14 March 2014, 01:36 PM IST
All is fair in love and electoral war. As polls draw near and the Election Commission enforces its code of conduct on campaigning parties which prevents them putting posters and banners in public view to woo voters, our ever ingenious politicians are devising new ways to catch the attention of the electorate.
Political memorabilia — such as AAP caps and Modi mugs and trademark kurtas — are doing brisk business. AIADMK's Jayalalithaa has, however, devised a new way to keep herself in the public limelight: Coimbatore has released a 1965 Tamil movie 'Aayirathil Oruvan' starring herself in her earlier career avatar as a film star and her mentor and AIADMK founder, M G Ramachandran, with the result that the streets of the city are awash with colourful, eye—catching posters and hoardings depicting a much younger version of Amma. The movie is soon to be released in Kerala and Karnataka as well as in Tamil Nadu.
The Tamil Nadu chief electoral officer Praveen Kumar has said that the publicity material for the film will not be permitted on the streets of the city, but only within the movie halls where it is showing. However, the remastered version of the film in cinemascope will have huge popular appeal. As the head of the company which distributed 80 of the legendary MGR's film is reported to have said: "MGR movies still connect with viewers. One movie show will have the impact of 10 public meetings."
There's another way for politicians and political parties literally to beat the odds and command more than their fair share of the public mindset. Though opinion polls have come under suspicion on charges of rigging, there is another way to influence public opinion: the illegal and yet highly publicised countrywide 'Satta Market', of bookies who accept bets from punters as to who is going to win in the elections, and by how much of a margin.
This clandestine gambling network — currently estimated to do business worth Rs 70,000 crore, much more than the official cost of the elections themselves — has long been regarded as an accurate barometer of the political climate in the country, indeed more so than the learned commentaries and analyses made by self—styled 'experts' and showcased in the media. After all, pontificating political pundits are putting nothing more tangible than words in their mouths when they make predictions; when bookies make their assessments as to winners and losers they are putting their money where their mouth is.
According to the satta market, the current favourites are the BJP and Narendra Modi. The bookies are offering 22 paise winnings for every rupee bet on the BJP bagging 200 seats. If you bet on Modi becoming PM, you will be offered 42 paise on every rupee, the comparable odds — which are in inverse proportion to their chances of winning — for Rahul Gandhi are Rs 6.5 for every rupee wagered, and Rs 500 for every rupee if Arvind Kejriwal romps home to claim the prime ministerial gaddi.
Can the satta market influence the outcome of elections in a way similar to that of opinion polls? It could. For instance, a party with deep pockets could through benami sources place a lot of money with bookies predicting a win for itself. This would affect the odds being offered on the satta market for that party, a fact that the media would inevitably report on — as indeed this blog is doing right now.
By betting a lot of money on its own victory, a party could influence public opinion, via the bookie network, resulting in a self—fulfilling prophecy.
It seems that, in more ways than one, parliamentary democracy remains a gamble.
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