Has AAP derailed Modi's campaign?

Chetan Bhagat
27 December 2013, 09:48 PM IST

Whether in Bollywood or in politics, one of the disadvantages of being a star is that people often don`t tell you when things go amiss. As a result, the star doesn`t realise it early enough to take corrective action. A key reason for this is the circle of people surrounding the star. They continue to sing his praises or come up with conspiracy theories to explain away problems.

Eventually, it is too late. It is for this reason we see some massive flops in the film industry, which make the audience scratch their heads and go `but didn`t anyone tell them?` In politics it comes out as an unexpected defeat, leaving the party wondering how they could have read the signs so wrong. Cong-ress`s recent four-state defeat or the 2009 NDA defeat are examples of so-called `shocking` results, when in retrospect the signs were there for all to see.

Similar enough is BJP`s current situation. Over the past month the Narendra Modi campaign has been derailed somewhat. There is little acknowledgment or effort to fix it, indicating denial. Whether chamchas and sycophants convey this or not, AAP and Arvind Kejriwal have taken a bit of sheen off Modi`s campaign.

BJP swept the recent assembly elections in four states, winning almost 80% of seats. However, media — both social and mainstream — kept their focus pri-marily on AAP and every action it took. Even Kejriwal's viral fever became news.

AAP's moment in the sun would have passed, if BJP kept doing its own thing but gave a genuine pat on the back to Kejriwal and company. For AAP can have limited impact on the 2014 Lok Sabha elections if it has national ambitions, especially if it has to run Delhi as well.

BJP's praise for AAP would have helped Modi. Even though politics is eventually a zero-sum game, many Modi supporters are also AAP supporters. These are the new fence-sitting voters, the change seekers, the aspirational class, the influencers, and the people with a soft spot for the underdog. These are progressive Indians who want to embrace the new — and that alone is enough for them to connect Modi and Kejriwal.

This is a vital, deciding set of voters in this election. Given how polarising a figure Modi is, it is well established that the BJP campaign would focus on these new, fence-sitting voters (Modi fans will vote Modi, Modi haters won't — preaching to either of them is a waste of time).

However, what did BJP do instead? One, they took an old-school RSS stance on Section 377. BJP`s stance, and their bizarre rationale for it, which included words like `unnatural` and 'against Indian culture', sent a scare down the spines of many young voters. They brought back the worst fears young voters have of BJP — that some frustrated old uncles will place restrictions on us in the name of what they feel is natural, Hindu or Indian.

I am sorry if this is unpleasant to hear, but it is exactly what young voters, especially women, think when they decide not to vote for BJP. Its trying to please the hardline Hindu set all the time is a big mistake. This segment will vote BJP anyway, but history has shown hardliners are not sufficient in number to bring it to power.

For the moment there is a risk to personal freedom, young voters cringe. Do you really think they care about the agricultural growth rate in Modi's Gujarat when there is a morbid fear of someone telling them not to wear jeans or celebrate Valentine`s Day (against Indian culture, no?). Sure, these issues are urban. But everyone knows even 10-20 seats could make the difference between whether Modi makes it to PM or not.

The second mistake was BJP`s immediate hostility to underdog AAP. Modi was himself an underdog a few years ago, with few in the party top leadership making space for him. People backed Modi just as they did Kejriwal to make them both rise. To that effect, Modi and BJP should have been more gracious about AAP's victory.

AAP may well compete with BJP one day. But it represents hope — exactly the same quality people see in Modi. BJP should have, in fact, offered unconditional support to AAP to run Delhi. Instead, BJP offers constant jibes on AAP and their newness, as if nobody new should ever try to be in politics. Sounds progressive to you?

All this can be fixed. However, at this stage, it will require Modi`s intervention. BJP`s stance on personal freedom has to be made clear on an urgent basis. It has to be progressive. The rest of the party has to back Modi. Also, do not attack AAP. In fact, find some common ground with it.

Overall, BJP needs to focus on delivering all that people see in Modi — hope, progress and freedom. Modi still remains the front runner for 2014, and it is still his election to lose. However, the 2014 game is in the slog overs now. This is often the stage where BJP messes up. Can Team Modi make sure that doesn`t happen this time?