13 December 2013, 03:22 PM IST
The state assembly results in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi carry a grim message for the Congress. But worse news could lie ahead. Consider the party's prospects for the 2014 general election.
The Congress faces a wipeout in 10 of India's largest states: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab and Tamil Nadu.
Its Lok Sabha tally in these 10 major states is currently 127 seats (AP 33, Bihar 2, Gujarat 11, MP 12, Odisha 6, Punjab 8, Rajasthan 20, Tamil Nadu 8, UP 21, and W. Bengal 6). In 2014, most estimates project the party's likely tally in these 10 states at between 30 and 35 seats with big losses in the Hindi heartland and Andhra.
The only large states where the Congress is likely to cross 10 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election are Maharashtra and Karnataka. Among the mid-sized states, Haryana and Assam present an opportunity to the Congress but the Hooda administration's misgovernance and the Gogoi government's handling of the 2012 riots may exact a price.
If Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) decides to contest the Lok Sabha poll in Haryana, the Congress could be in trouble. Victories in smaller states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and those in the north-east offer limited seat numbers in the Lok Sabha.
Kerala meanwhile faces serious anti-incumbency while Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh offer little electoral hope to the Congress.
Now consider the math:
Tier 1: In the 10 large states mentioned above, the Congress's tally is likely to be 30-35 seats.
Tier 2: Maharashtra and Karnataka could together contribute 20-25 seats.
Tier 3: In the mid-sized and small states, the Congress could drum up at most another 25-30 seats.
Taking the higher figure in each category, the Congress's 2014 Lok Sabha tally could hover around 90. At that level its strategy to attract allies like the TRS or YSR in Andhra, SP or BSP in Uttar Pradesh, RJD or JD(U) in Bihar and the Left or TMC in West Bengal may falter.
The numbers such a front could muster (without regional rival overlaps) are unlikely to be more than 90-100. A coalition of the Congress and a regional front with less than 200 Lok Sabha seats between them can hardly be the basis for a stable government.
The bad news for the Congress doesn't end there. The only two major allies left in UPA-2 – NCP and NC, which currently have 11 Lok Sabha seats between them – are also likely to bleed seats in 2014. Former ally DMK has begun to distance itself from the Congress with M.K. Stalin, Karunanidhi's heir, strongly opposed to any alliance with its estranged partner.
Moreover, several states go to the polls in assembly elections in 2014 and 2015 – among them Maharashtra, Bihar, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir.
If the Congress loses the Maharashtra and Haryana assemblies – both of which appear possible – it will be in power in 2015 in just one large state (Karnataka), one mid-sized state (Assam) and a smattering of small states (Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand) and a handful in the north-east, including Arunachal.
Kerala could slip from its grasp in 2016 when assembly elections are due and, if bifurcated, Andhra will elect local non-Congress governments from the TRS and YSR/TDP in Telangana and Seemandhra respectively when fresh assembly elections are held there.
Out of power in 2014 at the Centre and out of power in virtually every significant state by 2016: this is a prospect the Congress must confront sooner rather than later.
Is there a way back from the precipice? Only if the party develops strong state leaders and grassroots organizations. Too much dynasty, too much centralized power and too much hubris have led the Congress into a cul de sac where it has only two options: revamp the way it conducts its politics or be marginalized as a political force.
Mani Shankar Aiyar, making a virtue out of a necessity, says a spell in the opposition will do the Congress good. It might. But if by the time the 2019 Lok Sabha election arrives and the Congress is in power in only one or two large states, cadre morale will slump even further.
* * *
What about the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)? Will it draw voters away from the Modi wave that even Congress acolytes are now grudgingly calling a ripple? Will AAP be a factor at all in the 2014 parliamentary elections?
A repoll in the hung Delhi assembly election will pin Arvind Kejriwal down to the NCR till the re-election is over. As an elected Delhi MLA, if he contests the Lok Sabha poll and wins, he will have to give up either his assembly or parliament seat within six months. To abandon his assembly seat within months of being elected would not go down well with AAP voters in Delhi who elected him to serve the assembly. (The same principle would apply to Narendra Modi – but that would be after having served the state assembly for nearly 12 years.)
Statistics show that AAP took 6 out of 100 BJP votes and 36 out of 100 Congress votes in the Delhi assembly election. Even if it contests in a handful of NCR (and perhaps Bangalore) Lok Sabha seats, AAP is unlikely to draw significant votes from the BJP to allow a Third Front-Congress option.
In the final analysis, Uttar Pradesh and its 39 million Muslims could hold the key to 2014. However, no party can any longer take the Muslim vote for granted.
As A.K. Verma, who teaches politics at Christ Church College in Kanpur, wrote recently in The Economic Times: "There is a Muslim-OBC angle too. Many Muslims like Ansaris, Quraishis, Momins, Fakir and Muslim-Kayasthas are in the OBC list in UP. If the OBC character of Modi gets played up during the campaign, some Muslim OBCs may move towards Modi. Though Modi is focused on development, the BJP may highlight his OBC profile as polls draw closer. Mobilisation of a small segment of OBCs, both Hindus and Muslims, in favour of Modi, may prove to be his trump card."
Will that be enough to power the BJP to over 272 seats, along with pre- and post-poll allies? Who might these allies be? How do the numbers stack up nationally as we enter the final 150-day stretch of the 2014 Lok Sabha campaign? That and more in part 3.
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