26 March 2013, 03:57 PM IST
There is a lot of speculation about the stability of the central government. Elections, it is being suggested, might be held in September-October this year, rather than in May 2014 as scheduled. This instability, speculators infer logically, could affect the government's ability to deliver on governance and reform. This dash of logic, a good portion of Mulayam Singh Yadav, a liberal dose of Tamil disaffection and CBI raid stories to taste make for a political brew that is hot and spicy. If it makes you sweat, relax. Elections will take place as scheduled, the central government will complete its term and try its level best to push economic growth. What businessmen need to worry about is their own business, not the shenanigans on Raisina Hill.
The reason is not the United Progressive Alliance is the darling of the political class and it would break the heart of any of the several outside supporters that keep this government going to see the government fall. Rather, the reason for the government's stability is that no one is keen to precipitate early elections. If the Samajwadi Party thinks it is in its interest to pull the government down, then it is only natural that his rival in the state, the BSP should want to keep the government going. The Trinamool Congress is seeing its fortunes ebb in West Bengal. It wants the tide to turn before seeing a major electoral battle. The Left, on its part, wants the slide to continue for some more time. Both are more than happy to let the government at the Centre be for the time being.
The BJP does not show any sign of moving a vote of no confidence against the government. In fact, party president Rajnath Singh has told the US envoy that early polls are unlikely. Its alliance with the JD(U) is rocky, there is a fierce tussle internally over leadership and its first government in the south of the country is all about to go down the tube.
Would the Congress gain, in this situation where no major force in the Opposition wants an election, if it were to go for a snap poll? Not really. It knows that the economy has to be given a chance to recoup, recover from nearly three years of mismanagement. Inflation has to come down, the pace of economic growth has to accelerate, if more people are to get jobs. The Congress would like to use every second of the time it has before it faces the voters again.
Since it is in no party's interest to have early elections, the government at the Centre will be stable. In the interest of the ruling coalition, it will put up far better governance than it has in the past. Politics is conducive to doing business. Business has to turn businesslike, too, instead of wringing its hands now over the euro and then over local politics.
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