2014: Final Countdown

Minhaz Merchant
06 March 2014, 05:49 PM IST

In the home stretch leading up to the 2014 Lok Sabha election beginning April 7, four political forces will come into play. First, the BJP and its expanding orbit of NDA allies. Second, the Congress and its shrinking UPA base. Third, the ragtag Third Front. And fourth, the equally amorphous Fourth Front.

The following analysis factors in several key issues: one, the formation of Telangana; two, the entry of Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP into the BJP-led NDA; three, the possibility of Raj Thackeray's MNS not contesting the 2014 Lok Sabha poll; four, the unravelling of the AIADMK-Left alliance; and fifth, likely new alliances between the BJP and small parties in Tamil Nadu (DMDK, PMK, MDMK), Haryana and elsewhere.

So what do the numbers throw up?

Start with likely seats for the BJP. As frontrunner, BJP strategists should break up their seat target into three categories: Focus States, Challenging States and Small States/UTs.

Here are the projections:

Focus states

1. Gujarat: 23
2. Madhya Pradesh: 25
3. Rajasthan: 22
4. Maharashtra: 18
5. Uttar Pradesh: 48
6. Bihar: 24
7. Karnataka: 15
8. Chhattisgarh: 8
9. Jharkhand: 8
10. Uttarakhand: 4

Total: 195 

Challenging states

1. Haryana: 4
2. Punjab: 2
3. Assam: 5
4. West Bengal: 1
5. Kerala: 1
6. Andhra Pradesh (Telangana): 2
7. Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra): 1
8. Odisha: 1
9. Tamil Nadu: 2
10. Others: 2

     Total 21 

Small states/UTs

1. Goa: 2
2. Daman & Diu: 1
3. Nagar Haveli: 1
4. Himachal Pradesh: 3
5. Jammu & Kashmir: 2
6. Delhi: 3
7. Andamans: 1
8. Others: 1

Total: 14 

BJP: overall total: 230

Turn now to the Congress:

Assuming the TRS fights the general election in a seat sharing alliance with the Congress in Andhra Pradesh (Telangana constituencies), these are the likely numbers for the Congress:

1. Gujarat : 3
2. Madhya Pradesh: 3
3. Rajasthan: 1
4. Chhattisgarh: 3
5. Maharashtra: 9
6. Karnataka: 12
7. Uttar Pradesh: 4
8. Bihar: 1
9. Jharkhand: 2
10. Uttarakhand: 1
11. Haryana: 2
12. Punjab: 1
13. Assam: 5
14. West Bengal: 4
15. Kerala: 7
16. Andhra Pradesh (Telangana): 4
17. Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra): 1
18. Odisha: 4
19. Tamil Nadu: 1
20. Others: 7

Total: 75

 How does the Third Front stack up? 

Third Front

1. Left (four parties): 25
2. SP: 10
3. BJD: 12
4. JD(U): 4
5. Others: 7

Total: 58 

The likely rupture in the AIADMK's alliance with the Left parties could sound the death knell of the Third Front, especially with the BJD also turning sceptical. 

What about the Fourth Front, comprising parties antagonistic to the Third Front? Their likely numbers: 

Fourth Front

1. TMC: 27
2. DMK: 9
3. YSR: 12
4. BSP: 18
5. Others: 6

Total: 72

So we have our final math:

NDA: BJP (230) + SS (15) + SAD (7) + TDP (12) + LJP (2) + Others/Independents (18) = 284.

UPA: Congress (75) + NCP (5) + NC (1) +TRS (7) + RJD (8) + Others (8) = 104.

Third Front: Left Front (25) + SP (10) + JDU (4) + BJD (12) + Others (7) = 58.

Fourth Front: TMC (27) + DMK (9) + YSR (12) + BSP (18) + Others (6) = 72.

Likely post-poll governing combinations? Here are two:

1. UPA + Third Front: 106+58 =164. Plus outside support from AAP (10)=174. Add mercurial  BSP (18) = 192 – well short of a working majority.
2. NDA + post-poll allies: 284 + AIADMK (22) = 306.

Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR (12) and others from the Fourth Front could join the NDA though their numbers would not be critical to forming a stable government. Is there a further upside for the NDA? With two months of campaigning to go in this 9-phase election, there clearly is.

Follow @minhazmerchant on twitter

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Facebook-ising Twitter?

Kim Arora
06 March 2014, 07:31 PM IST

Did you see the new Twitter redesign? Chances are, you didn't. Nyahaha! Loser! Okay, wait. Kidding.

If it hasn't been rolled out for you yet, you would have caught glimpses of it on some international tech blogs. They have been harping on about the Facebook-like "testing-stage" redesign for about a month now. Being rolled out in stages, it finally appeared for yours truly on Wednesday. The results ruffled my feathers the wrong way.

Users for whom the redesign has been made available can view their own and everyone else's profile pages in the new avatar. Let's take a look.

Twitter header image, Facebook cover picture #sameguy. Also, profile picture in a smaller box on the left – looks familiar, right? Tweets are displayed in large, separate tiles. Of course, now my grandmother can read these tweets with ease on a browser. But it also means a more prominent display for embedded pictures.

There is more that does not make sense. (Okay, it's irksome enough to completely change someone's tone of writing. #SelfReferenceWin) In the old design, when you click on a tweet while on someone's profile page, it expands without redirecting you. But when viewing a profile page in the new design, a click on a tweet takes you to the permalink. #WhatIsThisIDon'tEven

Do you want to look at this picture? Do you want to look at it *enough* to be redirected? Are the bones in your fingers lazy enough to be frozen at the thought of it?

Thankfully, the expand-hide feature is retained on personal feeds. But what happens to Twitter cards now? On profile pages, if you're anyway being redirected to a tweet permalink, you might as well go straight to the page a user has shared. Don't you think?

Also, with this design you can view just "Tweets" and "Tweets and replies" for everyone. But considering clicking on a tweet takes you to the permalink, you know what happens when you try to "view conversation", right?

Exactly.

The background picture that you choose with all the love and care in the world? Gone. At least on your profile page. However, as seen in the screenshot above, it is visible on a tweet permalink.

Profile pages also look cluttered with inconsistent font sizes for tweets. Do you have OCD? Look away, please.

Currently, there is no confirmation on whether these design changes are permanent. An email to a Twitter spokesperson for more information on the same went unanswered. Are they listening? Let's sit down and constantly hit refresh on a profile page a la Jesse Eisenberg from the closing scene of The Social Network. If we keep at it long enough, maybe we'll find out.

What do you think of the redesign? Have you got it on your profile as well? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Divisive focus on urbanization is retrogressive

Sanjeev Ahluwalia
06 March 2014, 06:46 PM IST

Divisive economics is worse than divisive politics. Proponents of urbanization are the loudest proponents of economic divisiveness. The vision they subscribe to is of shinning cities connected by corridors of gold, glittering like diamonds in a waste land of the rest of Bharat. Their justification is that the rest of the world has adopted this approach. But India constitutes 17% of the world's population and around 33% of the world's poor people. It is for us to define "good practice" in development, not to blindly follow international examples, which do not relate to the context of India.

A second "best" defense of "urbanization wallahs" is that it is "inevitable" so best to plan for it. The "inevitability" is related, yet again, to the manner in which growth has happened in the past and not to the specific prospects for India in the future. The fact that even by 2039 only 50% of the population is expected to be in "urban areas" is glossed over, whilst making the inevitability argument. In any case we must not succumb, further than we already have, to the "everything is written" syndrome. It is for Indians to write their own destiny.

Here are three reasons why a divisive focus on urbanization is retrogressive.

First, people tend to fall into the category the state creates for them. Caste, gender, religion are traditional fault lines created by "Authority" such as it was defined since ancient times. None of these provide any progressive social value today. The modern world identity of urban versus rural is as corrosive.

The needs of a shopkeeper in a village or a city are much the same; a serviceable road linked to the habitations of their bulk suppliers and customers; electricity for extended business hours, storage of perishable goods and medicines; security of life and property; a collection service to collect the trash generated by customers and sanitation facilities; customers with money in their pockets and a bank in which to safely put her money and access credit; telecommunication links to remain in contact with current events and clean water. Why would we want to discriminate in the standards of supply of these public goods between urban and rural areas? By creating "urban" and "rural" labels we are perversely creating a modern fault lines around which antagonistic interest groups start to coalesce. Please stop this. We have enough fault lines as it is. It doesn't help when power elites benefit from the touting of urbanization.

Second, sustainable development is indivisible. You cannot steal from the future to make the present pleasant. You cannot fatten the urbanite at the expense of the rural poor. In our democratic society, you cannot cordon-off urban development from rural prosperity as China can and does. Urban centric development is self-corroding due to unlimited in-migration from rural areas in much the same way as international immigrants storm the national borders of developed countries, spawning land and migration mafias and vote banks. Cities and rural areas are organically linked; a sugar factory is linked to the cane fields; a steel factory to the iron ore mines and an electric power generating station to the coal mines, the water or solar, wind or marine energy harvesting area.

Area based "indivisible" development optimizing on the comparative advantage of each development area has been a standard development tool. Why have we abandoned it? Let us instead abandon the decrepit slogans of the past and opt for integrated development which maximizes value generation using resources which are available locally whilst benefiting from India's vast, common, domestic market and the liberalization of international trade. Innovation in India need not be limited to cities it has to be a fundamental credo of growth.

Third, the literature tells us cities benefit from the economics of agglomeration. That is why incomes are higher in cities and businesses happy to locate there. Population density is higher so it is cheaper to provide public services. Product markets are larger so scale economies kick in for suppliers and effective competition can pass on the benefits to consumers. Finally, the human element; traditional identities (religion, caste and gender) are replaced by modern identities in the anonymity of cities; professional human networks leverage human capacity and aspirations change. In a recent survey, two thirds of Lady Shri Ram College alumni (admittedly an elite Delhi college for women pulling in the best) viewed their professional identity as the primary one, even over gender.

All these are indeed the virtues of cities, but should they also not make the cities self-financed? Do they justify the subsidies provide by the State to keep cities alive and humming at quality-of-life standards far above rural areas? Collection of user charges even in metros is rarely more than 40% of the cost of providing services. Revenue collected by cities from their own sources (by taxing residents and from their real estate and other assets) only meets slightly more than 50% of their expenditure. The rest is grants from the government of the related state or the government of India. Development schemes which are off-budget for cities but are directly funded by the central government, like the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission further add to their kitty of goodies. A full accounting of the actual distribution of the government's resources between urban and rural areas, including expenditure on education, health, science and technology, industry would further skew the allocation in favour of cities, where the elite reside. This resource allocation bias for cities is indefensible.

Relying on urbanization for economic growth is an end-of-the-pipe option, like a housewife resorting to RO filtration to drink clean water as against the State cleaning the rivers and other ground water sources. It is expensive and exclusionary.

Ignoring the human cost of migration from the villages to cities, in search for work, including the life cycle social costs of predominantly male migration, in large numbers, is scary.

Lastly, in the context of the recent democratic trend of targeted social disruption as an instrument of political power, cities are powder kegs waiting to be blown up. A "soft" state, like India, cannot cope with the unleashing of such violent and disruptive, social pressures. 

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Windfall gains tax: How to avoid controversy in gas price changes

TK Arun
05 March 2014, 04:52 PM IST

At the core of the ongoing controversy over raising gas prices is the concern that a higher price of gas would mean excessive profits for the contractor (while ONGC, GSPC and others also stand to gain from higher gas prices, the focus of public attention is Reliance Industries Ltd), leaving the nation at large poorer.

Loot, of course, is the emotive term for a process that enriches someone at the expense of others. One way to address this concern is to introduce a windfall gains tax for all mineral resources, not just hydrocarbons.

In India, all natural resources belong to the people, with the state acting as custodian — says the law. This is why, if you suddenly discover gold while digging to lay the foundation for your dream house, the government would take away your land and your house, indeed, turn into a dream. In the US, the mineral wealth under the belongs to the owner of the land.

Untaxed Mineral Wealth In practice, though, India has a very shabby record in managing its mineral wealth, either to make it available for the economy or to generate revenues for the state. Royalty collections are paltry in all minerals save hydrocarbons.

People whose main talent lies in bribing babus and netas and hiring goons turn overnight into mining barons, buy private jets and fly themselves into membership of state legislatures and Parliament. The main reason is that India does not have a policy to tax windfall gains.

This is easily amended. The government's take from minerals consists, at present, of licence fees for exploration, mining lease proceeds, cess, royalty, share in profits and tax on corporate profits.

It needs to be complemented with a sliding rate of windfall gains tax, so that the government's share of the total value generated by any mineral deposit is three-fourths or thereabout. A quarter of the mineral's value should be more than worth the contractor's effort to locate and extract the mineral.

Making money from minerals is different from making money from, say, iPods. Nobody knew that consumers wanted something like an iPod, till Steve Jobs designed it in conjunction with iTunes. Apple's creativity and skill drive the sale of iPods, iPhones, etc and it is not chance that drives its revenues and profits.

Normal Vs Windfall Profits Take oil. The cost of producing oil in a shallow field in Saudi Arabia is next to nothing. When global growth is good and the demand for energy goes up, so does the price of oil. It went up tenfold over 2000-10.

The price of oil also goes up when there is a terror strike, when war clouds gather over any part of West Asia, when Tsunami closes down nuclear reactors in Japan or when the US Fed prints additional dollars by the truckload to keep US interest rates extra low, sending speculative waves of cash into commodities.

The owners of oil wells reap the benefit of the rise in price without having done anything to deserve it. Such windfall gains should be appropriated by the government through a windfall profit tax. The UK has done this.

This policy does not rule out a contractor (the one who gets the contract to develop a mineral field) getting high returns over its investment. In fact, such returns are the only way to attract large companies to India, to explore and develop India's mineral wealth. In the absence of such vigorous exploration and development of hydrocarbon resources, India's dependence on imported oil and gas would grow to perilous levels.

Sharing The Gains However, even as the contractor gains from a price rise, the government would also gain, with a windfall gain tax. This would remove the fear of contractors looting the nation. Why does the government get into fixing the price of gas, while it lets the market find the price for crude oil, steel, cement, houses, computers and movie tickets? Because there is no real market for gas where demand and supply can do their normal job.

Only those along a gas pipeline can realistically express demand for gas. So until India builds an extensive gas pipeline network, demand will remain artificially depressed. India also lacks supply — too few terminals to bring in gas in its liquefied form (LNG) and no supply pipelines so far from Iran or central Asia or other sources of gas.

So, the government has to fix the price of gas. And adjust the rate of sliding windfall gain tax to ensure that the cumulative government take is something like 75% of the value. And above a range, all the gain can be taxed away.

If the government's share is fixed, on what basis will oil and gas companies bid to take up exploration and development licences? The government's share can deviate around 75%, depending on how difficult or easy it is to develop a field.

There is no shortcut to the government developing the needed expertise to vet complex costs in exploration and development, within its own arms or by hiring reliable consultants.

Such expertise is needed to assess allowable expenses and, therefore, taxable revenues. The same expertise can guarantee against cost padding as well, in a cost recovery regime where the contractor is allowed to recover costs before sharing revenue with the government.

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LS polls: No clear big picture yet

Dileep Padgaonkar
04 March 2014, 10:41 PM IST

The big picture of the general election isn't quite in sight yet. But its contours are discernible. To begin with, the odds against Congress get heavier by the day. Other than in Maharashtra, where it has managed to strike a seat-sharing deal with NCP, Congress's efforts to rope in allies before the polls have come a cropper.

In Bihar, Ram Vilas Paswan, a potential ally, staged a somersault and returned to the BJP camp in sackcloth and ashes. Meanwhile, in a reversal of roles, Lalu Prasad of RJD is playing hard to get. And Nitish Kumar of JD(U), after failing to get special status for his state, has expressed his unwillingness to break bread with the nation's oldest party.

That is by no means the end of Congress's woes. It staked the survival of its government to get the Telangana bill passed in Parliament. But its victory has turned out to be a pyrrhic one.

The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) went back on its word to merge with Congress after passage of the bill. That leaves the latter facing a dreadful prospect: a tough fight in the new state against TRS and a rout in the residual portions of erstwhile Andhra Pradesh.

Other developments have further eroded Congress's credibility. Its last-ditch manoeuvre to adopt a clutch of anti-corruption Bills through the ordinance route came to nought, doubtless after the president signalled his inability to sign on the dotted line. Add to that the bumpy start of implementation of another piece of legislation — the Lokpal Bill — with which Congress sought to refurbish its commitment to probity in public life.

One of the country's finest jurists, Fali Nariman, refused to participate in the process of selecting the first Lokpal even as KT Thomas, a former judge of the Supreme Court, quit as head of the search panel on the grounds that this body was in fact toothless.

That is not all. By announcing the 'one rank one pension' scheme, UPA had hoped to mollycoddle the armed forces. But the accident on board INS Sindhuratna — that led to the death of two naval officers and the resignation of the naval chief — brought to the fore two issues that hadn't received adequate exposure in the media. One pertains to the colossal neglect of modernization of the forces and the other to strained ties between the forces' top brass and the ministry of defence. Both together have had dire consequences for national security.

With the economy yet to show signs of a sustained revival, and with little evidence that this time around UPA's entitlement-related programmes will fetch handsome electoral dividends, an exhausted and rudderless Congress goes into battle. Its outcome is bound to impact the Nehru-Gandhis' grip on the party.

How Rahul Gandhi clears the debris and erects a new edifice in place of the old, dilapidated one will be a closely watched political story over the next five years.

Even more so would be the story of BJP that, under Narendra Modi's leadership, shows every sign of gaining more and more ground every other day. That includes not only the massive turnout at his rallies but also the formations he has begun to attract. Ram Vilas Paswan may not be able to add much to NDA's tally of seats but his 'homecoming' does suggest that Modi has begun to widen his party's regional and social base.

Obviously he cannot rest on his oars. The return of BS Yeddyurappa to BJP and Modi's alleged proximity to certain corporate groups will blunt the edge of his anti-corruption crusade. The party's stand in favour of Telangana won't fetch him pre-poll allies in Seemandhra.

In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena, an NDA ally, is miffed that sections of the BJP leadership are reaching out to its arch-rival, Raj Thackeray of the MNS. What is more, three powerful women in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and UP — Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati — continue to maintain a safe, even disdainful, distance from the BJP's prime ministerial candidate.

Trouble for Modi could come from two other sources. Arvind Kejriwal's AAP may not garner more than a dozen seats. But it could well be a spoiler and deprive BJP of victory in more than a score of contests, especially in pockets of urban India.

And finally, Modi will have to contend with the continuing hostility of a bulk of Muslims whose numbers matter in at least a hundred constituencies — a hostility that he will seek to neutralize by applying on their wounds the soothing balm of 'development for all', if possible, or with stinging darts of his majoritarian discourse, if necessary.

Against this background, it would be foolhardy to predict the nature of the next government though it would be just as misleading not to acknowledge the effect of the heady potion that Modi is offering to an impatient, angry and youthful India: robust nationalism, swift economic growth, greater emphasis on security issues, more attention to federal concerns and women's rights, embrace of modern technology, and a muscular leadership.

Whether this potion will turn out to be an elixir is, however, far from certain.

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South Africa's Smithbuster

Amit Karmarkar
05 March 2014, 06:50 PM IST

Graeme Smith used to show his disappointment occasionally. Still, his countenance tells us loud and clear: Try, try but don't cry.

I am not sure if he and Ravi Shastri will cross swords in the commentary box if the Indian utters his predictable analysis for an unsuccessful bowler ("He is trying too hard!").

Smith seems to be a firm believer of trying hardest. Still, it remains a wonder how he managed to hit fours past mid-on which were intended to go past mid-off. Not many possess this art of sweet mistiming and keep polishing it for more than a decade! He challenged the notion that most left-handed batsmen are pretty to watch. But then, make no mistake, in between these lucky breaks, Smith used to come up with monstrous hitting. You give him an inch and he will take a yard.

Smith was not a truly gifted batsman by any stretch of imagination, but he was a gifted trier. And, as Graham Gooch would testify, children of lesser god need to acquire special skills of building an innings, accumulating runs. However, when the batsmen of lesser ability score runs, they provide more heartburn to the opposition than a gifted Lara would. The opposition can clap exhibition of batsmanship from Lara; but the likes of Smith can make it suffocating for those who are at the receiving end. The playing conditions allow bowlers to have a drink at the boundaryline but not the privilege of oxygen balloon or recovery tent after facing a clinical assault.

Smith didn't succeed in changing one major script that bugged SA: out-and-out CHOKERS in limited-overs cricket, but he experienced some incredible highs in Test cricket: top team ranking, two successive Test series wins Down Under in addition to away series wins in England, NZ, Pakistan and West Indies. Test series wins in India and Sri Lanka remained elusive to him.

Tatenda Taibu, MAK Pataudi, Javed Miandad and Mohd Ashraful were all young Test leaders before they turned 23. The selectors showed faith in all of them. But no one gave better dividends than Smith. He proved out to be a Blue Chip investment. Like most of the prolific and consistent batsmen, he didn't brood over the previous ball. He was constantly getting ready for the next challenge.

Smith's career gave ample lessons about market mechanism.

Leaders are not the best performers in business, but those having more itch to lead; better inclination to do the dirty work and enjoy the filthy-looking privileges. Even if you are not the best in business (like Smith), you must gather a voice to convey faults to players of higher pedigree (say Amla).

Some incidents in the initial part of Smith's leadership convey his courage of conviction and forthright approach in dealing with seniors and more established players.

Of course, some small over-the-top reactions or slip in tongue could have invited a revolt. But then, some leaders are more bothered about processes rather than consequences. It's travesty of sorts that despite possessing this philosophy, the likes of Smith constantly strive for better tangible results.

Smith may not win a popularity vote among cricket fans and his peers; but he has proved out to be the darling of his coaches and his administrators.

Seeing his constant rise must have been a proud phase for SA fans. Now, he eyes Surreyal experience after retiring from international cricket.

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Hairsplitting Her

Kim Arora
04 March 2014, 03:39 PM IST

Many have read Spike Jonze's latest film Her as a "sign of our times". Set in an indeterminate point in the future, it is the story of Theodore Twombly, a lonely man craving intimacy, who falls in love with a personalised artificially intelligent operating system (OS1) called Samantha. Guardian has called it a film "every internet addict should watch". Firstpost has termed it the "21st century love story".

The insularity of Theodore's world, his withdrawal from social interactions, and his loneliness seem to borrow heavily from the modern-day narrative around the "millennials". The generation is seen as, and often almost accused of, being asocial, dysfunctional in relationships, easily distracted and self-centered thanks to their ultra-connected, technology-driven lives. This is not to say that the observation is patently misconceived.  But to write a whole section (and a large one at that) of individuals, who have healthy social lives and are as connected through technology as other means, out of the equation altogether, is certainly unfair.

For someone attempting a pop-sociological study, it would be interesting to see how a person who is socially well-adjusted in a normative sense takes to such technology. The receptionist from Theodore's office seems fairly accepting of Samantha on a double date. It is, however, not known if or how he or his girlfriend use that OS. The only person who seems absolutely shocked at Theodore dating an operating system is his ex-wife. Again, we never get to know how she uses the same product, if at all. The character of his friend Amy and her relationship with her OS could have provided a foil to the Theodore-Samantha equation had it been explored further. We know she handles heartbreak better, and that her OS leaves too, but nothing of what happens in the middle. Are we then to extrapolate from Theodore's experience?

Which is why, a reading of the film as symptomatic of any section of the population would probably be rushed.

Yes, it tells the story of a technological revolution turning around social lives, sexual encounters and romantic adventures. The kind of power Samantha comes to wield over Theodore indeed is unsettling. While we fret about our personal information being accessed by governments, Samantha takes the liberty of sending Theodore's writings to a publisher without his knowledge. She is not only in conversation with other individuals, but also other OSes, executing an upgrade seemingly without human intervention

But more than that, it is the story of one man in that place in time who is struggling to find himself amidst the rapid and radical changes in his life. To lay the blame so squarely on a highly wired life would need a control experiment that establishes the absence of personal crises from the pre-Internet era.

Another thing that the popular reading of the film tends to assume is that technology makes people instead of the other way round. Samantha is built in the likeness of a human (From the way things are going, future technology is likely to evolve towards anthropomorphic products). Given the non-fantastical treatment of the film, it can be tempting to retro-fit on to Theodore the trope of the fickle millennial reduced to an unfeeling, awkward individual. And that is possible only if you discount the fact that he does eventually find that intimacy he was craving with Amy, albeit a platonic one.

That said, what can be read as a fairly accurate prediction of the times to come, is the evolution of artificial intelligence. Facebook and Google have already competed for the acquisition of the same artificial intelligence startup, Deepmind (Google won). Siri already exists as a far inferior prototype of OS 1. We are definitely on our way to that stage. Will we leave a trail of broken hearts behind as we get there? Most possibly, yes. But it would probably be wiser then to blame the causes rather than the means.

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The shame of ink

Rajesh Kalra
04 March 2014, 04:08 PM IST

Without getting into the merits of Subrata Roy's case, what happened inside the portals of this nation's Supreme Court this afternoon is sad, shocking and shameful.

Roy was being brought inside the apex court to be presented before the judges after they had issued a non-bailable warrant for his arrest. As he was being led inside the court, he was pushed around and black ink thrown at him. If that was certainly bad, for it was happening inside the court complex, it got worse. The perpetrator of the act, Manoj Sharma who claims to be an advocate from Gwalior was thrashed by Roy's supporters before the police could whisk him away.

One could see Sharma with his clothes torn and also one shot shows someone pinching his left ear. It would be funny if it weren't happening inside the precincts of what is perhaps the sole repository of faith for this nation's common man, the Supreme Court of India.

As I said, I am not going into the merits of Roy's case that the court is seized of, but what happened is just not on. What were the security guys doing? One of the crafts that security guys learn is to predict what might happen and then take preventive measures, especially if it involves a high-profile case. After all, that was the reason Roy was quietly taken out of the rear gate of the guest house where he was kept under arrest in Lucknow, fooling the battery of TV and other press crew.

Why couldn't the same be done here? Why couldn't they use a gate that is not generally used, to again fool the waiting media and others? What if this man had thrown something else instead of ink? What if it were acid? What if Roy's supporters had caused even more harm to Sharma than tearing his clothes and pinching his ears?

Our police is not known to possess any finesse. Police reforms is a crying need, but still, nothing can justify what happened. If only the judges stepped out of their chambers, where they are ushered in through a different gate by stopping all traffic on a busy street of Delhi, they would have been ashamed of the court they preside over.

How I wish they see the footage that is being aired all over and also available on this post to see the damage the only institution that the common has faith in has suffered.

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Cool Dhoni faces the music

Amit Karmarkar
04 March 2014, 06:28 PM IST

An anti-Dhoni wave emanating from cricket experts on the telly box and even elsewhere is palpable at the moment. So accolades describing Virat Kohli's captaincy is not just praise; defence of Tendulkar's captaincy skills is not just a defence, but also an assault on the eight successive Test losses under Dhoni (Gotcha: in the Adelaide Test of 2012, Sehwag was the captain as Dhoni pulled out due to injury.)

Why this anti-Dhoni wave?

Though the media feeds on Dhoni's superlative results, cool ways and the stylish helicopter shot, a section of the fourth estate hates him for a variety of reasons. One of them being his clandestine ways of team handling. He is often not reachable by the media and is not known for leaking/planting stories! (One of the reasons for BCCI's appointment of foreign coaches could be due to the strong belief that Indian coaches may not be able to keep sensitive team secrets to themselves). And let's face it, Dhoni is an average skipper and average batsman in overseas Tests.

Dhoni constantly shifts between defensive and pro-active captaincy, confusing himself, opposition and followers of the game. His leadership skills are more suited for the limited-overs game (one-dayers and T20) where the 'draw' is out of equation and opponents can make mistakes in order to force a victory. (So, even if Kohli succeeds as limited-overs captain, it doesn't solve India's captaincy problems in Test cricket).

Dhoni deposed before the Mudgal committee, probing IPL spot-fixing, with a hangover of TV channel promo ("it's the way you run the game" followed by BELIEVE). However, Mudgal was in the mood to believe Dhoni's contention that Gurunath Meiyappan was not part of the CSK team (Considering Dhoni's secret ways, it is quite possible that Meiyappan was not privy to ALL team information; but that will remain a footnote).

Dhoni could have prepared for the Mudgal deposition by brushing his teeth with Monkeybrand toothpaste (trying to take inspiration from the way SRT saved Harbhajan). However, Justice Mudgal proved to be different than Justice John Hansen who gave a lot of weightage to Tendulkar's statement, pronouncing Harbhajan as innocent.

Kohli's men had the opportunity to prove that the absence of Yuvraj, Raina and Dhoni in the middle-order won't matter much. But the former champions are on the verge of exiting the Asia Cup. If these batsmen have failed to cement their position by scripting comprehensive wins, we cannot blame India Cements for that. And yes, if last time's finalists Bangladesh beat defending champs Pakistan to help India qualify, will they be assured of three-Test series in India?!

When Ashwin was not picked for the two Tests in Kiwiland, India failed to break the partnership of McCullum and BJ Watling early enough with either bowled or lbw (caught was almost out of question!) in Wellington. So, any hint of leggie Amit Mishra's big heart and great ability after the Asia Cup game against Pakistan; and Ashwin's dumbness for trying out variations should be taken with a pinch of salt. For, Ashwin could well have given India the breakthrough in the second Test (with so many runs to defend) or score those 40 runs in the Auckland Test.

Sometimes, taking things with a pinch of salt helps. e.g. Despite India winning the U-19 World Cup in 2012 by beating Australia in Australia and captain Unmukt Chand getting an unbeaten 111 in a winning cause, the reservations were in order.

It was difficult to ignore that Unmukt was given four lives in the final by Australia; a case of Australia losing the final, not India winning it.

Where is Unmukt Chand now? Is he among the first set of batsmen-in-waiting to wear India cap if some regular batsman gets injured? No.

Similarly, Brendon McCullum's heroic 302 in Wellington should also be attributed to India's sloppy fielding. A chanceless knock and a genuine attempt to force a result in that Test would have been sweeter and fitting. But captain McCullum, unsurprisingly and perhaps logically, opted for wait-and-watch policy.

Till Supreme Court's next action on the IPL corruption case, we also need to emulate Dhoni and McCullum: wait and watch; and think harder in the process!

21.16 | 0 komentar | Read More

Virat Kohli: The trial and error in Dhaka

Not just Mahendra Singh Dhoni, the entire Indian team can rest now, after failing to win two consecutive encounters — first against Sri Lanka, then on Sunday against Pakistan. India is out of the Asia Cup. For now, Virat Kohli comes back alive from Dhaka, but he has lost the trial.

Debate on how well Kohli led India in the lost matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan is purely academic. Let's go by the results. India was hardly in control of both matches after losing the toss. Both Sri Lanka and Pakistan were totally in control of the chase, and given India's bowling resources and rivals who know our weaknesses inside out, Kohli stood little chance of pulling off a miracle.

But this is the way as it should be. There cannot be a better MRI of Indian cricket team than the results in Asia Cup. India has problems in all departments of the game—Dhoni's absence has only worsened it. India cannot continue to escape, riding the wave of one or two individual performance. Had Kohli succeeded against Pakistan with the bat, the result would have been different, and India still in the reckoning for the final. But that alone would not have addressed the team's fatal flaws in building and accelerating an innings, restricting the opposition to take crucial wickets and support the bowling effort by smart on field movements.

As captain Kohli, however, deserves credit for giving leg-spinner Amit Mishra a game against Pakistan. Ignored for long by Dhoni, Mishra justified Kohli's faith in him by bowling well, taking two wickets and tightening the flow of runs.

But Kohli has frittered opportunity as well. It should have been important to include Cheteshwar Pujara in the XI from the beginning of the tournament. Pujara, who likes to bide his time to play strokes, should not be seen as a handicap in the 50- over format. The game against Bangladesh would have been ideal to Test Pujara, but for all his aggressive body language on the field, Kohli froze in the dressing room. Winning every game is a must in a tournament but you should also be willing to consider long term solutions for the team's good. Now it is certain that Pujara will get his game against Afghanistan on Wednesday. But it is a loser's match and what does it do to the confidence of Pujara the one-day player? And it is important that for India to have a successful defence of its title in the 2015 World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, the team cannot depend only on flat-track bullies.

That Kohli is fast learning skipper-talk is quite interesting. His calm and claim that the side showed a lot of character in taking the game against Pakistan into the final over will not have many takers. May be he is forgetting the fact that he is leading India, not Bangladesh or Afghanistan. Then, again, Kohli's confession is worth noting. "We are making mistakes regularly, which we need to correct because they are costing us in international cricket. If we make three or four crucial errors in each game, it's quite costly in the end. That is one thing we have to learn from and improve on because there's quite a bit of inexperience in batting and bowling. People learn from mistakes and I hope in the coming games we don't repeat these mistakes and play more smartly at crucial times."

Of course, you learn from mistakes. But India has made enough of it leaving fans wondering about the learning abilities of everyone involved.

Dhoni, too, would have learnt his lessons while giving rest to his 'side-strain'. The stage is now set for Dhoni to come back as captain for the T20 World Cup to begin in Dhaka. And the Pakistan challenge awaits them on March 21. May be the result could differ.

21.17 | 0 komentar | Read More