29 November 2013, 09:54 PM IST
In the words of a popular 60s-era ballad, there's something happening over there, what it is ain't exactly clear. "There" in this case is the Middle East or, as some prefer to call it, West Asia. Tectonic shifts, with profound implications for the future of international relations, may be occurring, with oil playing a significant role.
Some strange bedfellows may be drifting apart while other odd fellowships form. Starting with the oil price shocks of the 1970s, Saudi Arabia became an ally of the US, a general manager of the region, the key power in the global oil economy with its vast resources of black gold and a bulwark against Iran. The US Fifth Fleet patrolled the waters nearby to secure safe passage of oil and to protect the kingdom.
Today, with the US and Iran making deals perhaps to re-integrate Tehran in a not so distant future into the world community as a country friendly with the West, the Saudis increasingly fear being jilted. Its new friend in the region is now Israel!
The Saudis and the Israelis worked fruitlessly in tandem to prevent the White House from concluding an interim deal that would ease some international sanctions if Tehran adhered to a commitment to retreat from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Riyadh and Tel Aviv are now lobbying to persuade the US Congress not to support a deal that they fear would fundamentally alter the Middle East equation.
They are right in that assessment. But Israel just possibly may be overreacting.
Israel sees itself as the sole, if undeclared, nuclear weapons power in the region and it doesn`t want any rival on this front. It also sees Iran as an instigator of anti-Israel terrorism. Moderate Israelis, however, can see silver linings in the Iran-US deal. For one, it might actually reverse Tehran`s march towards the Bomb. For another, Iran`s desire to integrate into the global economy and power structure might give the US and other powers options to temper Tehran`s ambitions.
Saudi anxiety is deeper, more fundamental in a sense since it stems from a historical Shia-Sunni animosity and rivalry with Iran for dominance in the Gulf and over the Islamic world. Besides, with the world`s oil economy changing rapidly, the Saudis fear being pushed back into a secondary status in the international power architecture.
The Fifth Fleet is still in and around the Gulf and likely to remain there in the foreseeable future. But the gulf between the Americans and the Saudis is widening.
They have major differences over Iran. They have different views of how to manage Egypt. They don`t see eye to eye on Syria. And, importantly, oil has begun to lose its central position as a lever of power for Saudis over the world and especially over America, a reality that will be aggravated with the re-entry of millions of barrels of Iranian oil in the world market if sanctions against Iran continue to ease.
Oil and natural gas in the US is expected before long to surpass the output of the largest producer today, Russia. An ensuing fall in oil prices will not only affect the Saudis, it is likely to moderate Russia`s strategic attitude and ambition. Meanwhile, China`s thirst for oil grows almost insatiably. Little wonder then if Saudi Arabia and China eye each other keenly for growing mutual understanding and ties.
From the sidelines, New Delhi might like to keep a watchful eye on developments in West Asia. And there are other changes afoot. US ties with Pakistan are very tense and unlikely to ease soon. The planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan next year will not be a complete pullout; six to 10,000 Americans are expected to stay back to train Afghan forces to fight Taliban interference from across the eastern border while US drones continue to hover over Pakistan.
Pakistan's ties with Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, are strong. Though no one can acknowledge it officially, Saudi Arabia is an `off-the-shelf` nuclear weapons power. It assisted Pakistan financially to build the Bomb with an understanding it would get one if required. Thus, China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia share many interests.
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