06 March 2014, 05:49 PM IST
In the home stretch leading up to the 2014 Lok Sabha election beginning April 7, four political forces will come into play. First, the BJP and its expanding orbit of NDA allies. Second, the Congress and its shrinking UPA base. Third, the ragtag Third Front. And fourth, the equally amorphous Fourth Front.
The following analysis factors in several key issues: one, the formation of Telangana; two, the entry of Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP into the BJP-led NDA; three, the possibility of Raj Thackeray's MNS not contesting the 2014 Lok Sabha poll; four, the unravelling of the AIADMK-Left alliance; and fifth, likely new alliances between the BJP and small parties in Tamil Nadu (DMDK, PMK, MDMK), Haryana and elsewhere.
So what do the numbers throw up?
Start with likely seats for the BJP. As frontrunner, BJP strategists should break up their seat target into three categories: Focus States, Challenging States and Small States/UTs.
Here are the projections:
Focus states
- Gujarat: 23
- Madhya Pradesh: 25
- Rajasthan: 22
- Maharashtra: 18
- Uttar Pradesh: 48
- Bihar: 24
- Karnataka: 15
- Chhattisgarh: 8
- Jharkhand: 8
- Uttarakhand: 4
Total: 195
Challenging states
- Haryana: 4
- Punjab: 2
- Assam: 5
- West Bengal: 1
- Kerala: 1
- Andhra Pradesh (Telangana): 2
- Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra): 1
- Odisha: 1
- Tamil Nadu: 2
- Others: 2
Total 21
Small states/UTs
- Goa: 2
- Daman & Diu: 1
- Nagar Haveli: 1
- Himachal Pradesh: 3
- Jammu & Kashmir: 2
- Delhi: 3
- Andamans: 1
- Others: 1
Total: 14
BJP: overall total: 230
Turn now to the Congress:
Assuming the TRS fights the general election in a seat sharing alliance with the Congress in Andhra Pradesh (Telangana constituencies), these are the likely numbers for the Congress:
- Gujarat : 3
- Madhya Pradesh: 3
- Rajasthan: 1
- Chhattisgarh: 3
- Maharashtra: 9
- Karnataka: 12
- Uttar Pradesh: 4
- Bihar: 1
- Jharkhand: 2
- Uttarakhand: 1
- Haryana: 2
- Punjab: 1
- Assam: 5
- West Bengal: 4
- Kerala: 7
- Andhra Pradesh (Telangana): 4
- Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra): 1
- Odisha: 4
- Tamil Nadu: 1
- Others: 7
Total: 75
How does the Third Front stack up?
Third Front
- Left (four parties): 25
- SP: 10
- BJD: 12
- JD(U): 4
- Others: 7
Total: 58
The likely rupture in the AIADMK's alliance with the Left parties could sound the death knell of the Third Front, especially with the BJD also turning sceptical.
What about the Fourth Front, comprising parties antagonistic to the Third Front? Their likely numbers:
Fourth Front
- TMC: 27
- DMK: 9
- YSR: 12
- BSP: 18
- Others: 6
Total: 72
So we have our final math:
NDA: BJP (230) + SS (15) + SAD (7) + TDP (12) + LJP (2) + Others/Independents (18) = 284.
UPA: Congress (75) + NCP (5) + NC (1) +TRS (7) + RJD (8) + Others (8) = 104.
Third Front: Left Front (25) + SP (10) + JDU (4) + BJD (12) + Others (7) = 58.
Fourth Front: TMC (27) + DMK (9) + YSR (12) + BSP (18) + Others (6) = 72.
Likely post-poll governing combinations? Here are two:
- UPA + Third Front: 106+58 =164. Plus outside support from AAP (10)=174. Add mercurial BSP (18) = 192 – well short of a working majority.
- NDA + post-poll allies: 284 + AIADMK (22) = 306.
Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR (12) and others from the Fourth Front could join the NDA though their numbers would not be critical to forming a stable government. Is there a further upside for the NDA? With two months of campaigning to go in this 9-phase election, there clearly is.
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