11 March 2013, 02:34 PM IST
In his address to the Indian community in the United States, Narendra Modi provided a glimpse of what he can be trusted to do should he become the helmsman of the next government at the Centre: he would seek to replicate in the country as a whole his model of governance in Gujarat. The key ingredients of the model are a clean and efficient administration, speedy economic growth, a tough stand on terrorism and pride in Gujarati identity. If such a potpourri could work miracles in his state, Modi argued in substance, there is no reason why it can't do likewise across the land. To give India's well-being priority attention, including, especially, development, through selfless service would achieve two worthy aims: one, 'people will forgive our mistakes' and two, 'secularism will automatically run in our blood.'
That Modi's address would go down well with his US-based audience was a foregone conclusion. Over the decades, various Hindu outfits have nurtured the Indian diaspora's long-distance nationalism. It tends to be edgier and more virulent than the one they nurture at home. A mix of high decibel nationalist mantras with a vivid references Hindu folklore and mythology is music to its ears. Minorities of course found no mention in the Gujarat chief minister's speech. But considering his past utterances, which seldom failed to take a dig at them, and indeed sometimes even demonised them, this was no small mercy. All the same, Modi's hint that his government's conduct in the 2002 communal riots was a mere 'mistake' is bound to raise eye-brows.
So will Modi's attempt to regard his 'India first' mantra, with its marked emphasis on economic growth, as a substitute for secularism. It echoes the ideological tenets of Hindu outfits first enunciated in the 1920s and later elaborated by a number of sangh parivar organizations. These include giving a place of pride to the nation-state and to a culture rooted in the religion of the majority of the population. All this might entail collateral damage: neglect of minority interests, guaranteed in the Constitution, and non-inclusive growth, reflected in poor ratings on the human development index. But clearly, in Modi's scheme of things, the time has come to go beyond the 'mistakes', to not insist on just retribution for them, to move on from a vibrant Gujarat to a vibrant India. His NRI listeners doubtless nodded their fulsome assent. But will voters at home be prepared to follow suit?
This depends, first of all, on whether the BJP will coronate him as the party's candidate for the prime minister's post. Its rank-and-file has no doubts on this score. Several influential leaders have thrown their weight behind him. Even those who are no longer active in the party – such as Arun Shourie – have gone on record that Modi's candidature has been settled in all but the name. Some leaders, including LK Advani, still appear to have some reservation about it. Revealing in this regard is his latest comment that seems to say that the people are equally wary of the Congress and the BJP. But will this stem the tide in the Gujarat chief minister's favour? That is decidedly a tall order.
Modi has a tougher time getting NDA allies to back him. But even here he has reasons to be optimistic. The Thackeray cousins, for instance, could eventually fall in line. Unlike his late father, Udhav Thackeray, leader of the Shiv Sena, no longer bats for Sushma Swaraj. And Raj Thackeray, leader of the MNS, fancies himself as the Modi of Maharashtra. Ms. J. Jayalithaa enjoys a fine equation with him. So do the Badals in Punjab.
Leaders of other present and prospective allied parties – Naveen Patnaik in Odisha, Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Nitish Kumar in Bihar – are playing their cards close to their chest. The main reason of course is that they have to be attentive to the concerns of the minorities in their respective states whose votes are critical for electoral success. But if the BJP fares well in the forthcoming elections in several states, the fence-sitters may fall in line.
What Modi is really counting on to promote his ambitions is the failure of the Congress to get its act together. Rahul Gandhi's recent acts of 'renunciation' – not to get married, not to be in the race for the prime minister's job - appears to have left his party in a state of confusion. Beyond the party, in public opinion at large, the 'renunciation' has had, at best, a lukewarm response. Corporate India, at any rate, appears to have made its preference known: it finds in Modi a messiah of vigorous economic growth. So what stands in the way for the Gujarat chief minister to realise his ambitions? Not Modi-bashers but his own hype and hoopla. They could prove to be his nemesis.
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