connected with any wrongdoing also being made to pay for the crimes of the ones who did. The SC in fact went further and ordered that all natural resources should only be auctioned, vastly exceeding its mandate. Thankfully, the government recovered its wits, and challenged the verdict, leading to its annulment by the Constitution bench of the apex court. Should the government not have challenged the cancelation of the 2G licenses also? Of course it should have, but it chose to take advantage of the opportunity afforded by the SC order to raise resources and cut the fisc deficit.

As a result of the SC ordered auctions, the 2G telecom business is in a tailspin. Operators are refusing to participate in further auctions until the policy is made more realistic. They are culling low paying subscribers – the poorest sections – as they search for efficiency in spectrum usage. After all, why should they cater to low end subscribers if the government won't give them cheap spectrum? It's not their job to take care of social equity issues. If the government  wants to extend the benefits of this revolutionary technology to them, let it ask BSNL and MTNL to do so, and let it fund their resultant losses. Do we hear the SC accepting its mistake? No way….

The SC has also been over-zealous in canceling all mining licenses in Karnataka and Goa, leading to the mining sector crashing.

The last institution I want to blame is the RBI. It decided to narrow its mandate to just "inflation management", leaving the job of economic growth solely to the Finance Minister. It has completely misiunderstood the high inflation, thinking in traditional ways that it hurts the poor. It failed to recognize that this time around, it was the demand arising from the poor – thanks to NREGA, higher MSPs, and thousands of crores of subsidies of various types – that was leading to the demand. The poor were not hurting. Yet, the RBI did nothing to wisen up; to remove the blinkers covering its eyes. It went ahead clerically, raising rates 13 times in a year and a half, till it all but completely crushed India's growth story. Has the RBI realized that inflation has actually come down after fuel price hikes, and after it lowered interest rates, not before? Had its theories been right, inflation should have increased right? But the RBI doesn't understand that it simply has to drop rates sharply. Will it do that? No way. It will stick to its ostrich like approach; causing much pain and agony to the entire economy.

These three institutions must be made answerable. In fact, they must be made answerable to the government, not to Parliament. That kind of supervision means nothing. It is impossible to sack the CAG, thanks to the political animal that this CAG has made his office. Ditto, SC judges. And the RBI governor is so keen to prove that his office is truly independent of the government, that he has made it a point to do the exact opposite of what the Finance Minister wants. How can this continue? All those people who demand that more and more institutions should be made independent must give the state of affairs of the current institutions a thought.

And what about the fourth estate – media? The less said the better. In its desperation to garner more viewers and readers, the media has completely sold the country out. It's irresponsibility has breached all limits. It has blindly supported the public mood; hardly bothered to search for the truth. It is as responsible for the mess as the others.

The real truth is that India has been let down by irresponsible leaders heading important constitutional bodies. Unfortunately, none of them can be held accountable. The CAG in particular has shamed the country the most – even talking at international fora about our domestic issues. Its time we take all of these bodies to task – just as we do the government every single day….

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Congress' 2014 rainbow coalition

Minhaz Merchant
01 March 2013, 05:39 PM IST

Can the Congress repeat US President Barack Obama's strategy to win 2014? Obama beat Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by a slender 2% of the popular vote last November. His second-term victory has had political parties across the world scrambling to figure out how an African-American with a Kenyan father and a divorced mother won over a largely white, conservative electorate twice in a row.

The answer: a rainbow coalition of women, coloured minorities (African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians) and young white professionals.

Can the Congress pull off the trick in 2014?

Consider Obama's strategy more closely. The US president knew that most white men were hard-core Republicans. Nearly 80% of white men over 45 did indeed vote against Obama. White women were more evenly balanced with a small majority backing Obama.

But the president scored heavily (95%) with African-Americans and Asians and fairly heavily (70%) with Hispanics. Women finally clinched it for him: overall, more than 65% of US women – across ethnicities – voted for him, giving him his 2% popular vote edge which translated into a larger electoral college victory in America's complex winner-gets-all federal system.

The Congress clearly has an advantage over the BJP with minorities. In the US of course, unlike India, minorities are classified not by religion but by race. There is no categorization of American Muslims, American Christians or American Hindus.

In secular America, religion is – as it should be – strictly private. In secular India, religion is ostentatiously public. It is the single biggest reason why politicians across the ideological spectrum exploit religion for electoral ends.

Consider the Congress' strategy on how to corral the minority-poor-women votebank in 2014. The party's lock on the 14% Muslim vote is loosening with leakages to regional parties (SP, NCP, MIM, NC, etc). Some are allies. Some are not.

Will Muslims, despite being kept in poverty and backwardness by decades of Congress governments, still vote for it in 2014? Possibly. But as education seeps through the community, the realization that they have been tricked will grow.

Assuming this strategy of deception works for one more election, the Congress can hope to garner 8-9% of the 14% Muslim vote – the rest going to regionals. The poor are a bigger catch. They are vulnerable to money power. 

Direct cash transfer is the Congress' weapon of choice. Sonia Gandhi reserved her longest, most animated applause for Finance Minister P. Chidambaram's announcement in Thursday's budget on the Direct Benefit Transfer scheme. She knows how high the stakes are.

But the poor too are a fragmented votebank. Many will vote regionally. Others will have seen through the deception of doles that don't materialize – and when they do, increase their dependency, not their competency. No physical assets are built. No productive infrastructure is created. These are subsidies packaged for elections, not the poor.

The third catchment area – women – is the most promising: it is an "emerging" bank and the Congress knows it could tilt the balance in 2014. After being slammed for its insensitive initial response to the Nirbhaya gangrape, the Congress has worked overtime to compensate.  

It has passed the anti-sexual harassment bill in parliament and proposed a "women's bank" as well as a Rs.1,000-crore Nirbhaya Fund for women. Pitched against the BJP's Hindutva image, the Congress hopes to capture the gender vote.

Will women see all this as tokenism? Is Narendra Modi's relatively poor showing with women-respondents in an opinion poll by Open magazine last month a straw in the wind?  

Obama was successful in building his rainbow coalition of minorities, poor and women because he had a positive agenda: universal healthcare, fiscal propriety, infrastructure development. The Congress has few policies beyond those that can win it elections.

It is also neck-deep in corruption. Obama in contrast has a reputation for principled policymaking and unimpeachable integrity. There is no duality of power and accountability in the US. The buck stops at the White House. Rainbows work under those conditions, not when the atmosphere is thick with graft, intrigue and diarchy. 

Rahul vs. Modi may in the end turn out to be the wrong prescription. Rahul will prefer to play the Regent as in the British Raj while his appointed  Viceroy deals with the minions and policy.

Modi may lead the BJP's national campaign committee but bide his time for the Prime Ministership. The BJP's core committee meeting over the next two days will provide clues as the countdown to 2014 begins in earnest.  

Follow @minhazmerchant on twitter

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Sound economics, sounder politics

Dileep Padgaonkar
01 March 2013, 12:20 PM IST

Not even the most strident critic of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram could have under-estimated the gravity of the challenges he faced while preparing the last full budget of the UPA government. He had to take into account the  harsh economic realities at home and abroad: a high rate of inflation, a nightmarish fiscal deficit, external imbalances, a slowdown of the global economy, rising oil prices and turbulence in the Euro zone. And he had to factor in the need to equip his Congress party - that has been mired in scam after humongous scam and held responsible for its failure to contain the price rise, atrocities on women, terrorist attacks and farmers' suicides - to face the general elections on a sound footing.

In order to walk the tight rope between these two equally tough compulsions, the FM had to demonstrate the skills of a consummate trapeze artiste. His performance could vow neither those who expected him to take bold initiatives to rev up the economy (the corporate sector)nor those who sought a stronger dose of populist measures(the NGO sector.) Both sides however were rather muted in their criticism of the budget. Indeed, captains of industry seemed to bend over backwards to highlight Chidambaram's prudence, pragmatism and political savvy while the NGOs, breaking from past practice, expressed their reservations more with a sense of disappointment than with a sense of righteous indignation.

Against this background, the reactions of the opposition parties seemed to be devoid of punch. The BJP roundly condemned the 'helpless' Finance Minister for presenting a 'dull' budget and charged that he is taxing the super-rich to pay for the inefficiencies of the UPA government. (Crore-pati members of Parliament, including those of the opposition parties, however showed not the slightest sign of resentment.) At the other end of the political spectrum, the left parties accused him of pandering to corporate interests yet again while ignoring the concerns of the aam admi and of  farmers. Both dismissed the FM's focus on women, youth, the SCs, the STs and the minorities as little more than tokenism.

The blunt truth is that the opposition parties have been caught napping. They were convinced that Chidambaram would exploit this last opportunity before the general elections to unfold a slew of populist measures. The BJP would then have charged, quite correctly, that the Congress had sacrificed the nation's economic interests to promote its political fortunes. And the Left would have stigmatised him, not without reason, as much for delaying the measures as for not quite pursuing the path of inclusive growth.

This is clearly not the sort of budget they had expected. The FM remained true to his word about reducing the fiscal deficit. The measures he has announced to speed up growth in infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, the hi-tech  banking and education sectors, to encourage private-public ventures and to stimulate house-hold savings have, at the very least, the potential not only to arrest the down-ward slide of the economy but also to raise it to a level where it can grow at a pace of 6  per cent and more. Their cumulative impact on creating job opportunities for skilled youth cannot be dismissed out of hand. All this should take care to some extent of the griping of this or the other sector of the economy, and of this or the other state goverment, that it hasn't received its due.

In addition to specific allocations for the socially and economically vulnerable sections of the population, Chidambaram has provided sufficient funds for the government's flagship programmes that includes food security to the poor. Even more significant is his determination to extend the scheme of direct transfer of subsidies to the beneficiaries to the entire country within a year or so. What political gains the Congress harvests from this budget depends to a large extent on how the programmes are implemented on the ground. The experience so far has been far from conclusive. All the same, it would be imprudent for the opposition parties to decry the programmes as nothing more than hot air.

They will do so at their own risk and peril. One plank of the BJP – to be tough on terror - has fallen by the wayside after the hanging of Kasab and Afzal Guru and after New Delhi's firm response to Pakistan's mischief on the Line of Control. Now its other plank – the Gujarat model of development – threatens to meet a similar fate. The chinks in this model – non-inclusive growth, poor rating on the human development index – stand exposed. Add to this list of votes the thumbs up that Nitish Kumar, an NDA ally, has given to the budget.

But Chidambaram has yet to demonstrate his most dazzling skill . He has resolved to work closely with one of his most acerbic critics, Yashwant Sinha, to reach a consensus on a new tax regime. He can also be trusted to take into account the legitimate concerns of corporates, state governments and opposition parties provided these do not undermine his trapeze artiste act. To ensure that this does not happen, our fractious political establishment has to rise to the occasion as it has done time and again in the past.             

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Across the graveyard of ships

Abhilash Tomy
01 March 2013, 12:56 PM IST

I spent the 19th of February between legs, rounding the Cape of Good Hope at a respectable distance and passing from the Atlantic into the Indian Ocean to begin the home run.

Known as the Cape of Storms and the Tavern of Seas, it is at a point close to the Cape that the warm Agulhas current meets the cold Benguela current, where a gale is recorded every 36 hours if not less. It overlooks the Agulhas banks that extend the southern tip of Africa into a shallow plain under the sea above which a strong current flows towards the west. At times, when a front passes bringing strong westerly winds in tow the force of the wind and undercutting currents act in opposition to pile up waves as high as 100 feet with a steep leeward face-a phenomenon that can break the back of the strongest ship. It is also for this reason that sailboats sailing eastwards usually round the Cape south of the banks. On the 520th birthday of Nicolas Copernicus, the Renaissance astronomer and mathematician who had formulated a heliocentric model of the universe, not only had I round the Cape but also conclusively proven the rotundity of the earth because I had intersected my own track that had started as a solo voyage from Cape Town on the 31st of April 2011 and meandered onwards to India in May to reach Goa in the first days of June, and thereafter voyaged eastwards this year to reach the same point on earth through west. I had thus, technically, become the second Indian to circumnavigate the globe solo and under sail.

The last solo from Cape to Goa and the present one around the world

But it had not been an easy rounding for the Cape of Storms lived up to its name. On the 19th winds blew a steady 40 knots from the South West prompting me to keep the Cape as far to the north as possible. Winds regularly gusted to 50 knots and more and the swell stood at 8 metres by conservative estimates. We were already down to the last reef on the main and the stay sail was partly furled to reduce exposure. At one point, just hours after the rounding, a huge build up of clouds dissipated right astern of us sending in winds at 70 knots, pinning the boat to the leeward and bashing her without mercy. It hadn't been the best of times to be out on deck let alone without a harness. All I could do was to hang on to the winch while the boat tried to right itself, which it did after considerable effort. Soon enough she was pinned a second time in the same manner but this time a wave seemed to have found the genoa and opened it just enough to allow it to catch the onslaught of the gust. In no time it opened further until it had a belly that was being expanded by the winds and it shook the mast and the boat along with it. In the words of the last skipper who had experienced something similar close to Australia, it was as if a supremely powerful god was holding the boat by the tip of the mast and was shaking it vigorously. That indeed had been the first time a prayer had come to my lips. Soon the genoa shredded putting an end to the misery and winds abated and steadied at the much milder 40s. That was the offering this cape took of me, in the same manner that it had scarred genoa after genoa in each west to east rounding of the boat.

The shredded genoa

One of the first congratulatory messages came from Sir Robin Knox-Johnston, the first person to sail solo around the world without stops or assistance. After a tour of India lecturing at IIT Kharagpur, followed by a naval audience at Mumbai and cadets at the National Defence Academy, he had just updated the list of people who had circumnavigated the globe solo and south of the three great capes and found that the list had swelled to 199 in the wake of the latest Vendee Globe. He wrote - "Thus, unless someone else creeps in from another source, of which I currently have no knowledge, the position of 200th on the list is the next one and waiting for you. Go for it!"

Negotiating the Indian Ocean is going to be the trickiest part of the entire voyage because all that I can see is a minefield of fronts, cyclones, currents, counter-currents, squalls, trade winds, shipping, fishing, piracy, doldrums, tropical heat, islands and banks forming a 5000 mile long obstacle course. It is like the Indian board game of snakes and ladders where each mistake can set you back by days if not weeks. The prospect of having to sail across the Indian Ocean without a genoa and the consequent slower passage on the home run appears daunting. But then, having sailed two-third around the world without a chopping board, and one third without pop corn, I am sure I can take this minor discomfort in stride and sail the last 5000 miles to get her back to the monument where it all started- the Gateway of India.

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Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster Returns

Meeta Kabra
28 February 2013, 11:01 AM IST

A sequel which actually is a sequel, and not just cashing in on the prospect of a franchise - that's welcome already. So, we'll be back in the aristocratic world of the prince, his wife and a new gangster will enter the scene. And the new addition is none other than Irrfan Khan! We all know what magnificence they created last time director Tigmanshu Dhulia and Irrfan Khan got together in Paan Singh Tomar.

Other than that the mystical aura of Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster, the elements of aristocracy, deceit, arrogance and jealousy seem to be at a prime in the second installment too. In addition there is a tinge of revenge that the trailer  seems to hint upon.

Along with that though is the use of sex as a tool to express love. No problem with that, I just hope there is more to the love implied than sex. Also, I hope the awkwardness has reduced over the last couple years.

Other than that, I am completely looking forward to Jimmy Sheirgill and Soha Ali Khan in a role that suits them best - Royal lives; Irrfan Khan in whatever role he chooses to play; and I hope Mahie Gill gets some of her oomph from Dev D back.

And more that, there's the witty dialogue, an atmosphere trying to seduce you and Tigmanshu Dhulia's film after Paan Singh Tomar to look forward to!

Music Reviews:
dunkdaft - "Composed by Sandeep Chowta, this one would work only in line with the screenplay, and not as stand alone album like the first one did. "
Milliblog - "Welcome back, Sandeep Chowta!"
glamsham - "3/5"

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