17 January 2013, 06:03 PM IST
It took the Indian Prime Minister nine days to respond to the beheading of an Indian Soldier by the Pakistan Army giving a clear indication as to how concerned is he about the Indian Army or its soldiers who are guarding our borders under trying conditions. The Government still seems to be grappling with the situation not knowing how to respond to the situation. Suggestions are abound from various quarters advocating that this so called isolated incident should not be allowed to derail the composite dialogue process. No doubt we need to have peace with our neighbor. Can that be a one way effort with Pakistan not even showing an iota of sincerity in responding to India in its efforts to bring about peace in the region?
The Current Scenario in Pakistan
Are the recent ceasefire violations, the killings and beheading of the Indian soldiers an isolated incident? The happenings in Pakistan in the recent past do not suggest so. It appears to be a part of a larger design to create anarchical situation in Pakistan to bring down the present elected government. Trouble being created in our borders may be the external angle to the situation so being engineered.
The Supreme Court of Pakistan has ordered the arrest of the current Pakistan Prime Minister on corruption charges. At Quetta, in protest against the killing of Shia Muslims in a twin bombing incident in an area dominated by Hazara ethnic minority by pro Sunni militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, families refused to bury their dead. A total of 92 people were killed and 121 seriously wounded. Obliging the protesters, the Pakistan Government has dissolved the provincial government in Baluchistan and has imposed Governor's rule.
The TMQ leader Tahir – ul - Qadri who has managed to draw huge crowds has demanded the dissolution of all constitutional assemblies and the formation of an impartial interim government before the general elections creating a political and a law and order problem in the country. It is believed that he is acting at the behest of the Army and with the tacit support of the Pakistan Supreme Court. The timing of the Supreme Court's directions to order the arrest of the Pakistani Prime Minister is also being linked to extending the current unrest to fast track the creation of a situation of convenience to the Army.
Pakistan's Army chief is due to retire in November this year. The present PPP government as well as PML - N Chief Nawaz Sharif who may be a contender for forming the Government after the elections, it is believed, may not be favorably disposed to the military. The current happenings in Pakistan may be an effort by the Pakistan's Army Chief to weaken and discredit the present government and the political system to come to power or to instill a government of his choice and convenience.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 and the dependence of the US forces on the Pakistan army to effect a smooth withdrawal may have further emboldened the Pakistan Army Chief to embark on this route. Pakistan's economy too is in shatters and so is the present law and order situation in the country which provides further pretext for the dissolution of the elected Government.
Pakistan's Intentions
The ceasefire which had come into effect in 2003 after an express assurance by Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf that Pakistan's soil would not be allowed to be used for fomenting terrorism in India has been breached with impunity since 2010. This ceasefire was to help out Pakistan thin out from the LOC to the extent of finding troops for its operations against militants who were spreading terror within the country. India's efforts to resume dialogue and effect other confidence building measures despite the Parliament attack, 26 / 11 and non-cooperation to bring the perpetrators of 26 / 11 to book has not been reciprocated in any visible manner.
The number of ceasefire violations has been in hundreds and is on the increase every day. Time and again these violations have been used to infiltrate militants from across. Forty three terrorist camps are still intact in POK and in Pakistan. If Pakistan is serious about establishing an enduring peace with India, why have they not dismantled them yet? Are these symbols of Pakistan's peaceful intentions? Terror groups in Kashmir are still being funded and armed. The killings of Panches and Sarpanchs in the valley are being orchestrated from across the border in an effort to derail democracy taking roots in the Valley. Now Pakistan Army has had the audacity to come across and not only kill two Indian soldiers but mutilate their bodies and behead one of them. Mines manufactured in Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) have been laid in the Indian side of the LC with the sole aim of causing casualty to our troops.
Is there any doubt about the intentions of Pakistan even after all these hard facts? Hope our doves in the establishment and those in the intellectual community who were advocating the handing over of Siachen and Sir Creek realize the perils of such a deed.
What do the people want?
The people of India want peace with its neighbor. The people however cannot accept the Government bending backwards when its neighbor has shown scant regard for anything peaceful. Pakistan all through has been making all-out efforts to provoke us continuously despite the assurances given by its leaders.
People cannot accept its soldiers being meted out the variety of barbaric treatment that the country witnessed recently. The Government is bound by a solemn two way unwritten honor code to fulfill its part of the obligation to safeguard the military's interests by all means available within its power. The Government's obligations include providing a level playing field to its military vis a' vis its neighbor thus enabling it to discharge its obligations with respect and dignity. To that end if sacrifices have to be made the people will not hesitate to do so. The Government also needs to realize that the country's self-respect, dignity, honor and integrity cannot be surrendered under any circumstances even if it amounts to going to war.
As far as the people of this country are concerned, composite dialogues, Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status, confidence building measures, liberalized visa regime, people to people contact, cricket diplomacy, cultural exchanges etc. are not the priorities. Is India dependent on Pakistan for its trade or for the well-being of its economy? People need peace in its borders besides an end to terrorism in the Valley and elsewhere in the country. But that cannot be at the cost of the world viewing India as soft state. If Pakistan fails to understand these sentiments of the people where is the middle ground or the rationale for the so called balanced approach?
India's approach and response
Under these circumstances, our approach to Pakistan ought to be firm and take into account the peoples' mood.
Firstly, it is undisputable that we need to maintain friendly relationship with our neighbor but that not at the cost of being seen as spineless. Presently it may be prudent to maintain just a skeleton diplomatic presence in Pakistan. The pace and intensity of our diplomatic efforts need to await the outcome of the present turmoil in Pakistan. All contacts and dialogue may be suspended till an appropriate time. Visa to Pakistan nationals need to be granted only on case to case basis and when inescapable. The world community need to be made aware of Pakistan's duplicity in a proactive way if need be by sending our diplomats to selected countries including China. India needs to support free and fair elections and effective reforms in our neighborhood.
Secondly, the Indian soldier cannot be let down for some perceived advantages especially under pressure from a rogue army. By all accounts it appears that the present tensions created in our borders are the handiwork of the military. The elected Government of Pakistan may or may not be in control of the situation. Pakistan military therefore needs to be dealt with independently and made to realize the costs of such adventurism in a manner that it exposes and hurts its standing in their people's opinion. Given the task, the military is quite capable of delivering.
Thirdly, it is in India's interest to have an economically viable and a peaceful democracy across. For the present suitable economic measures need to be initiated so as to convey to the people of Pakistan that it's military is hurting vital national interests. We may consider suspending all trade concessions and bilateral trade with Pakistan besides competing in areas of Pakistan's exports if need be by providing tax reliefs.
Fourthly, those involved in instigating violence in the Valley and derailing democratic processes taking roots need to be made to feel the heat. The sources of income and assets of the so called leaders and leaders of militant organisation must be investigated and measures instituted to stop money flow into the Valley. Fast track courts need to be constituted to punish those instigating, abetting or causing violence. The J & K police needs to be revamped. The security grid in the Valley must be reoriented to protect the grass root level democratic institutions.
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