19 November 2012, 10:56 AM IST
Lodhi Gardens was strangely different yesterday evening. Not subdued, for sure, the early winter is now being kind. But. The usual movers and shakers were prominent by their absence. Lady Willingdon would have been proud. The pathways and lawns were, truly, of and for the people.
The man selling tea, doing less business than usual, peering into his drum. Big people go up, our business goes down, he said laconically. The tea he served me was stronger than usual. The tea leaves inside still had plenty of strength.
Because. Most anybody who was or is or wants to be somebody, from in and around Delhi, was out attending a funeral, or watching it. Funerals which pertain to Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, but which will impact Delhi, a lot. Soon.
Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, two states that impact the economy and political process in India, have a major impact on what happens with day to day life in Delhi too. The prominent deaths in Mumbai and Delhi over the last few days, one of old age and the other due to inter-family disputes, are symbolic of what we can look forward to.
Putting matters into the proper perspective, the assets both official and otherwise of Politically Exposed Persons of Indian origin or connections, are now available almost off the shelf for fairly moderate prices. International "research" and "media" companies of repute provide these services for a fee, on a dynamic basis, regularly updated.
These are considered good enough for hard-nosed bankers and investors to take cogent decisions on.
So whether it was 50000 crores for somebody, or three times that for somebody else, in top-notch international banks or shady tax-haven breifcase outlets, fact remains, with the change in guard and voids created therein, much turbulence is expected. And unless good succession plans have been put into position as well as implemented before said change of guard, the complete effort after death in what really happens - can't take it with you, that's for sure - in building up such heavy and large numbers, devolves along broadly the following two lines:-
# The existing assets move into a status best defined as grab what can be grabbed and make tracks, wherein all sorts of intermediaries and trusted associates will simply sit tight over what they control. Often, nobody else knew but them, so.
# Future business activities will find new challengers and structures will change, new back-end powers will emerge, with successors from the original line or dynasty lucky enough to be given nominal front-end posts.
Both Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are not strangers to what is being anticipated, turbulence, churn, and huge evolutions of power structures. The outer manifestation will probably be known as "gang warfare". Supply chains of funds emerged out of liquor, real estate, movies, transportation, sugar, milk and what can only be called "the rest of it", including traditional commodities of the sort that brought India fame in its colonial era too, will falter and then resume with new players.
And succession plans? Perish the thought. Went out with any of the many mythological epics we have. Siblings have always been at war with each other. So what else is new?
These are not strange days. Observations are evolving, though. The funeral in Mumbai saw a huge presence of by and large "ordinary" people, content to walk in reasonable discipline and grief, and a very strong attempt to portray control as well as mass support. The funeral in Delhi by contrast was a collection of huge automobiles and even more private security guards, family members and religious formations present along with people of shall we say a richer social sector, and very little of what is called "the common man" present.
Common in both cases, however, is the frantic back-room work going on.
Uttar Pradesh and Mumbai. Matters in Delhi will certainly be impacted. The numbers are huge. The divisions are visible. And that's the bottomline.
The tea-leaves spell out trouble. And the battle-field may well spill over to Delhi.
The only thing certain is that out of this will emerge a new victor.
Ladies & Gentlemen, choose your sides. And weapons.
+++
And meanwhile, if the biggest fear is from your own security personnel, then what will you do next? You don't want to kick the baaltee so soon,just because your guards were trigger happy, do you?
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