12 November 2012, 06:31 PM IST
Within a few days the 21st ASEAN Summit and 7th East Asia Summit (Nov.15-18) would take place in Cambodia which would be attended by US, Russian and Indian leaders among others. There is much speculation about the discussion on the South China Sea disputes. While China is seen as obstructing the inclusion of South China Sea disputes in the agenda, other nations involved in the disputes desire serious discussion during the Summit. The suspicion is that Cambodia the present chair may yield to the pressure of China and not allow discussion on the South China Sea.
Cambodia has accepted more than US$10 billion in foreign aid, soft loans and investments from China over the last 18 years, and it is said that Cambodia acted under pressure from China in July this year when ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting under the Cambodian chairmanship failed to issue a joint communique at the end of the meeting. This was unprecedented in the history of 45 years. The statement itself is normally unremarkable but what members involved in the dispute did not like China and Phnom Penh's apparent use of the chair to do Beijing's bidding despite the wishes of fellow ASEAN members. This clearly shows that the South China Sea disputes are still hostage to the Chinese policy of not holding dialogue at multilateral platform. They did not like in particular, Cambodia's refusal to cater for Manila's demands that the statement concerning disputes in the South China Sea should mention its standoff with China at Scarborough Shoal.
Even recently China, ASEAN meetings did not witness any progress on the issue of South China Sea disputes. Senior officials from ASEAN and China failed to make demonstrable progress toward a binding Code of Conduct during an informal ASEAN-China meeting October 29 in Pattaya, Thailand, and a two-day workshop November 1–2 in Phnom Penh. Both meetings concluded with officials vowing to implement the non-binding 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea only. This brings to the conclusion that the much-anticipated Code of Conduct would not be signed at this month's East Asia Summit in Cambodia.
While it is certain that Vietnam and the Philippines and may be Indonesia and Brunei would raise the issue in the Summit, China would in all likelihood oppose the discussion. Cambodia which should play the role of honest broker should help in placing the item in the proper session to ensure proper discussion. If Cambodia does this it would be able to restore its credibility amongst the ASEAN members, which eroded after the July ARF meet.
The Chinese should also read the writings on the wall. While outside powers are not interested in taking sides in the disputes, they are interested in in the freedom of navigation and the security of sea lanes, which connects Indian and Pacific Oceans. In addition they also realise that the region has potentials for producing oil which is becoming scarce. The strategic location of the South China Sea adds to the value of the region. Therefore it is natural for them to remain interested in the resolution of disputes in a peaceful manner. The intransigent attitude of China in discussing the issue at proper forums and continued efforts to claim the all most entire South China Sea is pushing the outside powers to the side of smaller neighbours of China. The marginalisation of China would not be in the interest of China itself. Besides coming under international pressure, it would see its trade getting adversely affected. The new leadership fortunately is interested in the growth of trade for the development of China.
The Chinese build-up of its military apparatus and naval development with increasing aggressiveness in the disputed areas have generated a fear amongst the smaller countries that China is going to use its military muscles against the smaller countries. Its 13 Department Committee formed to project its claims is being seen as yet another evidence of the Chinese unwillingness to have a binding Code of Conduct.
The events this year reflect that the situation has not improved since last year when it was decided to have a Code of Conduct. There had been several incidents that reflected the fragility of the situation. These involved not only the Philippines but also Vietnam and Japan on the Senkaku islands. Some good drafts of the Code of Conduct have been prepared which are under consideration. Some of these drafts envisage a permanent mechanism for dispute resolution and management of the area under dispute.
China as the major player in the region has a greater responsibility for taking steps to resolve the issue to enable it-self and other nations to focus on economic development of the all the nations.
The following needs to be done and China should take the lead in this context-
• Utilise the Summit to discuss the issue in proper session. The Summit provides a valuable opportunity for leaders to engage on key strategic, political and economic issues of common concern, with the aim of promoting stability and economic prosperity in the region.
• Allow open discussion on the subject among the experts from the involved nations to consider all possible steps. The drafts of Code of Conduct should be considered for adoption. In addition, the six-point principles brokered by Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa be given due attention.
• Nationalistic sentiments should not be allowed to over-shadow the possible options.
• Do not take steps to militarise the region which have adverse impact on the peace and tranquillity of the region.
If the above steps are taken by China a peaceful resolution of the disputes would be possible. This in turn would allow the growth of Chinese trade and would help in building closer relations with other powers. China must take into account that neither military steps nor aggressive posture would help in the resolution of the problem. On the other hand continued tension would bring the outside powers in the region that would make the resolution more difficult and result in the marginalisation of China. India which has declared that the South China Sea is the property of the world should join hands with all the members of ASEAN and others interested in the peaceful resolution of the disputes to pressurise/ persuade China to discuss the issue openly in the multinational forum openly and in a transparent manner. Hopefully the new leadership of China which is keen on the growth of trade would see the need for dealing with the issue in the multilateral forum.
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