01 May 2014, 12:00 PM IST
As the sun sets over the golden wheatfields of this central Doab region of Uttar Pradesh and darkness falls over the ancient land, the only light to pierce the gloom are the streetlights of Saifai village in Mainpuri, shining so brightly so as to illuminate the football stadium in the middle distance. Now we knew we are fully and firmly in Mulayam Singh Yadav territory.
Dhaba stops for tea and conversation en route have revealed more of the same: In this Yadav heartland, the 'garh' or bastion of the Mulayam Singh Yadav family, loyalty to primeval orders like kinship, community and caste have a much stronger pull than newer relationships sought to be engineered by the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.
The Muzaffarnagar riots are a recent memory, but the predominantly Muslim village of Mohammedpur Mandai say they will still vote for Mulayam. "Majboor hain..." goes the refrain. We don't have a choice. In Ghiror town, famous for its produce of garlic, the filth from months of refusing to sweep the streets is in your face, but the vote will still go to the ruling Samajwadi Party. Mulayam has not visited Ghiror even once, people point out, because he knows our vote isn't going anywhere else. (When Ghiror did dare to vote with its hands and feet for the Bahujan Samaj Party MLA Jaiveer Singh in 2007, and after he refused to deliver but shifted to nearby Farrukhabad instead, they remorsefully returned to the SP.) And in neighbouring Kannauj, once won by the great Socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia and to which inheritance Mulayam's daughter-in-law Dimple has laid claim, the Yadav army is out in full force.
"Dimple bhabhi !" is the battle-cry, as chief minister Akhilesh Yadav campaigns for his wife, surrounded by hordes of young men in shining SUVs careening down village roads and bullying the poor 'thanedar' if he dares to moderate their enthusiasm. As for Dimple, she smiles sweetly. "The people want me back," she tells me. Her predominantly male audience at the party office, who have kept up a constant roar of approval, meanwhile, intermittently diving at her feet in pure shock and awe, cannot believe that this pure piece of sweet confectionery can descend upon the Kannauj badlands asking for, what, their vote ?
The truth is that in this central UP battleground as well as further east into the Poorvanchal region, the so-called "Modi wave" is both heavily moderated as well as fulfilled by the ancient code of caste. In Kannauj, for example, the fight is between Dimple Yadav and BSP candidate Nirmal Tiwari, whose upper caste-ness complements the lower castes that fundamentally support the pro-Dalit part . The BJP candidate, Subrat Pathak, may as well not exist. In nearby Kanpur, the boatmen on the Ganga who make up the Nishad, Saini, Paswan and Mallah lower castes have decided to vote BJP – because Mayawati threw them into jail under the Goonda Act when she was chief minister from 2007-12 – but their families have decided to stay with the BSP. And in Azamgarh, from where Mulayam Singh is fighting his second seat, Ramakant Yadav of the BJP will take on the Yadav strongman, in what is a political battle between the same castes, thereby trumping the Hindutva plank of the BJP.
None other than the magnificent machine of the BJP understands this best. In western UP, within sniffing distance of the temptations of the city, it is much easy to manufacture a riot, for example in Muzaffarnagar. In these parts, the influence of the Arya Samaj, with its overt and covert filtering of Hindus and Muslims -- remember that Swami Dayanand preached in Garh Mukteshwar, on the banks of the Ganga, in the 19th century, around the time the Darul-Uloom seminary was being set up in nearby Deoband --is still strong.
But in central and eastern UP, it isn't as easy to triumph over caste, not with the polarising promise of religion and certainly not through dreams of progress and development – at least, not yet. Despite the incredibly overwhelming pull of TV, which reaches into the poorest mud-packed villages and where name recognition for Narendra Modi is incredibly high, caste loyalty is the old familiar. And so the BJP promises a little bit for everybody, the caste of that community uppermost in mind : For upper and intermediate castes like Brahmins and Thakurs, a Hindutva revival of sorts, homely comfort for its traditional, right-wing trader caste votebank, while reassurance is being proferred to floating Dalit caste groups like the Valmikis, Rajbhars and Malis in the hope they will wean themselves away from Mayawati's core Chamar-Pasi-Khatig votebank, especially where the BSP has put up a Muslim candidate. In Deoria in eastern UP, for example, the BJP's Kalraj Mishra is expected to cut into the BSP vote because the candidate is Niyaz Khan.
Can this ancient potpourri survive the marvels of the 21st century? Or will the new ruler of Delhi finally update the operating systems of the old country?
India awaits, with some trepidation, for May 16.
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