Where's the black swan?

Pritish Nandy
11 February 2013, 10:24 AM IST

Like much of India, the media is also certain that 2014 will be a battle between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, and currently Modi appears to have a distinct edge. The battle is often stupidly oversimplified into a confrontation between two adversaries, one who stands for our Hindu identity, a strong, muscular government that gives no quarter to corruption, refuses to appease the minorities, and actually delivers on promises of development and the other, who has failed to make his mark in recent elections, does not stand for anything specific, is soft on most issues, pampers a different set of vote banks, and allows his cronies to steal from the public exchequer.

The fact that Modi has just won his third straight term in Gujarat is seen as a clear sign that India wants him. Just as the fact that Rahul has made little impact on the recent elections fought in different states is touted as proof that India, particularly young India, has already rejected him and roots for Modi. Curiously, for many, the Congress is seen as a millstone around Rahul's neck just as many Modi sympathisers see the BJP as his liability. Both are projected as independent leaders in their own right. Like successful brands whose owners prefer to stay anonymous, as part of strategy.

When Modi was adroitly pitching himself for the nation's top role, the BJP was seen as a bunch of squabbling leaders with a businessman for party president whose own hands did not look all that clean. Interestingly, as Rahul was being pitched for the top job, and he seemed as reluctant as Modi initially was to take on a larger national responsibility, the Congress was seen as a bunch of effete, bungling, corrupt leaders, each competing to outdo the others in the scam sweepstakes. So Modi emerged much bigger than the BJP. And Rahul was projected as the man who could redeem the Congress. Now the contest between the two has abjured all pretence of being a battle of contesting parties or ideologies, or alternative developmental models for a nation that aspires to be a super power. It has, instead, become a battle between two individuals and, hence, the level of personal acrimony can only increase as we get closer to 2014. The levels of deification are also likely to reach absurd levels as we go along.

Journalists, channels, newspapers are all seen as having already taken a side in this battle. Every article is being judged as hostile or friendly. You cannot even make a comment on social media without it being instantly judged. Both sides are so sensitive at present that their supporters and bots (one never knows who are more) often read motives where none exist. Almost everything that appears everywhere seems to suggest that the battle lines have been drawn even though neither Modi nor Rahul are the official candidates of their respective parties for the nation's top job. It's all by innuendo and even the silent majority that usually plays its cards close to the chest, I suspect has also made its choice. For now.

So what does this say for our democracy, for political ideology, for change? No, not promises of change but real, tangible change that you and I want so desperately and so does every fresh faced youngster who, we are told, will form the decisive factor in the coming elections. Does it mean that parties and ideologies no longer count and we are back where we were just before the Emergency, when Indira Gandhi single handedly ruled India and destroyed every institution we had? We saw where that led us. And that is precisely my concern. I am as angry as the next man with what the Congress is doing but I am as wary as the next man as to where the BJP may lead us. I am also old fashioned enough to still believe that ideology is important, change needs a clearly articulated blueprint. Not just the promise of one person.

This does not mean no Modi or no Gandhi. It means: Let's stop this stupid hero worship and get down to figuring out what we need to take India ahead and which party can deliver it. Then that party is welcome to choose its own leader, in a manner that best demonstrates its democratic credentials. Then Gandhi or Modi, Modi or Gandhi I don't give a damn. Frankly, I could even do with a black swan.