14 February 2013, 06:53 PM IST
The corruption allegations in the AgustaWestland helicopter deal and the leaked 17-minute tape alleging collusion between 2G accused Sanjay Chandra of Unitech and the CBI prosecutor, since removed, have brought corruption back to centrestage as an election issue.
How will this impact the Congress and the BJP in the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha poll? In particular, will it play to the advantage of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's own record of governance?
Following the lunch meeting with European Union (EU) ambassadors in Delhi on January 7, oddly enough revealed only last week, the conventional wisdom is that Modi's momentum is now unstoppable.
The British came calling in October. The Americans will probably do so in the next three months. The Chinese and Japanese are already on board. The EU ambassadors are the latest foreigners to fall in line. An invitation to Modi to attend the European parliament in Brussels in November, just before campaigning for 2014 begins in earnest, could not, from his point of view, be better timed.
The RSS has for all practical purposes endorsed Modi as the front-runner for the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidature. The BJP's Delhi leadership is coming around – slowly. Party President Rajnath Singh has made up with Modi.
Even the JD(U) seems to be softening. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has realised that he's been painted into a corner. If he walks out of the NDA following Modi's elevation as the alliance's Prime Ministerial candidate, he will suffer twin blows.
One, in a quadrangular battle in Bihar in the 2014 Lok Sabha election with the BJP, Congress and Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD, the JD(U) could lose half its 20 parliamentary seats, rendering itself irrelevant nationally and perfectly useless to any regional front that might want to make a bid for power in a hung parliament.
Two, the JD(U) will almost certainly do badly in the 2015 Bihar state assembly elections without the BJP as an ally. Anti-incumbency, fading popularity as a doer and vote-splitting could bring an end to Nitish's Chief Ministership.
The Nitish-approval-for-Modi factor is therefore clearly overplayed. Lingering intra-BJP opposition to Modi is also likely to fade in the coming months as the Lok Sabha poll approaches. Modi's ability to draw official corporate funds for the party's Lok Sabha campaign will further enhance his role.
* * *
And yet, Modi has two large obstacles to surmount before he can lead the NDA to victory in 2014.
The first is to build a successful relationship with Rajnath Singh and other central BJP leaders. The BJP President, a former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, has a good equation with Mayawati, a potential future NDA partner. He has the trust of the RSS. While Rajnath pursues semi-hard Hindutva, appealing to the Hindi heartland where the BJP badly needs Lok Sabha seats, Modi will deal in vision, governance, development and aspiration. Deity and development could be the catchwords of the Rajnath-Modi strategic partnership.
Modi needs the RSS cadre (whom he did without in the Gujarat election) to fight a successful Lok Sabha election. He also needs Sushma Swaraj – his most serious competitor for nomination as Prime Ministerial candidate in the BJP – to accept his primacy. And he needs Rajnath to succeed in enlarging the NDA family with special focus on Mayawati, Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee and one of the three Andhra parties: YSR Congress, TRS or TDP.
Modi's second hurdle is the national electorate. In the last four general elections (1998, 1999, 2004 and 2009), the BJP's national voteshare has averaged 22.58% and its Lok Sabha seats 154. (The Congress has averaged 27.30% voteshare and 152 seats during the same period.)
The BJP must increase its voteshare to 26% to have a realistic chance of leading the next government. In 1999, with plenty of allies, the BJP won 182 seats with just 23.75% national voteshare. With fewer allies, 26% would deliver between 185 and 195 seats in 2014.
Assume a Modi-led BJP, helped by the deity-and-development strategy of Rajnath-Modi, gets 185 seats with 26% voteshare (a swing of 3.5% over its average voteshare between 1998 and 2009). It therefore needs around 100 seats for a comfortable parliamentary majority of 285 in 2014.
This is the path to the 100:
| 1. | Shiv Sena | 16 |
| 2. | SAD | 7 |
| 3. | AGP | 3 |
| 4. | HJC | 4 |
| 5. | AIADMK | 28* |
| 6. | BJD | 18* |
| 7. | Small parties/independents | 24 |
| Total | 100 |
* Not core allies.
With a promise of 285 MPs, the AIADMK and BJD will be persuaded to join the NDA government. Mayawati is a dark horse but is malleable. With 20 or more seats, the BSP, with Rajnath's persuasive skills, could return to the NDA and take its tally to over 300.
We've left out Mamata's TMC, the TRS and YSR Congress in the 285 count. One of them, if not two, are likely allies once 285 is reached and an NDA government – even without them – is certain. Power attracts. Absolute power attracts absolutely everyone.
Those regional parties left out in the cold – principally Mulayam's SP, Karunanidhi's DMK, Pawar's NCP, Abdullah's NC and Karat's Left – will between them garner less than 65 Lok Sabha seats.
The need for protection from corruption cases currently in various courts is what drives many of these parties (bar the Left) to cling to power since the fruits of office are now depleting under the CAG's watchful eyes. Hence, too, the government's growing angst with Vinod Rai.
* * *
What about the Rahul factor? How will it impact 2014? Whose idea of India will prevail – Rahul's or Modi's? Is a Modi vs. Rahul battle a simplistic, unidimensional way of looking at 2014? That and more in part III of this continuing series, Countdown to 2014.
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