BJP won’t let Parliament function; nor the Executive….

Prashant Panday
24 November 2012, 10:29 AM IST

Day 2 of the winter session was a washout as expected. The pattern has become clear. Under any pretext, the BJP will ensure that Parliament is held to ransom. Then BJP spokespeople will rush to TV studios and spit out more venom at the Government and try to justify their unjustifiable blockade of democracy itself. Given their good oratorical skills, they will make it appear as if the Government has something to hide. Forget FDI in multi brand retail. The blockade could be for anything. The appointment of the new CBI chief, the new financial bills, anything.

Given its position as the principal opposition party, such conduct is unacceptable. Along with the ruling party, it has enormous responsibility in the running the country. It's like two surgeons who are performing an operation on a patient. One is the lead surgeon (the "attending" in the language of Grey's anatomy!) and the other is like an anaesthetist. The two have different jobs to do, but there are some places where their paths cross. The responsibility of the surgery is the attending's, but without the help of the anaesthetist, the surgery cannot be done. Now imagine, if the two can't stand each other. The anaesthetist wants to be the attending but is not being able to earn the chance. So he creates hurdles for the attending to try and make him fail. Does the anaesthetist care for the patient? Not one bit. The anaesthetist in our politics – the BJP – is doing the same thing.

So the BJP won't allow Parliament to function; ensuring that important bills are not passed. It spurned the co-operation talks with the PM and the FM – even though the bills under debate could resuscitate the patient (the economy) back to health – behaving like an irresponsible, immature child who is sulking over the snub on the discussion on FDI in multi brand retail. It couldn't care about what the nation wants in Parliament. In fact, its sole objective is politics and to make sure the duly elected government of the day is hobbled from performing.

We haven't heard of any specific opposition the BJP has per se with these bills. The bills have gone through standing committees no doubt in which the BJP must have had a chance to express its viewpoints and attempt to build a consensus. It is likely the Government would have accepted many, if not all, of these viewpoints. If the bill is now ready to be placed in Parliament and passed, how can a scuffle on another issue block the passage of these bills? A responsible, mature person knows how to compartmentalize issues. A disagreement over one issue does not stop him from working with the other person. This is not a choice that he gets to make. He is obligated to work with the other. If he doesn't work with the other person, he will be doing disservice to the people. It's that simple.

The BJP also won't allow the Executive to perform. It has questioned the enabling policy decision of FDI in multi-brand retail on the back of some unsustainable, political reasons. In the past it had blocked the appointment of the NCTC – though it was being set up as ordained under the Act passed by Parliament with the support of the BJP itself – under the pretext of federalism. Now it has objected to the appointment of Sinha as CBI chief, for some controversy 16 years back. Sinha is known to be an upright officer and has served the country in various capacities including handling graft in an earlier stint in the CBI. Indiatoday.in (the online portal of the India Today group – which has no love for the Congress) says that Sinha is a soft spoken officer with remarkable administrative acumen. The Patna HC indictment that the BJP referred to was in a case of corruption against Laloo in which Sinha recused himself because he came from the same state (Bihar). He was not  corrupt. If he was corrupt, he would have stayed on and tried to help Laloo. If he recused himself and earned the ire of the HC, its for the HC to answer why it was upset, not for Sinha. But for the BJP, Sinha is just a little foot soldier. The target is the Congress, not Sinha.

The BJP in any case is seeing its grand plot unraveling. The 2G "scam" has exploded in its face. Now with its leader and head of PAC, Murli Manohar Joshi being charged with an attempt to influence the report of the CAG (there has been enough speculation about the CAG cosying up to the BJP to secure a future ministerial posting under an NDA government), there is egg on the BJP's face. The Government's push towards cash transfers is another Executive decision that the BJP is mortally afraid of. When people get cash in their bank accounts at the end of every month, they are bound to vote for the party that made that happen. The BJP is suddenly finding its grand plans all coming unstuck. The only way it knows to stop this tide is to block Parliament. And the Executive.

It would help if the BJP focused more on a positive agenda, rather than pulling someone else down in a crabby way. The people would want to hear their views on FDI. What is the real reason they are opposed to FDI in retail? What is their plan for faster economic growth? How will they create more jobs? What kind of power policy do they support (since they oppose Kudankulam). Like it happens in America, we want to have a debate on specific points that concern development, not those aimed at scoring political brownie points.

The real truth is that the BJP is desperate. It will do anything and everything to stop the Parliament and Executive from functioning. As for its concern for the nation, the less said the better.

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Goodbye Schumi, and please stay away this time

Saibal Bose
24 November 2012, 12:42 PM IST

When Michael Schumacher sits down to introspect, he might come to a conclusion that coming out of his retirement was not a very good idea. The Formula One legend did not really do his reputation any good by returning to a sport he had ruled for such a long time. As he bows out again, he would be doing so without the shield of invincibility that he had acquired during late 1990s and early 2000s.

Schumacher is without doubt one of the greatest sportsmen ever to walk the earth, but then, as he retires for the second time, he will be doing so as an ordinary one. Not the legend that he deserves to be remembered as.

Did he have to come back? Maybe not. He had stayed away long enough to allow other drivers to not just catch up with him, but also prove that they were better. The Vettels and the Alonsos were clearly better drivers in the three years of Schumacher's second innings.

What made him come back? Was he convinced that he was still the best? Or were the financial gains too tempting to resist? Perhaps it was a combination of both. Mercedes, his team during his second innings finally ran out of patience and once they picked up Lewis Hamilton for the next season, it was quite evident that Schumacher was continuing his Formula One journey on borrowed time. There was no way they would renew his contract. Even if he had made himself available for another season, Schumacher perhaps would not have found any takers. He hadn't really done anything noteworthy in the past three years to inspire confidence among the constructors. Schumacher as a driver had a lot to give when he retired for the first time in 2006 as one of the best in business. And in 2012, as he retires again, the same Schumacher is just an ordinary driver, struggling to meet the standards set most of the other competitors.

Had he stayed out after 2006, the successes of the Vettels and the Alonsos would have been compared with him. There would always have been doubts whether these drivers could ever be as good as Schumacher. Whether they could come anywhere close to the standards he had set.

But now, we know that they are in fact better than him. Would they have been better than Schumacher when he was at his prime? That will continue to be debated. But then, that's a debate one would take with a pinch of salt.

Legends often have problems in timing their retirement right. Schumacher did not have that problem. His retirement was perfectly timed, only that his come back perhaps spoiled it a little. He will definitely receive a warm send-off this time too, but then it won't be same as in 2006.

When the drivers come back to race in the next season, no one would be talking about Schumacher. That stands in contrast to 2007, when he was missed. Every winner was being compared to Schumacher. This time, as he walks into sunset once again, the legend will take his shadow with him. An exit that will not leave behind too many fond memories.

Goodbye legend, and please stay away this time.

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Gujarat’s greatest gift – A politics built around development, stability and trust

Narendra Modi
24 November 2012, 01:25 PM IST

It is now a matter of few weeks before the people of Gujarat take part in the biggest festival of democracy, the elections. Over the past few months, I have had several opportunities to interact closely with many of you. Be it the Vivekananda Yuva Vikas Yatra, exchanging Nutan Varsh greetings or meeting party workers, I am glad to see a grand atmosphere of vibrancy and optimism across the length and breadth of Gujarat.

These new heights of development we have scaled would never have been possible without the political stability we have witnessed for more than a decade. Many of you must have seen the Gujarat where Governments did not last for long and there would be frequent games of musical chairs to capture power. All that is history now. The coherence as well as consistency in policy making has benefitted the people immensely. This political stability is nothing but a manifestation of the vision and farsightedness of the people of Gujarat, who have time again reposed their faith in development over everything else.

   

I am often asked this question- Modi ji what has been the most notable contribution of Gujarat in the last 11 years. You would expect me to say- we significantly reduced school drop out rates, gave a strong boost to girl child education, took the fruits of development to the Tribal areas of Gujarat, connected the poorest of the poor with technology, made Gujarat an industrial hub, witnessed record growth in agriculture etc.

But, for me the greatest contribution is something beyond this- it is the fact that over the years Gujarat has instilled a robust faith among the people in the political system and the institution of democracy, after it was systematically eroded by years of Congress rule in the decades after Independence.

Let me give you an example to illustrate my point. In the 1980s, former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi said that by the time a Rupee reaches the village, it becomes 15 paisa! This statement amazed me. When he made the comment, the Congress party's foothold in the nation's politics was complete- from the Panchayat till the Parliament they were everywhere and we were nowhere. So, what does this comment show – that the Congress is an expert at listing problems but when it comes to solutions we cannot expect anything.

Today, I am very proud of the fact that if a rupee leaves Gandhinagar, every single paisa reaches the intended beneficiary. Middlemen have long been reduced to a state of unemployment in Gujarat! This is just one of the reasons why people have developed immense faith in the system; with the same rules, same set up Gujarat has shown how it is possible to bring about a qualitative change in the life of the common man.

You would be surprised that even the allegations against us are, 'you built 350 schools instead of 500' or 'You promised 10 km roads but built only 8 km!' They are centered around development. But, can we say the same about our Congress friends? No! Nobody bothers to ask them about development. The only thing discussed is the number of scams and the ever increasing burden on the common man thanks to the absence of a Neta, Niti or Niyat in that Party.

Friends, the difference is fundamentally that of style of politics. The BJP is forever committed towards politics for development whereas the Congress is a dyed in the wool exponent of votebank politics. Remember how they divided brother from brother, friend from friend in Gujarat. Be it a Rath Yatra or a cricket match, curfew was all-prevalent in the state. Today, ask a child the meaning of curfew and he would not even know it- this is the difference over the last decade.

I keep saying this very often- if the Congress wants Gujarat, they must wholeheartedly embrace politics of development rather than votebank politics. Till then, the people of Gujarat having known them so well will never give them a chance to enter our soil.

 Through the last many days, I am also meeting many of our Karyakartas and the joy in meeting these ever-passionate and motivated individuals is something words cannot describe! Our true strength is our Karyakartas and I congratulate them for the splendid work they are doing. I assure them that their efforts will not go in vain. We shall commence our march towards a Bhavya and Divya (glorious and divine) Gujarat from January 2013 and before that, we will celebrate another Diwali on 20^thDecember 2012, one that will grander than ever before…

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Under a Punjab sky

Arif Zakaria has dabbled in theatre, television and films. He was last seen in Vikram Bhatt's The Haunted. His role was appreciated and he has also been added to the star cast of Krrish 3 for a special cameo.

Arif Zakaria is best remembered for films like Darmiyan, Dance like a man, My Name is Khan and the musical play The Merchant of Bollywood.

The views expressed in Arif Zakaria's Blog are the author´s own.

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And thereby “hangs” a tale…

Rumy Agarwal
23 November 2012, 02:09 PM IST

India is rejoicing… Muhammad Ajmal Amir Kasab has finally been sent to the gallows. Justice has been meted out and, as Inspector Govilkar, who captured Kasab, told rediff.com, "We have proven to the world that we are a legitimate democracy."  How have we proven that, Sir?  Because there are a lot of uncomfortable questions which will need to be answered if we really wish to prove that we are "a legitimate democracy". But at the risk of facing extreme criticism from fellow Indians, I'd still like to say that I do not exactly know why, but I am saddened by the incident. NO, repeat NO, I have no sympathy for Kasab (no one in his/her right mind would !!), and I fully empathise with those who lost their own in the 26/11 terrorist attacks and now feel vindicated, but somehow this "hangman's justice" fails to excite or energise me. The jubilation and celebration reeks of the mindset of a medieval lynch mob cheering the death of the sinner and not the sin. I do not know whether I am right or wrong… it's just the way I feel. I know that the hapless survivors wanted justice, and very rightly so, but then, was there really no other way to procure it? Moreover, I don't understand how his death brings justice to the 26/11 victims, because Kasab was neither the architect of 26/11 nor its strategic mastermind and the  real culprits are roaming free in Pakistan, and India does not seem to have the diplomatic leverage over Pakistan to bring them to justice. All the cheering and the hurrahs is all about revenge, is it, and not so much about justice? Because, at best, Kasab's hanging is a very crude ballpark figure for justice, don't you think ?

Yes, readers of this blog post will bay for my blood, I know, but I wish somebody would help me understand why I am not exactly elated. Maybe it has something to do with my views on capital punishment…..? Maybe my schooling and upbringing had something to do with it, because I have been taught to believe that no loss of human life, however despicable the individual might have been, ought to be a reason for celebration. And as far as facts go, though India is not a signatory to the UN resolution banning the death sentence, we are still assailed by ambivalence on this subject. Those in favour of death penalty believe that it acts as a deterrent against murder. But I beg to belong to an old school of thought which wonders whether the wrong-doer could be helped to realize his mistake and make up to his victims in constructive ways—such that would benefit them as well as leave a lasting imprint on the culprit's mind so that he never makes the mistake again (remember Rajesh Khanna in the movie "Dushman" or Abhishek Bachchan in "Shararat"?) Yes, many of you may trounce me for an exaggeratedly romanticized view of things, but do you think such a thing could be possible in a remote and roseate future?

If I am sounding….or actually AM,… confused, it  is because certain issues being raised are making it seem that capital punishment is more about politics than about justice ! Like, what was it that made Kasab jump the queue when convicts like Afzal Guru, the perpetrator of terror attacks on Indian Parliament in December 2001, Balwant Singh Rajaona, the convict in the assassination of former Punjab Chief Minister Beant Singh and the three assassins of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi have been awaiting their executions for several years? Or, why is the timing of the hanging so suspect? Detractors of the UPA government have lost no time in pointing out that this was a strategic move to neutralize multiple challenges facing Congress—upcoming  Gujarat polls under Hindutva mascot Narendra Modi, Parliament session starting on Thursday and the fourth anniversary of Mumbai attacks just days away.  It is hoped that the execution will create a positive buzz about the Delhi regime that has to rectify the negatives plaguing it for a big part of UPA-2. Of course, the ruling party and the government strongly contested such motives, arguing that any date to execute the hated hitman would have led to similar conclusions. But these are debatable matters and pertain to politics which, to me at least, is as incomprehensible as rocket science.

Please tell me, then, is Kasab's hanging an occasion for unmitigated joy or are there some shades of grey, unexplained emotions which may be brought under the scanner?

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Are we ready for the next 26/11?

Sohel Sanghani
23 November 2012, 05:42 PM IST

Kasab's hanging has brought some degree of closure to the horrific Mumbai attacks. Yet the larger question of what India's response should be in the hours and days after the next major attack remains unanswered.

Our Prime Minister and his cabinet discovered in 2001-02 that mobilizing the entire army in response to the attack on Parliament was not the best strategy. Weeks passed before the formidable 'Strike Corps'  were  in  position  to launch an assault. This had allowed Pakistan to mobilize its own army and firm up its defenses. Had India gone ahead with the assault, what would have followed is a grinding war of attrition  where  progress  would  be  slow  and losses heavy on both sides. And even this would be the best case, for it ignores the possibility of nuclear escalation.

Part of the reason for the delay was the scale of deployment, numbering over 5 lakh troops, which was guided by the Sundarji (Rajiv Gandhi era) doctrine of massive conventional  retaliation.  The  delay  in  mobilization  allowed international diplomatic pressure to pile up against any Indian military response. Senior American officials were shuttling between New Delhi and Islamabad to try and prevent war, for this would have jeopardized their own efforts in Afghanistan.

A need was thus felt for a faster, nimbler mobilization that leads to limited action before Pakistani defenses or international diplomatic pressure have had time to kick in. Today, some call this 'Cold Start', while  others  deny its existence. The plan is to have smaller, division-sized units mobilize rapidly and capture limited Pakistani territory that can be used as leverage in subsequent negotiations. It's a nice idea, but faces two challenges.

The first is whether we can pull it off at all – do we have the requisite equipment, training and leadership talent to acquire and hold territory against a determined foe at short notice? The second, and  perhaps  more  important question is if Pakistan will resist using nuclear weapons if we launch Cold Start. Their recent testing of short-range missiles that will carry smaller warheads suggests a hot end to our advancing columns. Whether they  have  the capability and willingness to attack Indian divisions moving close to Pakistani towns and other population centers is uncertain.

So what else can we do? The idea of 'surgical strikes' by the Indian Air Force on terror camps in Pakistan was brandished in the wake of the Mumbai attacks. This may have been possible if these camps were  near  the  border.  The Sukhoi Su-30MKI, our flagship fighter-bomber is a very potent weapon. It has a long range (can be refueled mid-air), can carry a large payload and is an excellent dogfighter to boot. But  what  if  the  targets  are  deep  inside Pakistan? Say around Karachi, as Pakistani officials have recently admitted was the case with the Mumbai perpetrators. We do not have stealth aircraft that can penetrate Pakistani  airspace  undetected.  The  Sukhoi,  like  other aircraft in the IAF's inventory, is a very blunt instrument of war whose effective deployment may lead to escalation. Hence an air strike launched from the land is inherently risky.

So how about the sea? Our sole aircraft carrier, the INS Viraat is barely afloat and Pakistani F-16s may overwhelm the handful of Sea Harriers that it carries. An aircraft carrier battle group would also be an  attractive  target for both tactical nuclear and conventional strikes.

So it would seem that using our superior air and land forces is tricky. Indeed this is likely what has held us back in the past – are 100-200 civilian deaths a just cause for launching a war that could be far more costly in terms of human lives? Perhaps not. But this does not mean that we should continue to present a soft target. The use of force remains viable and deserves further exploration by our political leaders. There are other ways  through  which India can raise the cost of Pakistani misbehavior, to include acts of terror.

One possible option is to do what Israel did in the wake of the terrorist attack on its athletes during the Munich Olympics. Israeli intelligence agencies and special forces systematically targeted and eliminated  all  those  who were involved in the planning and execution of the attacks. There is no reason why RAW cannot emulate this if it is provided sufficient resources. Indian agents must already be deployed in Pakistan (at least one hopes  that  they are), and they should be leveraged to the fullest extent possible.

A second tactic could be interdicting Pakistani naval trade and supplies (including oil). The Indian Navy is a much stronger and better-equipped force and should be instructed to  selectively  sink  Pakistani  ships,  to  include merchant vessels. This should be done in a dispersed and unpredictable manner so that at no time can Pakistan use a nuclear weapon to sink a large part of our fleet. The pressure on Pakistan's weak economy will be severe  and  it should be sustained till the perpetrators of the attack are willfully handed over. Longer-range ship-based cruise missiles (like the Nirbhay, currently under development) should also be used to strike at targets within  Pakistan.
Their distinctive trajectory and smaller size makes them unlikely to be confused with ballistic nuclear missiles, preventing miscalculation.

A third tactic could be to reply in kind – there is much dissent within the Pakistani terror apparatus and India could assist rebel groups in their plans within Pakistan. But fighting terror with terror is not  in  our  character and it also raises the risk of losing the high moral ground that we continue to enjoy in the international community.

In the long term, we should endeavor to develop both viable stealth technology as well as an offensive drone program that can operate out of bases in Afghanistan, much as the American program is doing today. Taking out  non-state actors, including state-supported outfits like the Lashkar-e-Taiba needs to be done in a precise, low-intensity manner that does not threaten the survival of the Pakistani state, but raises the cost of adopting terrorism as an instrument of state policy.

It is the duty of every government to ensure the security of the people it serves. The Indian people will justifiably demand a visible and effective response after the next major attack. It is of course heartening to see  that  a growing number of leaders on both sides recognize that peace is the only viable long-term option. But as we have learnt repeatedly over the years, the best course for us is to plan for the worst, even as we hope for the best.

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The beard, burns and books

Abhilash Tomy
22 November 2012, 12:20 PM IST

Soon after crossing the equator we were fortunate to have wind and current assisting us in making a course as East as possible. The speed was good and there were days on which we did anywhere between 170-190 miles a day against the planned average of 150. Meanwhile, a cyclonic circulation was brewing south east of us around a closed isobar. My aim was to sail East of it, and having passed it make use of the trade winds to sail southward. So far, the plan has worked out despite the fact that winds have died down east of the circulation. But it is only a matter of time before we catch up with the trade winds that promise up to 30 knots of headwinds.

The sun, meanwhile, has considerably worked up its intensity. Its rays are so scorching that one might feel it would pierce through skin and body and come out the other way. Body hair is showing tell tale signs of bleaching- it has started turning golden brown in colour. The beard has grown beyond the point where it pokes your own skin and skin in other parts are peeling off. The heat is almost stopping the brain from functioning and I do need take more naps to cool it down. Sunburn is much more severe when you are at sea because of all the reflections of sunlight around you. On my part, I still refuse to wear sunblock preferring instead to wear clothes with high SPF value.

I thought I would read a lot in this voyage and I do like reading. Instead of choosing books myself, I asked a few of my reliable friends to contribute, so that the library I would carry would be more of a radio station than a collection of songs. I tried reading the moment I cast off and was over my sleep deprivation but somehow it did not catch on. What I could read turned out to be Tinkle comics and almost two years of Nat Geo issues that the ACK media team had gifted on the day of departure. Almost after ten days, I found what would be a safe bet for me anytime, anywhere, any weather- a book called One Hundred Years of Solitude. Having read that in a matter of two nights, I moved on to The Story of Philosophy by Will Durant. I find it incredibly engrossing and way different from other books I have tried to read on the subject. It has also sparked an intense desire to read Voltaire.

As I write this, there is another Indian Navy sailing vessel called the Sudarshini which is sailing on a voyage to South East Asia, She is a barque rigged tall ship forming a part of the Training Squadron. You can read her skipper's blog here.. http://www.aseanindia.com/skippers-blog

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Plastic waste as a symbol of luxury

Veeresh Malik
22 November 2012, 04:43 PM IST

 

What do circle rates for "posh" colonies and un-eaten airline meals have in common, you wonder, gentle reader? Well, for one - a loaf of bread. And therein lies a tale.

Many moons ago, crossing the Pacific by an airline from the mystic Orient, I was kind of really tired. Mumbai to Seoul, work there, and then another hugely long flight to Los Angeles. Where more work awaited. As a result, when meal time came around, I sort of pecked at the food and then just sub-consciously put it away, mostly uneaten, to resume staring out of the window.

A few minutes later a very dignified gentleman approached me, asked if he could talk with me, and then sat down in the seat next to mine - which happened to be vacant. He introduced himself as a senior official of the airline in question, going from Seoul to the US on a marketing mission, and then asked me why I had not eaten their food, was there something wrong, all this, very politely, seeking feedback.

Amazing way to spend time onboard, by airline officials flying on duty, if you ask me.

Not having thought about this myself, I looked at the tray again, and told him that on one end, I was really tired and on the other, the complete food looked and felt about as tasty as the plastic tray and cutlery it came with.

Valid point, he said, but the mainly plastic crockery and cutlery were part of security issues. but what did I mean, the food looked and felt like plastic, could I expand on that? So, both of us had a closer look at the Western meal I had been served, and sure enough, everything in it did look like plastic. Fixed easily, he said, and asked the cabin crew to get me a tray of their "normal" food, which was, how do we put it, more Asian, spicy, "curry", rice, chilly sauce, and noodles.

And you know what, suddenly, it did not look like plastic anymore. It also tasted good.

So as I was walking out this morning to also buy a loaf of bread and some eggs from the neighbourhood small retailer (non FDI), it hit me - the bread was wrapped in plastic, the eggs were presented in a small plastic bag and pretty much everything else in his shop was also wrapped or packed in plastic. Except for one particular brand of biscuits, the one with the little girl smilng on the tasty rectangles we dip in our tea or coffee which is still wrapped in butter-paper, everything was a bright reminder of plastic.

Pre-garbage plastic, that is, which really made everything in it look like ___t.

And sub-consciously, as I walked back through what are increasingly the decrepit streets of Defence Colony, lined with plastic garbage, unfinished roads, uncovered nullahs, open sewage, abandoned cars and more - it hit me. Everything out there on the roads looked like what was available in the shops.

Plastic wrappers, did not matter where they were, they just made everything so unappetising.

When can we go back, then, to paper packaging? Bakery products, soft drinks, quick bites, eggs, veggies, the whole lot.

Would make those increasing circle rates, therefore taxes, more bearable.

And probably make the food itself taste and look better, too?

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Epochal changes unfurl in the global oil industry

Pyaralal Raghavan
22 November 2012, 06:29 PM IST

Higher supply and lower fuel bills will benefit India substantially.

The global oil industry is going through some epochal changes that could have far reaching implications on energy prices geo political strategies. This is because of the sustained efforts to improve efficiency in use of energy and also due to substantial changes in supply and demand says the World Energy Outlook an annual publication brought out by the International Energy Agency.  A major outcome of these changes is that while the US becomes almost a net exporter of oil and gas the dependence of EU, China and India on imports shoots up. However the savings on the fuel bill will boost global output by around $ 18 trillion with India emerging as one the biggest gainers.

The trigger to these stunning developments is the policy and technological changes in the United States which is steadily pushing up light oil and gas production.  This will not only make the US, which now imports a fifth of its energy requirements, the largest oil producer in the world before the end of the decade, even overtaking Saudi Arabia, but also make the US almost a net oil exporter by 2030. The other equally significant development is the emergence of Iraq as the second largest oil exporter overtaking Russia in the 2030s. In fact the country is expected to contribute almost half the increase in global supplies during this period.

But what makes these supply side gains even more substantial are the energy conservation policies being implemented by most major oil consuming countries that have drawn up strategies to improve efficiency in use of energy. While the United States has adopted new fuel economy standards, China plans to reduce the oil intensity of production by 16% by 2015 while the EU plans to reduce energy consumption by 20% by 2020 and Japan plans to cut electricity consumption by 10% by 2030.

These efficiencies would be a game changer as improvements in oil use could halve the growth in global energy demand and also ensure that global oil demand first peaks a little before 2020 and then fall by as much as 13 million barrels a day by 2035. This is a significant decline which is almost equal to the current levels of oil produced by both Russia and Norway combined.  This will push down fuel bills by $ 17.5 trillion and also reduce supply side investment requirements by $ 5.9 trillion.

The end results of these efficacy gains would be reallocation of resource which will cumulative boost global economic output by $ 18 trillion by 2035 with most of the gains accruing to India, China, United States and Europe. The highest GDP gains would be in India (3%), followed by China (2.1%), US (1.7%) and OECD Europe (1.1%). That is indeed some comfort given the hard times that we now face due to the high global oil prices. However, India's dependence on imported gas is expected to almost double to 40% during the period while that on oil is expected to go up from around three fourths to 90%. Clearly the government has to go all out to end all oil subsidies and ensure a substantial improvement in the efficiency of use of oil if India is to fully reap the expected gains.

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Terror beyond Kasab

Minhaz Merchant
21 November 2012, 03:34 PM IST

Ajmal Kasab was a foot soldier in a venal chain that runs through terrorist training camps on the outskirts of Pakistan's major cities, links up with militants in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and ends in Rawalpindi GHQ.

The sanction for terror comes from the very top.

If it did not, Hafiz Saeed would not be allowed to spread his poison openly, thinly disguising the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) as a charitable organization. Without money, arms, training – and sanction – from within the Pakistan establishment, 26/11 would have been impossible to execute.

26/11 was a defining moment. Till then, Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and military had followed a low-intensity policy of proxy terrorism. The attack on parliament was an exception. Most terror plots were aimed at trains, buses and markets – the poor suffered most and their cases were soon forgotten.

26/11 changed all that. Kasab was caught, imprisoned, tried and executed largely because of the bravery of a few Mumbai policemen, especially Tukaram Ombale who died while arresting him near Girgaum Chowpatty, South Mumbai, as he tried to escape in a hijacked Skoda car.

The three days during which Kasab and nine other Pakistani terrorists held Mumbai hostage have left a scar on the city. Kasab's execution will not heal it fully till the men who trained him, funded him, indoctrinated him and mentored him are brought to justice.

What does the timing of Kasab's hanging signify? Discarding conspiracy theories over his prior death due to dengue, consider the context. First, it comes on the heels of the sudden cancellation of Pakistan Interior Minister Rehman Malik's planned trip to India this week.

Second, it was preceded by an unusually firm statement by the PMO that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would not visit Pakistan in the near future since progress on bringing the perpetrators of 26/11 to book was unsatisfactory.

Third, it represents the quickest decision to reject a mercy petition by an Indian President. Pranab Mukherjee has 19 other mercy pleas before him; 300 convicts are currently on death row. In office for just four months, President Mukherjee has shown a decisiveness absent in his predecessor.

Pakistan was informed of Kasab's hanging in advance by letter and fax. The High Commission in Delhi reluctantly accepted the communication though Pakistan has long admitted Kasab was its citizen. This continuing pretence of denial is exactly what it seems – pretence. Pakistan's military establishment is deeply complicit with terrorists of the Laskhar-e-Toiba (LeT) and the JuD.

As David Coleman Headley (original name: Daood Sayed Gilani) and others have testified, senior officers of the Pakistani army and the ISI are directly involved in training, funding and mentoring terrorists for attacks in India.

The intensity and frequency of these attacks have reduced since 26/11 for two reasons.

One, America's war on al-Qaeda has drawn significant Pakistani military resources and attention away from India to North and South Waziristan. Attacks on Pakistani military targets by the Tehreek-e-Taliban, which is hostile to the Pakistani establishment (unlike the Haqqani and Hekmatyar networks which support Rawalpindi), have further distracted Islamabad.

Two, intense US (and latterly Saudi) diplomatic pressure on Pakistan has led to the deportation of fugitive terrorists like Abu Jundal and Fasih Mohammad from Riyadh. Till last year, Pakistan could count on Saudi Arabia as a source for funds and a safe haven for terrorists. But with change sweeping West Asia, Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi monarchy is under pressure.

Protests in neighbouring Bahrain (which has a Shia majority) were put down with the help of the Saudi military. More protests against dictatorial-monarchies have broken out in the past few days in Jordan, till recently a relatively stable Hashemite kingdom.

Squeezed between the suddenly chastened Saudis and the relentless Americans – their two erstwhile pillars of support – Pakistan's terror options have narrowed.

India's growing economic, military and diplomatic clout now presents New Delhi with the opportunity to cauterise the terror threat from Pakistan at its source – Rawalpindi GHQ – where India-centric, Scotch-swilling Pakistani Generals still harbor ill-will over Bangladesh and Kargil and entertain atavistic, mythical notions of Pakistan's ability to pressurise India with the old tactic of proxy terrorism.

Sadly, while educated Pakistanis form a sizeable peace constituency for India, the majority of ordinary Pakistanis continue to be fed on a diet of anti-India propaganda. The disinformation begins in secondary school with text books spreading anti-India poison. Rising politicians like Imran Khan pander to this populism by harping on Kashmir and treating the medieval Taliban with kid gloves.

Former dictators like Pervez Musharraf, the "butcher of Kargil", are discredited everywhere except in India where he finds a ready audience for his solutions to the Kashmir problem, including "demilitarisation" and disarming Indian security forces. He does not add that, first, Pakistani-funded terrorists should  be disarmed or they will have a  free run of J&K.

Musharraf also raises the old myth of 1948-vintage United Nations resolutions on J&K when he knows perfectly well that those resolutions are invalid because they were conditional on Pakistan vacating Pakistan-occupied Kashmir(PoK).  

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Will there be retaliatory terror attacks on Indian targets by the LeT and JuD following Kasab's hanging? No more than there would otherwise have been. Terrorists understand the language of strength, not weakness.

What will be the political fall-out on the confidence building measures (CBMs) between the two countries? Again marginal. Pakistan has more to lose than India from CBMs faltering. Kasab was a cog in Pakistan's terror wheel and Islamabad will not jeapardise the cricket-and-music diplomacy that will unfold this winter. Besides, it has its eye fixed firmly on "resolving" Siachen where it is bleeding men and material.

With Kasab's execution, the families of the 166 victims of 26/11 have received partial justice. But the puppeteers of 26/11, led by Hafiz Saeed and Zaki ur Rehman Lakhvi, have not yet felt the full force of the law. Till they do, there can be no closure for the victims of 26/11.

And until the factories of terror that dot Pakistan, churning out Kasabs by the dozen, are shut down, India cannot lower its guard either.

Follow @minhazmerchant on twitter

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