12 May 2014, 02:42 AM IST
The campaigning for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls has come to an end. The 2014 general election was supposed to be a presidential kind of fight between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. Arvind Kejriwal deserves credit for making it a triangular contest. In fact, by the time the campaigning ended in Varanasi, Kejriwal has managed to trump Rahul Gandhi to emerge as the leading voice against Modi. But in so doing, he and the AAP may have "unintentionally" helped the BJP and Modi come on the top during the polls. Here is how:
Spreading out too thin
When AAP decided to contest the Lok Sabha elections, it had two choices: To concentrate on some winnable 40-50 seats or to fight on as many seats as possible. It went for the latter and the party is contesting on over 400 seats, second only to the Congress. It would have been better if the AAP had focused on winning maximum number of Lok Sabha seats. By not concentrating on "winnable" seats, the AAP is indirectly helping the BJP in the following ways:
* The decision to go national has diluted the brand AAP. The AAP did not have time and resources to verify credentials of its candidates. Many of its candidates have withdrawn from contests, giving the AAP a bad name. With the Congress in total disarray, the BJP is likely to be the main beneficiary of any failings of the AAP.
* The AAP is still an emerging party and its support base lies primarily in urban areas — a traditional stronghold of the BJP. Its means of mass mobilization like door-to-door campaign and holding mohalla meetings are more apt for the urban areas. So, it could have easily avoided the temptation to field candidates in rural areas and should have focused on winning in cities. In the last election, the Congress did manage to win a large number of urban seats; but with the ruling party in decline, the Modi-led BJP is expected to win handsomely in cities again. An urban-centric AAP would have given a tough fight to the BJP. Had Kejriwal and Co fought only in cities, they may have turned it into a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP. In such a scenario, a tally of even 20 seats for the AAP would mean a loss of 40 seats for the BJP. In the end, it could well turn out to be the difference between an NDA and a non-NDA government.
Kejriwal's decision to challenge Modi in Varanasi
On the face of it, Kejriwal's decision to fight against Narendra Modi in Varanasi appears a master stroke on many counts. First, the AAP is no position to match the BJP and Congress's financial resources and media blitzkrieg. But, with this single decision of not caring for his reputation and challenging Modi in Varanasi, Kejriwal has managed to keep the AAP in media all the time. Second, Kejriwal has convinced his supporters that he is not after power; had it been so, he would have fought from any "safe" seat and would have won easily.
Third, a victory in Varanasi will galvanize the AAP for the coming Delhi assembly elections. Finally, in Kejriwal's own words, "if Modi is defeated in Varanasi, no one will make him the PM." In Kejriwal's scheme of things, a defeat for Modi in Varanasi would stop him from becoming the PM.
Is it so? Will a Kejriwal win in Varanasi mean Modi would not be the PM even if the NDA has the numbers? It does not look like. When it comes to the leadership issue, the Modi-led BJP has moved even beyond the Congress. As Congress goes all out to defend the Gandhis on any issue, the BJP would find innumerable reasons to justify the "Modi for PM" chant, even if he is defeated from Varanasi.
'What if Kejriwal loses in Varanasi? It will demoralize the AAP and if Modi becomes the PM, the BJP would certainly have an upper hand in the Delhi assembly elections. Thus, while trying to stop Modi from becoming the PM, Kejriwal might blow his chances to be the Delhi CM again. If this happens, the BJP would have the last laugh.
AAP's conscious attempt to play the secular card
No one doubts the secular credentials of Arvind Kejriwal and other high-profile AAP leaders. But in the last few months, there appears to be a conscious effort from Kejriwal to play the secular card. When Kejriwal first visited Varanasi to announce his candidature, he bathed in the Ganga, visited the Sankatmochan temple and stopped during an "azzan". There is nothing wrong in doing all these, but if you are doing this in full media glare, then it becomes difficult to refute the charge that you are putting up a "public show". This is a very treacherous path to walk. Trying to pander to all religions is like doing the great Indian rope trick with every chance of likely to fall — the Congress found it out in 1989, when it tried to please both Muslims and Hindus and ended up antagonizing both.
Then, there was the issue of Shazia Ilmi's video. No "play of words" can justify it as a secular way of canvassing for votes. The AAP was right in quickly distancing itself from Shazia Ilmi's comments.
Nevertheless, the "impression" has gone out that the AAP is consciously courting Muslim votes. The AAP looks set to win away a large chunk of Muslim votes from the Congress. With its own win in doubt, the AAP is also reducing the Congress's chance of winning. Again, it is an outcome which only favours the BJP.
AAP's attack on media
There is an apprehension that a Narendra Modi-led Centre would test the autonomy and independence of key democratic institutions, including the media. No one can deny that the media has its own corporate interests and "embedded journalists" who are more than sympathetic to Modi. But to paint all media with one brush is patently wrong. Kejriwal's alleged threat to put journalists in jail if he came to power put him in the league of Modi. It made Kejriwal appear "dictatorial" and blunted the AAP's attack on Modi — at least, on the style of leadership.
AAP has made a place for itself
Despite all these missteps, Kejriwal and AAP can proudly claim that they are trying to practice an alternative kind of politics and it hardly matters who wins in the short term.
Since its formation in November 2012, the AAP has defied many predictions and surprised us with its unique style of politics. It may again catch us off guard with its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. But even if it fails, it might be a blessing in disguise for the party. The AAP has been running too fast. It will get a chance to reassess itself and plan afresh. Given the current level of socioeconomic development, India is ready for the AAP or a new avatar of it. If not in this election, then certainly in the next.
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