22 March 2013, 01:14 AM IST
Guess when Mrs Gursharan Kaur, the graceful sari-clad wife of our Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, emitting a characteristically Indian élan, meets the charming and highly popular singer, Mrs Peng Liyuan, wife of the newly elected President of China, Mr Xi Jinping, what musical chemistry may happen. Daily Telegraph of London reported on the new charm offensive Durban might witness: "Mrs Peng is one of China's most prominent singers, topping the bill on the country's gala military concert at Chinese New Year, for decades. But her emergence as a prominent consort for the country's top leader would break the mould in China." So good luck, Mrs Kaur; we hope India and China both will gain with the charm offensive of the two ancient civilizations working for the good of all BRICS nations.
This charming meet may not be a standardized high brow diplomatic parley to be held at Durban on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, but it certainly symbolizes the deep urge in both the people and their governments to forge a bond that accommodates the Chinese dream and the grand Indian vision.
On 26th and 27th of this month, when the Indian society would be in a colourful mood of the Holi festival, a multicultural diplomatic flow of BRICS would be in its full swing at Durban. Dr Manmohan Singh's two important meetings with the Russian and Chinese Presidents would steal headlines for the sheer weight they carry. This will be Manmohan Singh's first meeting with the new Chinese President Xi Jinping, and it is already a matter of discussion in both the capitals. The India focused statement of President Xi has given rise to hopes that a new level of our ties can be seen in near future.
Though neither Singh nor Xi have any illusions of a miracle or finding quick solutions, they will not shy to discuss the boundary issue and also the matter of correcting trade imbalance that heavily favours China.
In a significant reflection on relations with India, the first after his inauguration, President Xi spoke about the five point formula, reminiscent of the old Nehruvian Panchsheel (five characteristics) thus-(India-China must take relations to new heights: Xi Jinping)-"59-year-old Xi, who took over as the head of Communist Party, President and Military Chief, completing a rare triad of power, sent clear signals of boosting bilateral relations with India and expressed his keenness to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh next week on the sidelines of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in his first contact with top Indian leadership after his inauguration."
He said China sees its ties with India as "one of the most important bilateral relationships".
1. "Pending the final settlement of the boundary question the two sides should work together and maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas and prevent the border question from affecting the overall development of bilateral relations," Xi said in an interview. Xi said that first China and India should maintain strategic communication and keep the bilateral relations on the "right track".
2. "Second, we should harness each other's comparative strengths and expand win-win cooperation in infrastructure, mutual investment and other areas".
3. India and China should strengthen cultural ties and constantly increase the mutually expanding friendship between the two countries.
4. The two countries should expand coordination and collaboration in multi-lateral fora to jointly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries and tackle global challenges.
5. "We should accommodate each other's core concerns and properly handle problems and differences existing between the two countries".
Xi spoke of the traditional friendship between India and China, describing them as two largest developing countries of the world with a combined population of over 2.5 billion.
The significance of this statement, on the eve of BRICS summit must not be underestimated.
BRICS, if followed with the same passion and collectivity as we see today, can prove to be an Eastern magic for the emerging economies. This time its an out reach summit for South Africa hence named as BRICS-SA summit which aims to help SA economy, trade and via that the global governance regime.
Besides, the think tank organization is a significant factor providing the intellectual engine to the movement and the much discussed development bank is going to be a real milestone. The basics of the beginning may demand a cohesive attention to decide about its structure, loan pattern and how BRICS countries provide stability to it. Senior journalist MK Venu has suggested using the strength of symbolism and letting the central banks of BRICS economies subscribe to safe, risk-free bonds issued by the other BRICS governments. For example Reserve Bank of India, which keeps 60% of its reserves in US treasury bills can easily keep about 0.5 % of its reserves in the bonds issued by China, Brazil, Russia and SA. Similarly others can keep their 0.5% reserves in the bonds issued by India.
The other important issue before the BRICS countries is to increase the intra state trade. According to an analysis 'indications show that countries in the group are giving increased focus to intra-group trade. This is reflected specifically by trade data for Brazil and South Africa. Intra-group trade for these two countries is around 20% of total trade. In the other BRICS countries, intra-group co-operation in trade is also improving.'
The emerging economies have long been facing the brunt of the subtle apartheid policies Bretton Woods's institutions have been practicing in their dealings with the developing world. None in this part of the world will believe that the way IMF increased its fund corpus substantially from $ 500 billion to about $ 900 billion in order to help Europe come out of its crisis, the same gesture would ever be available to them in their hour of need.
BRICS is the most powerful symbol of the emerging economies coming out of the shadow of the western monopolies and hegemonies. The strength of the reserves of BRICS countries gives a powerful signal to the western economies with China having $ 3.2 trillion, India $ 300 billion, Brazil $ 540 billion, Russia $540 billion and SA $ 50 billion. Thus BRICS has become the largest economies lobby-group with a common interest aiming to reform global governance and financial institutions. Some of the basic facts about the BRICS are:
* BRICS accounts for 26 per cent of the world's landmass and 42 per cent of the global population, including India and China, two of the world's most populous countries.
* BRICS accounts for 40 percent of global GDP ($18.486 trillion) and its proportion is rapidly increasing. Goldman Sachs predicts that "BRIC can become collectively bigger than the G-7 (the top industrial powers) by 2035". BRICS countries have accounted for over 50 per cent global economic growth in the last decade.
* Intra-BRICS trade is growing at an average of 28 percent annually and currently stands at about $230 billion.
But what about the security aspect? The issue of security and combating terrorism is also on top of the BRICS agenda. And it's this aspect of providing a pathway of peace and mutual understanding that the world is looking with awe and hope towards BRICS confabulations. India has been the biggest victim of terrorism on the earth and the Russian and the Chinese responses to terror can certainly help us. The best part of the India, Russia, China story is that the Russian strong man Putin is a highly adored and admired icon of friendship for us who can show his steel at any crisis time. (see my piece 'India needs a Putin' )
The chemistry between Russia and China has become another icon of the 'sun rise' side of the neo world order that refuses to accept the uni-polarity and voices the aspirations of emerging economies. Its no wonder that Putin chose China as his first destination to visit abroad after he was declared the presidential candidate last November and Beijing accorded him the same level of welcome befitting a head of the state. Similarly Xi Jinping is going to Moscow before he lands at Durban as his first visit abroad after becoming the President of China. The symbolism of such gesture cant be missed by the world.
It's a positive sign for India that Delhi is not just a closest ally of Moscow and has been going steady with Putin as the most trusted friend but has been making right moves with the Chinese. Without getting noisy the India-Russia China conclaves have become a routine affair bringing new hopes of understanding and strategic partnership to the fore. Can Manmohan Singh match the fiery and youthful dynamism of Russia's Putin and China's Xi to forge the most formidable power centre on this earth that puts India in its rightful orbit? In spite of the pressures of the domestic politics and living on 'a hurricane a day' diet he has shown a remarkable resilience and an admirable farsightedness on the East Asia policy sector, that has become a hallmark of his external forays.
Durban will certainly be a test case for him no doubt. It can also turn a source of strength for India as Manmohan Singh's meetings with Putin and Xi are going to be the high mark of the BRICS summit and if his aides play it well, India will stand to gain positively. After all, the world leaders deal with the Indian leadership and not with the party leaders and as Manmohan Singh represents the Tricolour nation, his success would translate into gains for India.
But like every other story, this too has a flip side. Despite positive declarations, both Russia and China have not explicitly endorsed their support for the aspirations of their fellow BRICS to be permanent members of the UNSC. In the same vein as the other permanent members of the UNSC, China and Russia will not support any initiative that limits their veto power or extends that power to other countries. In the UNSC vote on Libya in 2011, the BRICS membership, with the exception of South Africa, all abstained from the vote on Resolution 1973 on the no-fly zone. On the issue of Iran and Syria, however, the assumption being that the BRICS learnt from its experience with Libya, the group stood firm on its non-interventionist stance, preferring that the situation be resolved without military intervention by the UN. However, on the resolution in support of the Arab League's plan for the removal of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, India, Brazil and South Africa voted in support of the resolution while Russia and China voted against the resolution. The UNHRC resolution on Sri Lanka and the vexed boundary issue are other such hurdles that have to be tackled deftly to move ahead on BRICS comprehensive agenda.
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