03 December 2013, 11:40 AM IST
Beijing must demonstrate prudence and flexibility over territorial disputes in the region
With tensions rising in the East China Sea over China's declaration of the new Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), all stakeholders in the region would do well to take a step back. Reportedly the new Chinese ADIZ reflects Beijing's determination to treat vast areas of the East China Sea – beyond its territorial waters – as part of its exclusive economic sphere of influence. However, such a policy not only affects the freedom of navigation – via both air and sea – in these waters but also disregards the disputes over territorial claims in the region.
At the heart of the latest standoff involving China, the US, Japan and Taiwan are the Diaoyutai/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. The Diaoyutai – Chinese for fishing platform – group of uninhabited islands is separately claimed by Beijing, Tokyo and Taipei and has been a bone of contention since World War II. However, despite serious reservations by other stakeholders, the islands have been unilaterally incorporated in the newly declared Chinese ADIZ. Beijing now insists that all foreign aircraft flying over the islands – ergo entering the Chinese ADIZ – must now declare themselves to the Chinese authorities.
This clearly exemplifies China's efforts to annex the Diaoyutai islands through subterfuge. The US, which has significant stakes in the region in the wake of its Asian pivot and has deep military ties with Japan and Taiwan, was the first to challenge the Chinese ADIZ proclamation by scrambling two unarmed B-52 bombers to the area. This was followed by Japanese aircraft defying the Chinese diktat on flight information. Beijing responded by scrambling its own jets and reasserting its right to establish the ADIZ.
Interestingly, the conflict has come to the fore at a time when a new Chinese leadership is seeking to assert itself and generate domestic support for its ambitious plans on the economic front. There's no denying that China is at an important crossroads. Around three decades of rapid economic growth has not only pulled millions out of poverty but also created a burgeoning Chinese middle class. And with the increase in wealth the ordinary Chinese is demanding more from his leadership. The only way to satiate this massive demand is to provide more growth.
But that can only be possible if the Chinese economy opens up along with concomitant reforms on the political front. Hence, the new leadership led by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang has to walk a fine line. Failure to reform would mean increasing labour unrest and massive protests that would make Tiananmen look like a balmy tea party. On the other hand, too much economic and political liberalisation could challenge the authority of the Communist Party.
It is this conundrum that weighed heavy on the Chinese leadership during its recent Third Plenum. In its wake China's rulers have decided to push ahead with controlled reforms – greater play for market forces, more private capital in the banking sector, relaxing of the one-child and hukou (household registration) policies and an end to forced labour camps.
However, the Communist Party is hardly a monolith and those with vested interests in the current system are bound to resist the reforms and portray them as a betrayal of the Socialism-with-Chinese-characteristics ethos. And it is precisely to ward off such challenges and provide cover for the much-needed reforms that the current leadership under President Xi will increasingly play the nationalist card on territorial disputes.
By raking up nationalist sentiments the leadership hopes to generate public support and sideline the anti-reforms lobby. As a result, we are bound to see a more aggressive China on foreign affairs. But what Beijing must realise is that it is a part of an increasingly globalised world. It simply cannot achieve economic success in isolation. Hence, antagonising foreign partners such as Japan, Taiwan or South Korea – all crucial investors in China – on territorial issues is a zero-sum game.
In such a scenario, China could take a leaf out of Taiwan's book to tackle territorial disputes in the region, especially the one involving the Diaoyutais. Since last year, the Taiwanese government under the leadership of President Ma Ying-jeou has been trying to promote a compact called the East China Sea Peace Initiative. The proposal calls for shelving the contested question of sovereignty over disputed territories such as the Diaoyutais, engaging in dialogue and cooperating and evolving mechanisms to jointly harness and develop the resources of the region. In this way the parties involved avoid conflict and together reap the physical dividends of a disputed territory.
The principles underpinning the East China Sea Peace Initiative have already yielded a fisheries agreement between Taiwan and Japan pertaining to the fish-rich waters around the Diaoyutais. There's no reason why China can't be a member of a similar compact with Japan and Taiwan to jointly manage the Diaoyutai islands.
Given its huge borders and extensive coastline, China is embroiled in several territorial conflicts with its neighbours. Adopting a flexible approach would help the Chinese leadership focus its energies on pressing domestic economic issues rather than waste resources on convoluted territorial disputes. It would also demonstrate Beijing's resolve to contribute towards peace and stability in the region.
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