28 December 2012, 02:22 PM IST
With the 16th Lok Sabha election likely to be held in late-2013 or early-2014, four key factors will affect its outcome:
First, intractable inflation and sluggish economic growth despite a slew of new reforms.
Second, growing public anger against UPA-2's misgovernance.
Third, the BJP's continuing support to its president, Nitin Gadkari, despite charges of impropriety against him.
Fourth, the impact of the UPA government's Direct Cash Transfer (DCT) scheme.
Two of these factors are strong anti-incumbent catalysts. The positives for the government? A divided, often inept opposition.
The table below projects the number of seats the Congress and the BJP are likely to get if the general election was held now. Listed under the table are the seats UPA allies, NDA allies and others are projected to win.
The total number of Lok Sabha seats is 545, including two nominated MPs who have been placed in the "others" column. While the projections shown are based on an analysis of publicly available poll data, taking both qualitative and quanitative factors into account, they are subjective and indicative.
Coalition alignments will play a key role in the outcome of the 16th Lok Sabha poll. For the purpose of this analysis, I've assumed that neither the Congress nor the BJP will declare its Prime Ministerial candidate before the general election. UPA and NDA coalition allies are therefore taken as those prevailing today though the analysis examines several alternative options.
2014 Lok Sabha: Projections
| State
| Total Seats | Lok Sabha Projection | |
|
|
| Cong | BJP |
| Andhra Pradesh | 42 | 4 | 0 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Assam | 14 | 4 | 5 |
| Bihar | 40 | 2 | 15 |
| Chhattisgarh | 11 | 1 | 10 |
| Delhi | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| Goa | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Gujarat | 26 | 9 | 17 |
| Haryana | 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Jharkhand | 14 | 2 | 10 |
| Karnataka | 28 | 12 | 9 |
| Kerala | 20 | 10 | 0 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 29 | 9 | 16 |
| Maharashtra | 48 | 12 | 12 |
| Manipur | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Meghalaya | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Mizoram | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nagaland | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Odisha | 21 | 2 | 0 |
| Punjab | 13 | 2 | 4 |
| Rajasthan | 25 | 8 | 15 |
| Sikkim | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tamil Nadu | 39 | 0 | 0 |
| Tripura | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Uttarakhand | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 80 | 12 | 15 |
| West Bengal | 42 | 5 | 0 |
| Andaman & Nicobar | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Chandigarh | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dadra and Nagar Haveli | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Daman & Diu | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Lakshadweep | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Puducherry | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nominated members | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 545 | 113 | 149 |
In states where Congress+BJP projected seats
don't add up to total seats, UPA/NDA allies or
unattached regional parties make up the projected
balance as follows:
UPA allies projected seat tally:
DMK 8, NCP 8, NC 2, Others 12. Total 30.
NDA allies projected seat tally:
SS 16, SAD 7, JD(U) 20, AGP 2, Others 2. Total 47.
Others projected seat tally: AIADMK 28, BJD 18,
TMC 25, TDP 5, TRS 13, YSR 19, JD(S) 4, BSP 28,
SP 25, Left Front 21, Others 20. Total 206.
_____________________________________
The news isn't good for either the Congress or the BJP. The Congress is projected to get 113 seats, the BJP 149.
UPA allies (NCP, DMK, NC and others) get 30. The UPA total – a dismal 143. NDA allies (SS, SAD, JDU, AGP and others) get 47. The NDA total – 196.
Neither alliance will be in a position to form a stable government. What about the regionals? Between them, the SP, TMC, BSP, AIADMK, BJD, TDP, YSR, TRS, Left, JD(S), and others get 206 seats. Again, well short of a workable majority. And if you remove the UP, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh rivals (SP/BSP, TMC/Left and YSR/TDP) from the equation, the regional front sinks into near-oblivion.
The BJP's internal politics and ally-sensitivity could prevent it from nominating Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate. This will cut its seat total significantly – unless Modi leads the national campaign and his Prime Ministerial candidature is kept deliberately ambiguous.
But does Modi travel well? Analysts say the two rallies he addressed in Himachal this November failed to sway voters. Modi's pan-India appeal is an open question and the only way to get an answer is to put it to test by making Modi one of the BJP's principal campaigners in the eight state assembly elections due in 2013.
Modi as PM-candidate will polarize the majority vote for the BJP, leading to more seats but fewer allies as we see in Scenario 3 below. The RSS will meanwhile have to decide whether it wants to run the BJP in opposition or allow the BJP to run India in government. That means loosening control and convincing L.K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley to step aside to give Modi a larger national leadership role.
What about the Congress? If public sentiment sours further, Rahul may be held back as the party's Prime Ministerial candidate for fear of defeat damaging him permanently. Sonia reckons 2014's inevitable hung parliament will lead to a mid-term poll in 2016. Voters, having tasted instability, will rush back into the Congress's familiar and warm embrace. That's when Rahul will make his PM pitch and Priyanka play an increasing role in the party along with Sonia who will turn 70 in December 2016.
* * *
The bottomline: the BJP will get more seats than the Congress (149-113) but fewer allies. Final coalition score: NDA: 196. UPA: 143. Others: 206.
In the end, 2014 could boil down to an ideological battle between Sonia and Modi. Dynasty vs. Development. Dressed-up Secularism vs. Hindutva. Soft on Pakistan vs. Tough on Pakistan. Handouts to the Poor vs. Self-Reliance for the Poor. Dependencies vs. Competencies.
Whoever's vision – Sonia's or Modi's – resonates with voters could end up forming, or supporting, the next government.
We are thus left with three likely scenarios for 2014:
Scenario 1: The UPA with 143 seats supports from outside around 150 regional MPs out of the 206 "others" (minus UP/WB/AP state rivals) as it did in 1996. A regional PM (Mulayam? Mayawati?) or even one from within the UPA (Pawar?) is propped up for two years till Rahul is ready in 2016. At this stage the regional front government will be unceremoniously pulled down. (The Congress supported, then cut down, Chandra Shekhar in 1991, Deve Gowda in 1997 and I.K. Gujral in 1998. It got Vajpayee's NDA for six years in return for the perfidy.)
Scenario 2: The NDA with 196 seats wins over 84 of the 206 "others" as coalition allies: AIADMK (28), BJD (18), TMC (25) and TRS (13). This formation of 280 would nominate a non-Modi Prime Minister post-election (Jaitley, Sushma or Advani) to guarantee support from "secularists" like Nitish, Naveen and Mamata. Modi could be given Home or even the Deputy Prime Ministership. He would have to prove himself nationally as a campaigner and also in government – and bide his time. He could then make 2016 his own battle against a post-Sonia, Rahul-led, Congress, targeting 180-200 sets for the BJP alone on a national development plank. Nitish and others would be bade farewell.
Scenario 3: The BJP, overcoming internal resistance, nominates Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate. How would this change the electoral math? These are the states where Modi-as-Prime Minister could bring the BJP additional seats in 2014 if he fires up voters the way he does cadres:
- 8 more in Uttar Pradesh, up from the projected 15 in our table to 23.
- 4 more in Bihar, up from 15 to 19 (despite the inevitable break with the JDU).
- 4 more in Maharashtra, up from 12 to 16.
- 4 more in home state Gujarat, up from 17 to 21.
- 2 more in Delhi, up from 4 to 6, 2 more in Rajasthan, up from 15 to 17, and 2 more in Karnataka, up from 9 to 11.
- 6 more in smaller states.
Total: 32 additional seats – taking a Modi-led BJP on its own to 181. The NDA would lose JDU's 20 seats but retain Shiv Sena (16), SAD (7), AIADMK (28), AGP (2), TRS (13), with the stated promise of Telengana, and possibly BJD (18), taking a Modi-led NDA to 265.
Even without the three "secular" Ms (Mulayam, Maya and Mamata), only a handful of independents and smaller parties (8 seats in all) would then be needed for NDA-3 to secure a 273-seat majority in the Lok Sabha.
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