08 May 2013, 02:59 PM IST
Now it is certain that Congress will form the government in Karnataka. The party has secured a simple majority in the 223-seat state assembly. Political pundits are, however, quick to point out that Congress has not succeeded in cashing in on circumstances ripe for a massive victory. The verdict is that Congress has nothing to build on from the Karnataka election results. The party has failed to deliver the killer blow.
Is it so simple? Congress fought a very difficult election in the state. Of course, with a BJP chief minister going to jail on corruption charges, and the same influential leader breaking away from the party, splitting the Hindutva votes, it can be argued that Congress should have an intimidating majority in the assembly.
It is true, but only up to a point. B S Yeddyurappa's KJP split votes that BJP should have garnered naturally. Being a Lingayat leader, a section of votes that bolstered the BJP's MLA kitty in 2008, Yeddyurappa contesting elections and winning a significant number of seats has hurt the saffron party.
But unlike many other states, in this election Congress's main worry has been JD(S), the so-called farmers' party, led by a street-smart H D Kumaraswamy and ever-sleepy Deva Gowda. Once upon a time, Deva Gowda was India's prime minister. Now he is the only former prime minister active in Indian politics. You cannot ignore him, what with everyone now proclaiming the inability of both Congress (UPA) and BJP (NDA) to win power in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
So how do you counter a less-than-moribund, JD(S) which has a wily father-son leadership that conveniently claims an anti-Hindutva pro-rural stance, and enter electoral fray as a natural contender for anti-incumbency votes? That too at a time when at the Centre, the UPA government is battling corruption charges in Coalgate and now, 'jobs for sale' scam in Indian Railways. And the CBI chief Ranjit Sinha's admission to the Supreme Court that law minister Ashwani Kumar and the prime minister's office altered the Coalgate probe status report too came at the most inappropriate time for the Congress. This election was difficult for Congress and the results have proved it so.
JD(S), which should have been Congress's natural ally since BJP formed the government in Karnataka, has checked the Congress resurgence but not a credible victory in the state. BJP suffered humiliation but more than Congress, JD(S) has gained out of its comeuppance. Kumaraswamy's party has almost emerged as the principal opposition party, pushing BJP into a corner, and thereby reviving the Third Front theory, and keeping political fantasies alive.
May be this is the perfect result Congress could have had in Karnataka. The party has just that space on the floor of the assembly to form a government but prevent any ambitious misadventure within its ranks. The seat positions leave little chance for BJP and JD(S) to benefit from any bickering within the Congress and form an alternative government.
Now, the all-important question. Had Yeddyurappa not left the BJP bandwagon, could Congress have emerged winner in this election? The results indicate that Congress would have won, may be with a bigger margin of seats. By getting rid of Yeddyurappa, BJP was trying to minimize electoral damage on the corruption front. Keeping Yeddyurappa within its ranks and going to people would have been disastrous.
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