If I were Zaibunissa Kazi…

Shobhaa De
31 March 2013, 04:02 AM IST

Question: What is the one thing Zaibunissa Kazi seems to have done right in her 70-plus years? Answer: She has produced one hell of a smart daughter! Listening to Shagufta Kazi arguing her mother's case across countless television channels, it became abundantly clear that here was a young woman who knew how the media game is played. Tutored or not, her presentation was faultless. She stuck to her script and refused to budge from her "My mother is not guilty," position. Shagufta's timing was impeccable as well. And her emotional pitch must have touched countless soft hearts — including Markandey Katju's. Suddenly, the focus shifted from Sanjay Dutt and his Bollywood buddies, to an ailing old lady's tragic condition. She was sick…she was dying… she had suffered for a crime she had not confessed to…twenty years later, she was being sent back to jail…prison life would definitely kill her…besides, she was innocent! It was a brilliant strategy — and it worked!

Sorry for the cynicism. But the way this entire saga is going right now (one sob story after another), makes one wonder whether we need a Supreme Court in India at all! If verdicts are there to be questioned and challenged by any and everybody, why bother with the long drawn out judicial process in the first place? What we are witnessing today, is nothing but staged high drama involving high profile public figures, playing on the country's emotions. Certainly, asking for pardon is the prerogative of every citizen. And one must hand it to Sanjay Dutt (it's really pretty obscene to keep referring to a 54-yearold man as 'Sanju Baba' ) for making his position clear on the issue ("No thank you," he says). But this particular case is not an ordinary one. The horrific terror attacks on Mumbai left 257 dead, and 713 injured, making this one of the best planned and most devastating terror attacks in the world. Those implicated have had 20 years to think about their involvement and express remorse. One hasn't come across an apology so far. It seems incredible that the accused expected fellow citizens to forgive and forget what took place in 1993, considering it was fellow citizens who were under attack in the first place.

Markandey Katju is an enigma. Or maybe, he is just another retired Judge seeking political office like several others before him. He insists he has examined the case thoroughly before offering support and intervention.

Most citizens would have problems with the learned former judge's stand. It is hard to find 'sympathy' for those who were willing to endorse the killing of innocents in cold blood. It is harder still to accept the argument that a man in his 30s at the time (Sanjay Dutt), thought it fit to keep an AK-56 for "selfprotection"! One assumes he would have used the deadly weapon against fellow Indians, had such a need arisen? Dutt has an entire army of supporters working for him right now — and good luck to the actor. It is hard not to like this affable man mountain. But hello! A verdict is a verdict, no matter how adorable the accused and regardless of how much money is riding on him. Dutt has taken it on the chin and is being a man about it. That leaves Zaibunissa and her smart daughter. If I were in Zaibunissa's place, I would leave it to Shagufta to fight my battle. Shagufta is far more savvy than a battery of lawyers. She can also teach the cleverest PR professionals a thing or two about pitching a story that tugs at millions of heart strings. All that remains for this duo to do is to hire a high-profile celebrity — and fire the rest of their advisers (assuming they exist). Celebrities these days rent by the hour and can be easily convinced to come on board, when the case is this media-driven. Zaibunissa's projection as a seriously ill, tormented victim with a failed kidney condition has already worked in her favour. And Shagufta has shrewdly taken the 'trial by public opinion' route. As for the bleeding heart Judge Katju, one can see where he's coming from, and more importantly, where he is going.

That leaves the families of the dead and injured. Aaah — them! Well… ummm… yes. Poor things. Something must be done for them soon. But before that — how about pardoning Sanjay Dutt and Zaibunissa Kazi?

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Slums are hubs of hope, progress and dignity

SA Aiyar
31 March 2013, 05:42 AM IST

The Census Commissioner has released a new report showing that 64 million people, representing one in six urban residents, live in slums with unsanitary conditions "unfit for human habilitation." This has caused much moaning and groaning. But conditions are far worse in most villages. Romantic pastoralists may fantasise about happy green villages as opposed to filthy urban slums. But migration of millions proves that villagers see slums, warts and all, as the way forward.

Yes, slums are dirty, but they are also entrepreneurial hubs where India's poor are climbing up the ladder of opportunity and income. The census report shows that 16.7% of slum households are factories, shops and offices. These are humming commercial centres, not dead-ends.

Dharavi in Mumbai, India's largest slum, has an estimated business turnover of $650 million. It has created slumdog millionaires aplenty. They should be objects of envy, not objects of pity.

Dalit writers like Chandhra Bhan Prasad and Milind Kamble have highlighted how cities are hubs of opportunity and dignity. Ambedkar rightly denounced villages as cesspools of cruelty and prejudice. Dominant castes continue acting like feudal rulers in many rural areas. Social barriers make it difficult for dalits and shudras to raise their heads in many villages. But once they migrate to towns, they escape the caste discrimination and landowner-dependency of rural India. They earn far more in towns than in villages, and the money they send home frees their relatives from historical dependence on village feudatories.

Slums are the entry point of the poor into cities. Insane tax and urban land policies have encouraged a never-ending avalanche of black money into real estate. Urban land prices have skyrocketed, and bear no relationship to the income they generate. Land is unaffordable by most of the middle class, let alone the poor. This is one reason why urbanization has been so slow in India.

The poor can enter cities only through existing or new shanty-towns. This is illegal, yet fully accepted by politicians as a legitimate form of entry. So, shanty-towns are frequently regularized before election time.

No politician dares raze them. Rather, they are improved through supplies of water and electricity. Many slums simply steal electricity, with the tacit backing of politicians plus bribes to linesmen.

The census description of slums as "unfit for human habitation" is highly misleading. In fact census data prove that slums are much better off than villages, which are presumably fit for habitation! No less than 70% of slum households have TVs, against only 47% of total Indian households. The ratio is just 14.5% in Bihar and 33.2% in UP. Even Narendra Modi's shining Gujarat (51.2%) and Pawar's Maharashtra (58.8%) have a far lower rate of TV ownership than our slums!

True, 34% of slums don't have toilets. Yet the ratio is as high as 69.3% in rural India. Ratios are worst in rural Jharkhand (90%) and Bihar (82%). But even Modi's Gujarat (67%) and Pawar's Maharashtra (62%) are far worse off than urban slums.

Similar stories hold for access to tap water, education, healthcare, electricity or jobs. As many as 90% of slum dwellers have electricity, against barely half of rural households. Ownership of cellphones (63.5%) is as high among slum dwellers as richer urban households, and way above rural rates. One-tenth of slums have computers, and 51% have cooking gas (not far short of 65 per cent of total urban households). Amazingly, more slum households (74 per cent) have tap water than total urban households (70.6 per cent).

So, let nobody misinterpret the Census report on slums as a terrible indictment. The report does indeed highlight unsanitary, cramped conditions, and the need to improve these. Yet it also provides a wealth of data showing how slums are better off than villages, and how on some counts slum-dwellers are as well off as richer urban dwellers. The report fails to highlight the extent to which slums have generated thousands of thriving businesses. It also fails to highlight the role of slums in helping conquer rural caste and feudal oppression.

Forget tear-jerkers about our filthy slums. Instead, see them as entry-points of the poor into the land of urban opportunity. See them as havens of dignity for dalits and shudras. See them as hubs of rising income and asset ownership, which have already generated several rupee millionaires.

This means we need more slums, more hubs of opportunity. The urban gentry want to demolish slums, but they are plain wrong. Instead we should improve slum sanitation, water supply and garbage disposal. We need more improved slums, upgraded slums, but slums nevertheless.

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Let’s celebrate the ‘good enough’

Vinita Dawra Nangia
31 March 2013, 08:54 AM IST

Why must life be a swinging between extremes? Let us learn to enjoy the in-between state when we are 'ok'

"Is that dish good?" I asked my husband at the dinner table. "No," he replied frankly, spooning in a mouthful. "Well, is it bad?" I asked, bristling and wondering why was he eating it if he didn't like it!

"Not really. Actually, it's neither too good, nor too bad!" he replied, seeming quite content.

Befuddled, and thinking maybe he didn't want to take a stance at the dining warzone, I retorted, "Well, so long as it's not bad, eat it!"

He just gave me 'the look'. That's exactly what the poor guy was doing anyway! Eating contentedly. Next morning I got a text from an angry friend whose former boyfriend had sent her words from an old love song they had considered 'their' song. "How dare he!" she protested. "After all that we went through, why is he playing with my emotions now? If we cannot be what we were, I would rather not connect at all! This changes nothing!"

"Of course it doesn't change anything," I told her gently. "And yet it is 'something' isn't it? After all, nobody was holding a gun to his head to send you that message, and he still did so. So, why don't you just sit back and enjoy the little 'something' without thinking too much about it? We should take life as it comes and be sure to make the most of the 'ok' stuff that comes along as well."

We all have this proclivity of swinging between extremes. It's the 'everything' and the 'nothing' that get undue importance, while the 'something' gets totally lost! The 'best' and the 'worst' get noticed, while the 'good enough' is ignored. Whereas if you really think about it, most of the time it is the 'good enough' that we live with, even as we strive for the best! Extreme situations, whether good or bad, bring with them anxiety, whereas the in-between is a state of contentment and satisfaction. You don't have to passionately love or hate someone, most often it is desirable to find someone's presence comfortable and dependable; passion isn't a state that lasts, love and comfort continue.

Every meal need not be a gourmet meal, which doesn't mean it should be inedible or badly done. Most meals are good enough. So the desired state of life should be the in-between, which also lasts longer, rather than the extreme, which ends faster. In between happiness and sadness lies satisfaction.

Remember Gautam Buddha's "Middle Path"? The path of moderation between the extremes of self-indulgence and selfdenial. The 'middle' or the 'good enough' way is at the very core of Buddhism, spelt out in the Buddha's first sermon. Both the hedonistic and the ascetic ways of life are decried and Buddha recommends the Eightfold path, which helps one lead an enlightened lifestyle. The Noble Eight — Right View, Right Intention, Right Speech, Right Action, Right Livelihood, Right Effort, Right Mindfulness, and Right Concentration — spell the Buddhist way to Nirvana. Enlightenment according to Buddha, comes from within, not from anything the world can give us. Following a balanced, middle path affords the vision to see things as they are, and the understanding to awaken the inner wisdom and obtain a calm mind. And then, we are all Buddha.
And in this way, the balanced middle path, or as we called it, the 'good enough' can help awaken us to the absolute best, which is within us. In celebrating the ordinary, the mundane, and the balance of life, in celebrating and enjoying the 'Ok' and the 'good enough', we open our minds and hearts to perpetual happiness and peace. So what if you lack that whimsical thing called passion, at least you share a love and care that lasts! So what if you do not enjoy gourmet meals every day? At least you are healthy enough to enjoy your humble meal all through life! So what if you didn't reach the pinnacle of worldly success, at least you sleep peacefully and have enough time for your loved ones.
Indeed, most often 'just fine' is 'good enough.'

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Mavericks to Modi’s rescue

Chidanand Rajghatta
30 March 2013, 06:47 AM IST

The word maverick is derived from an American cattle rancher named Samuel Maverick who was best known for NOT branding his cattle at a time when marking them for ownership was the done thing. Those wild west days are gone. In recent times, in the days of corporate farming, young calves are branded or tattooed or electronically tagged by the hundreds and thousands so that they can be herded together easily. There are very few mavericks, and the concept of open range or free range is rare in industrial age and industrial scale farming.

The word itself has migrated to other fields, particularly public life, where one hears often of maverick politicians. It simply means he or she is an individualist who doesn't toe the party line. Even this species has become increasingly rare. In democracies such as India and the US, party cadre typically falls in line, sometimes under the expedient excuse of consensus, under an expansive platform . It helps to stay in the fold, especially when one needs the party's image, organisational support , and its bankrolling to get elected. So party panjandrums swear by the party, its ideology and manifesto, and digressions are rare.

In the US, upwards of 90 per cent of lawmakers are returned to Congress with metronomic regularity in election after election, usually after they have sworn by the party line. Indian lawmakers are even more timid. Violating the party line can deny you a ticket. But within the party itself some amount of dissent and digression is permitted , particularly in the US. Sometimes such expression of dissent, bordering on rebellion, may go against perceived national interest.

For instance, in the past decade, there have been lawmakers , including some Republicans , who opposed the Iraq War. Some of them visited Baghdad in the days before George Bush decided to bomb the Iraqi capital. A decade after that mindless war, Lincoln Chaffee, then Republican Senator who joined six other GOP lawmakers in voting against the use of force, is even more vehement in calling it an unnecessary war. He went so far as to oppose George Bush's renomination of John Bolton, a war hawk, as the US ambassador to UN, effectively shafting it. He quit the party much later and went on to run for and win the Governorship of Rhode Island, the first independent to do so in more than 200 years. You could say he is a maverick. Going even further back, there were lawmakers, including Republicans such as John Sherman Cooper and George Aiken who vocally opposed the Johnson administration's Vietnam policies advocated negotiations and de-escalation as early as 1964. It's hard to imagine such open dissent in India against national security policy. Although Sri Lanka is starting to show up some cracks, that is more on account of regional and ethnic politics.

In the light of all this it was interesting to see three American lawmakers, all Republicans , make a beeline to Gujarat to meet with Narendra Modi and invite him to the US, breaking what is seemingly a national consensus. After all, the ban on Modi's travel to the US was instituted by the Bush dispensation, and the Obama administration has only continued the policy. So why would the three (mavericks?) break rank, particularly when Washington and New Delhi have washed their hands of the matter and not encouraged anyone to do so? In this instance, both the Indian embassy in Washington and the US embassy in New Delhi were kept out of the loop. From all accounts, the three US Representatives are not part of any Congressional Delegation (CoDel) visiting under the aegis of FICCI or CII, the usual route for such trips. They reportedly signed up for the trip at the instance of Shalabh Kumar, a millionaire Illinois businessman belonging to the Overseas Friends of BJP, in what is evidently an effort to persuade the administration to lift the ban on Modi. The group will visit ten Indian cities in ten days in a private jet arranged by the Overseas BJP.

The US lawmakers' profile offers an interest insight into what drives their Modi/India foray. All three are relatively young, personable Representatives who have run enterprising small businesses before entering politics. Their constituency reflects small town America in dire need of economic oxygen. Clearly, their outreach reflects the aspiration of their constituents, Washington politics be damned. Illinois Representative Aaron Schlock, the leader of the group, typifies this thinking. He's elected from the Illinois' 18th Congressional district, which includes the city of Peoria, which is the world headquarters of Caterpillar Inc, but also a byword for Middle America or "provincial" in America. The two other Representatives , Cynthia Lummis and Cathy Rodgers, are from districts that have similar small cities, Cheyenne in Wyoming and Spokane in Washington State. These are cities eager to do business.

In the marketing world, they say that if it flies, or sells, in Peoria, it will do so anywhere. In that sense, it is a metaphor for mainstream acceptance. So if a maverick from Peoria comes calling on Modi, it's a fair guess that the US ban on him will soon be ending.

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Will Supreme Court rule for patients over patents?

Rema Nagarajan
30 March 2013, 12:47 PM IST

 

The Swiss pharmaecutical company, Novartis, having lost the case to change India's patent law in the Madras High Court and before the Intellectual Property Appellate Board, is now making a last ditch effort before the Supreme Court. The ruling of the Apex Court is expected on April 1, Monday. The entire developing world is waiting with bated breath to see if the court will rule to uphold the Indian patent law which prevents patents from being granted for new form of a known medicine. After all, a large number of developing countries depend on Indian manufacturers for cheap and reliable supply of generic medicines that can treat cancer, HIV and other life threatening diseases.

Novartis drug called Glivec, whose generic name is imatinib mesylate, is a crucial anti-cancer drug. While Glivec costs Rs.1.2 lakh ($ 2,400) per patient per month, Indian generic companies sell generic versions of the same medicine for just Rs. 8,000- 10,000 ($160 – 200) per patient per month.

Since 2005, Novartis has been trying to stop the generic production of Glivec by getting a patent on it in India and in the process, also challenging the Indian law that allows the generic production of this medicine. Novartis has challenged section 3(d) of the Indian Patent Law which prevents patents from being given to new forms of already known substances. The company has been trying to get this section, which was put in as a public health safeguard in the Indian law, declared contrary to the trade agreement TRIPS.  So far, Novartis has failed.

Even the scientist behind the discovery of imatinib, Brian Druker, had written an opinion piece in 2007 publicly stating that "the price at which imatinib has been offered for sale by Novartis around the world has caused me considerable discomfort. Pharmaceutical companies that have invested in the development of medicines should achieve a return on their investments. But this does not mean the abuse of these exclusive rights by excessive prices and seeking patents over minor changes to extend monopoly prices. This goes against the spirit of the patent system and is not justified given the vital investments made by the public sector over decades that make the discovery of these medicines possible." 

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF-Doctors Without Borders) had launched an international petition to persuade Novartis to drop the case in India but the company refused to do so. MSF pointed out: "Granting a patent on a medicine provides the patent holder with a monopoly on that medicine, which in turn allows the company to charge a high price in the absence of any generic competition. In fact, improving access to medicines is a matter of not simply making the medicine available but also making it affordable for patients and governments to buy."

Affordable healthcare for millions of patients across the world and India's status as the pharmacy of the developing world are now in the hands of the Apex Court. 

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Karunanidhi arrested for stopping Jayalalithaa’s escort

Arun Ram
30 March 2013, 07:34 PM IST

I didn't make that up.

Dr Karunanidhi, a 70-year-old physician in Chennai was arrested on Thursday and kept in prison overnight. The charge: Causing hurt to a public servant. What he did: Asking a police sub-inspector accompanying Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa, who was visiting a patient in Apollo Specialty Hospitals, to remove his shoes before entering the intensive care unit.

That's quite a daring thing to do, since Asaithambi, the sub-inspector, was accompanying a VVIP none less than Jayalalithaa. How could a septuagenarian doctor ask him to remove the footwear which is an integral part of his uniform? What if the officer carries a few million pathogens to the ICU endangering the lives of several patients, he was escorting the chief minister, don't you know? This is Tamil Nadu, you see.

While many papers played down the story or ignored it altogether, TOI reported it on Friday and frontpaged a follow-up on Saturday, catalysing a flurry of protests from doctors and politicians. DMK leader M Karunanidhi, his tongue firmly in cheek, wondered if the doctor was punished because his name was also Karunanidhi.

Sending a 70-year-old man to jail – even if he had done the unlikely act of 'causing hurt to a public servant – is questionable legally and outright ridiculous by common sense. If that spoke volumes about misuse of power, the silence that followed the arrest (till TOI published the stories on Saturday) signified a nauseating sense of subservience. The doctor was understandably too shocked to react, and his family was scared of further victimisation. Even his neighbours refused to talk. The usually vociferous guardian angels of civil liberties and human rights did not notice it.

Police have this inane ability to be arrogant while escorting important people. One can understand their sense of duty to ensure the safety of the person they guard, but that doesn't entitle them to treat citizens like dirt. This attitude is representative of a deeper malaise that gnaws at the roots of self respect in a land where the self respect movement of Periyar Ramaswamy spawned the powerful Dravidian parties of today.

The powers that be in Tamil Nadu have repeatedly dressed up vindictiveness as a virtue, but if the king is naked, he deserves to be told that. I know that anyone can be sent to jail for at least a day if someone powerful doesn't like something—like this blog.

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Gujarat's swine flu puzzle

Rajiv Shah
29 March 2013, 01:28 PM IST

It was October 29, 2009 evening, around 5.00 pm. I had just reached my office in Gandhinagar after my routine round of Sachivalaya. A journalist-colleague, representing a vernacular daily, came down to me and told me that Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, back from Russia, was suffering from swine flu. As a newsperson, I didn't believe what he said, yet I tried to frantically find out whether this was true, but all in vain. Then sitting in the same building, Akhbar Bhavan, this journalist told me frankly, he had filed a story about this to his paper, but it was not being carried as his bosses in Ahmedabad found the information "humbug". Hence, in retaliation he had decided to pass on the "exclusive" information, to which he alone was privy, to me and others. Thanks to this journalist, several newspapers quietly pushed out a news item about Modi suffering from swine flu as some sort of rumour with a punch-line (not uncommon) that there was no confirmation from official sources.

Next day, all congratulated this journalist. At a media conference in the ministerial complex of Gandhinagar, at the community hall opposite Modi's residence, top doctors from Ahmedabad, who were treating Modi, announced that the CM had "early symptoms" of swine flu, his condition was "under control" and was "normalizing". About the same time when the media conference was on, I received 14 missed calls from a senior Civil Hospital physician, whom I knew well. I had put my mobile phone on the silent mode. I rang him up. He asked me straight:  "I was frantically searching you, Rajiv. Do you have any idea who leaked this information about Modi having swine flu?" I replied I had no knowledge, wanting to know why he was asking this. "I phoned you up yesterday to confirm if Modi was suffering from the disease, but you didn't pick up", I complained.

I tried exchanging a few pleasantries, but I found he terribly disturbed. I didn't understand what was wrong. Later, a senior bureaucrat told me that Modi suspected not just this physician, who often undertakes routine check-up for Modi and his ministers, but also others for passing on the information about swine flu. Modi, even in bed, was bitterly castigating babus and physicians left and right for the leak. One of the physicians was quoted as saying that he had never witnessed this kind of "odd behaviour" from any politician before. The bureaucrat said, a frantic search was being made, under the able guidance of the chief minister's office, on how the information about Modi having swine flu was leaked, though everything was kept in the wraps. After all, the leak had taken place despite the fact that Modi's identity wasn't revealed even in the sample sent for checking. The sample carried the name "Ramesh"!

I recall this incident, even as it is becoming increasingly clear that, with about 150 deaths this year, Gujarat tops in negligence towards swine flu, and things have gone so far that the Gujarat High Court had to come down heavily on the state government, wondering why it has not declare the disease "an epidemic". Terming the state government's report on steps being taken to handle the disease as "eyewash", the High Court suggested that health care was in bad shape in Gujarat: "Instructions do not work. There are no qualified doctors in your community health centres. Even for X-ray, patients have to go outside". Indeed, there was a time when top Gujarat officials close to Modi would gleefully declare the state was "ideal" for medical tourism. Even memorandums of understanding were signed for this at Vibrant Gujarat business summits, a biennial event. But no one remembers them now.

Soon after Modi suffered from swine flu in 2009, the state babudom went into action. Quarantine wards in government hospitals were activated. As Gandninagar Sachivalaya was also found to be in the grip of the disease, with some officials, including the then state health secretary Ravi Saxena, having tested positive, a routine checkup was announced for all those who suffered from even mild cold. Many officials were quarantined. Things remained active over the next one year or so. Every passenger getting down from an international flight at the Ahmedabad airport was asked to fill up a declaration that she or he wasn't under the grip of the disease. If running nose was detected, checkup was done at the airport itself. Someone close to me, who came from the US, recalled how it was all very odd. "There was so much of rush. The paper work took so much of time. As if they are going to overcome swine flu with this piece of paper", was the comment on coming out of the airport three hours after the plane landed. At the Gujarat University grounds, where a state-sponsored exhibition was on, special gadgets were put up at gates, which would, one of the organizers told me, "detect" if you had any symptoms of swine flu!

I don't know how reliable these gadgets were, but one thing is by now amply clear: Over the last two years, nobody seemed to take swine flu seriously. There was no action plan, and nobody remembered it. In fact, there appears to be little awareness among those at the top in Gujarat that public health should not be taken lightly. Modi-style propaganda through hired PR agencies, on one hand, and suspicion towards anyone who disagrees, on the other, rules top government circles. Negligence towards health has reached a point where the view has gone strong that the best policy would be to hand over public health to private institutions. A senior bureaucrat quoted Rajesh Kishore, who heads the health department, to say that there is "no option but to privatize health in order to improve it"! In fact, the Gujarat's government tall claims on social sector are in sharp contrast to ground reality.  

I was scanning through state budget documents, and this is what I found: The Gujarat government's proposed expenditure for the health sector as ratio to the total allocation in 2013-14 has come. It was 4.6 per cent in 2012-13, and for 2013-14 it will be 3.9 per cent.  As for education, it was 16.1 per cent in 2011-12, went down to 13.4 per cent in 2012-13, and for 2013-14 it is 13.9 per cent.  Reserve Bank of India document, "State of Finances: A Study of Budgets of 2012-13", reveals that Gujarat's social sector expenditure as ratio to total expenditure has been receding. It was 37.6 per cent in 2012-13, as against 39.9 per cent in 2010-11 and 38.6 per cent in 2011-12. In fact, Gujarat's social sector expenditure as aggregate of the total in 2012-13 was less than the national average, 40 per cent, and worse than 14 out of 17 major states, including Chhattisgarh (49.3 per cent), Jharkahand (45.4 per cent), Rajasthan (43.8 per cent), Bihar (43 per cent) and Maharashtra (42.5 per cent). 

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In the name of the father!

Rumy Agarwal
29 March 2013, 03:14 PM IST

Sometimes simple gestures can be so much more eloquent than words… I realized this recently when my husband, our younger son Abhinav and I were driving through some rush hour traffic in the city and hubby dearest suddenly pulled over to the kerb, switched off the ignition and, dangling the car keys in front of Abhinav, said, "Hey, would you like to drive?"  The expression on our son's face was a curious mixture of elation and slight trepidation as he slipped behind the wheel, put the car in gear and drove along the road. Both father and son's hearts were racing and it was one of the finest examples of a father communicating to his son that he trusted him not only with the car but also his very life!

 

It's a father's unique privilege to bring his son through various rites of passage.  It may be a simple thing like letting him have his own room, or letting him stay home alone while his parents go out of town overnight; it may then be the first time he is allowed to use dad's electric razor and then, even dad's credit card and the car! These are big moments for boys in their transition from boyhood to manhood and sharing them with dad makes them special. The father-son bond is unique and yet quite complicated; strangely, though a father is a son's first role model, communication between them is not easy or smooth. While a daughter will dote on her daddy, jump onto his lap, share all her secrets with him, a son will not exactly be so communicative. Ah, men and their inability to express emotions!! They sure could learn a thing or two from us females!

 

Actually, what is a dad to his son? Is he really appreciated as much as he should be? Or is he just the guy whom the son doesn't see much around the house but who brings home the money required to buy stuff, whose clothes and shoes can be borrowed with impunity and often without permission, someone who asks uncomfortable questions about academics and exam results, is a strict disciplinarian (and, therefore, best avoided!), but yes, someone who is a crucial and integral part of his life and who MUST be there for the son to feel loved and secure? Honestly, there is much more to dad than what his son sees. While the world sings paeans to mothers, fathers remain a neglected lot. The mother bears the pain of child-bearing, but the father's role in child-rearing rarely gets its much-deserved accolades. Somehow,  a little boy goes through several stages before he realizes the true worth of his dad—from the stage of "My dad knows everything" (when sonny is knee-high) through "He doesn't really know that much", followed by "He is out-of-date" to  (check this!) "I wonder what dad would've thought about it" and "I think I'll get dad's opinion on this, he knows best"—circle completed! In fact, by this time, son has become a father himself!

It's only when he grows up, and steps back from him, or leaves him for his own career and his own home – it's only then that he can measure dad's greatness and fully appreciate it.

One of the most complex and intricate familial relationships is that of dad and son, which is why bonding for dad and son must be cultivated and strengthened. The father-son relationship serves as the foundation for a son till he grows to be an adult, and it is the cornerstone of the son's existence during his adolescent years when he is at the crossroads.  As dad has more experience and knowledge than his son, he can provide the latter with guidelines. It is dad who steers the relationship in the right direction. There is something about the presence of the father that symbolizes power and respect.  And though sons often do not realize it, or hate it if they do, discipline is needed in the role of fatherhood. Setting boundaries is important because children need to learn early on. A good father will know where to draw the line even when the child is angry or sad about it. The first priority of being a father is being a father, not a friend. Actually, this is the toughest part of fatherhood, but in the end it pays off. Children grow up knowing they have limits and this benefits them in the future.

Hey boys, do I sound suspiciously pontifical? Gosh, I never meant to! I just felt that you guys may need a little nudging to remind you that Dads are not the bad guys just because they set the rules. Actually guys, I'd like you to treat this write-up as a crash course in "Dad appreciation"—know the value of the treasure that is "dad", love and appreciate him while you have him. Dads are "cool", dads are fun and, most importantly, dads are oh-so-dependable—they will be there for you when no one else will. They will be the fall guys who will happily take all the blows that life will throw at you. You may not realize it but you are so lucky to have that taken-for-granted feeling that come what may, your Dad is there to share it with you. You may not even be conscious of the fact that it is your dad's presence in your life that allows you to sleep soundly at night and feel safe and secure at all times. He doesn't even let you be aware that after fulfilling the family's needs, he can ill afford to buy you something that you badly want—he gets it for you anyway, just to make you happy.   A dad is someone who holds you when you cry, scolds you when you break the rules, shines with pride when you succeed, and has faith in you even when you fail...

And this one is for the dads (may their tribe prosper!), because, after all, I am pleading their case, aren't I? :- "The most important thing a father can do for his children is to love their mother." Got it, dad of my brats?

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Vellore in limelight - Rare album at Sotheby’s

Uma Nair
29 March 2013, 05:55 PM IST

The genre of British watercolours and cultural accessories of the British Raj have always stood apart for their touch of class and their elusive candour.Sotheby's presents a rare set in the month of April.

A large and important Company School album of watercolours of costumes, craftsmen, trades and processions in India circa 1832-35, valued at £200,000 - £300,000,  provides a fascinating insight into the Indian culture of the period. Superior to the majority of similar related productions of Company patronage, the album is remarkable for both for its size and quality, but also for its uncommon subject matter. Alongside depictions of craftsmen, processions, dancers and contemporary costumes, unusually the album also contains a self-portrait showing the artist at work, Among the other characters illustrated are a fisherman, doctor, barber, goldsmith, a dressing servant and dancing girls. All in all, the album includes 35 large sheets bound in their original leather covers and is estimated at £200,000-£300,000.

The album consists of thirty-five large sheets of Whatman and Ruse & Turner paper (of varying dates between 1821 and 1828) bound in its fine original leather covers. Most sheets bear three groups of two figures representing a variety of trades, crafts and individual characters, each with a male and female figure. There are also several group scenes of dancers, four processional scenes (Procession of Vistnu (sic); Procession of Sivah; Procession of a Hindoo Marriage and Procession of a Mussulman Marriage), a sheet of four agricultural scenes, the aforementioned view of May Place, Vellore, and the self-portrait of the artist. The portraits of dignitaries include the former King of Kandy, his son, and the Prime Minister of Ava. There is one sheet with portraits of six soldiers of the Madras regiments of Horse Artillery, Light Cavalry, Rifle Corps, Pioneer Corp, Infantry and Golundauz (a gunner of artillery).

The focus of the album, as well as its pictorial style, is the southern and eastern regions of India. Vellore itself, mentioned on sheet XXXIII, is on the Palar River in modern-day Tamil Nadu, between Madras and Bangalore. Other aspects of the album also relate to this general area of India: on sheet.

XXVII is a depiction of a 'Seringapatam Mussulman', the uniforms of the soldiers depicted on sheet XXXI belong to Madras regiments (a watercolour of circa 1835 showing two identical uniforms and labelled 'Madras Light Cavalry' and 'Madras Horse Artillery' is in the National Army Museum, London, Inv.1965-04-18-2) and the title given by the artist to the self-portrait on sheet XXXIV includes the term 'Moochee' which usually means a shoemaker or leather-worker, but in South India can also mean an artist or gilder (see Hobson Jobson, p.579).

In an era before cameras and photography, administrators, officials and visitors to the East India Company would commission such albums, painted by local Indian artists to bring back and show their friends and relatives.

The album contains some interesting and rare portraits, including dignitaries such as the former king of Kandy, his son and the Prime Minister of Ava. Another  sheet contains wonderful portraits of six soldiers of the madras regiments of Horse Artillery, Light Cavalry, Rifle Corps, Pioneer Corp, Infantry and Golundauz. The focus of the album as well as its pictorial style is the southern and eastern regions of India, Vellore. A very similar album is in the India Office Collections in the British Library in London. The album will be sold in Sotheby's Arts of the Islamic World sale in London on 24^th April.

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Indian artists under 40 - Jitish Kallat tops popularity international market

Uma Nair
28 March 2013, 10:55 AM IST

Artprice.com gives us a chart that looks at popularity of Indian contemporary artists under 40 and Mumbai-based Jitish Kallat tops the list while Raqib Shaw of London comes a close second followed by Thukral and Tagra.

Jitish Kallat is among  the most exciting and dynamic Asian artists to have received international recognition in recent years. He works across a variety of media including painting, sculpture, photography and installation, his work reflects a deep involvement with the city of his birth (Mumbai) and derives much of its visual language from his immediate urban environment. His subject matter has been described previously as 'the dirty, old, recycled and patched-together fabric of urban India'. Wider concerns include India's attempts to negotiate its entry into a globalised economy, addressing housing and transportation crises, city planning, caste and communal tensions, and government accountability.

Many of Kallat's works focus on Mumbai's downtrodden or dispossessed inhabitants, though treating them in a bold, colourful and highly graphic manner. His greatest works have been his series of 'Dawn Chorus' paintings, for example, depicts the street urchins who take advantage of red traffic lights to sell books to commuters in Mumbai. Rather than focusing on their reduced circumstances, Kallat celebrates their resilience and their enterprising spirit.

Traumanama (The Cry of the Gland)

Then there is Kashmiri roots but Calcutta born Raqib Shaw who is a London dweller and known for his historic work Garden of Earthly Delights. His paintings are fantasy worlds of animals and mythical creatures. Pulsing with suggestions of violence and eroticism, these works are rendered with extraordinary flair and detail. A vast range of sources, from English literature and Renaissance painting to Japanese kimono and Chinese cloisonné techniques, informs Shaw's hybrid imagery. Its visual opulence comes from the artist's unique process, which involves building up surfaces with stained glass paint and enamel, which is then teased into shape with a porcupine quill and finished with gems, glitter and rhinestones. This is so laborious a process that the paintings take months, even years, for Shaw to complete. These works reveal both the artist's highly resourceful imagination and his singular, innovative commitment to the process of painting.

Raqib Shaw, Untitled

Based in New Delhi, artists Thukral and Tagra work collaboratively under the alias Thukral & Tagra (T&T), bring a fresh wave of visual experimentation by fusing Indian, Japanese and Western pop icons into cheeky visual puns targeted at overblown contemporary lifestyles.

Cult design Wallpaper magazine named T&T among the top 101 emerging designers of the world, GQ magazine hailed them as style icons, who created an exclusive line of bags and clothing for Puma, Benetton and designed Pepsi cans.

Thukral and Tagra; Psycho Acoustics 01

T&T's art has found favour with celebrity collectors; Elton John trekked all the way to Sydney to purchase a steel dome painted with nostalgic childhood references and hedge fund billionaire and collector extraordinaire, Frank Cohen bought mock-trophy busts of Punjabi lads adorned in popular, foreign labels.

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Politics killed dinosaurs?

Manas Gupta
28 March 2013, 01:37 PM IST

What really killed the dinosaurs? A comet, a meteor, a super volcano, or plain stupidity? 

Weeks after a study found that dinosaurs were wiped out from the earth due to a massive meteor strike comes a new study that claims dinosaurs went extinct due to a comet crashing into the earth. Commenting on the development, our in-house expert, Professor Iknow Jackshit said: "Potato, potaa-toe, what's the difference? At the end of the day the dinosaurs are as dead as the dodo." 

Members of the scientific community are incredulous at what this credible research by a credible institute published in a credible journal has thrown up, again. In light of this controversy, we decided to examine more studies on the matter.

Of course, we decided to put aside theories of a super volcano, or asteroid aside, as Prof Jackshit called them "silly drabbles of a drunk demented nincompoop". 

One of the theories was 'terrorism'. A study, which comprised asking random questions from a sample of 20 people, concluded that the dinosaurs of one country probably trained and funded terrorist dinosaurs who caused massive bloodshed in a neighbouring country. (The most notorious name in this is the IDI or the Inter-Dinosaur Intelligence.) Both the dinosaur countries were armed with nuclear weapons and eventually a nuclear war exterminated all dinosaurs and dictators.

Another theory claims they discovered democracy. The major players included Politicosaurus and Corruptosaurus. It worked at first but slowly came a culture of weak coalition governments. Dinosaurs were constantly going to polls because some ally or the other kept pulling the plug. Some speculation also exists on the misuse of an anti-corruption watchdog (or watch-dinosaur) called CBID - Central Bureau of Investigating Dinosaurs. Eventually, the theory claims, the voting public got fed up of the massive corruption, scams and general idiotic behaviour evident from voting patterns, and the entire dinosaur civilization degenerated into chaos.

Of course, chances are some dinosaurs never died, they just got elected. 

Then there is the oil theory. A small group of scientists —mostly from Iraq — believe a large group of dinosaurs, headed by a Tyrannosaurus-Rocks, invaded other dino territories in search of oil. Apparently, the dinos used massive amounts of oil in their hair and also ate deep-fried foods. This led to massive obesity, starting with the invading country —United States of Dinosaurs — even as foods chains like Kentucky Fried Dinos and McDinos did well. Eventually, all dinos had a heart attack and died. Surprisingly, this theory has few takers.

Meanwhile, as top scientists fight over comet and meteor theories, a number of other strong possibilities are being ignored. Experts feel pollution could be a dinosaur killer, or excessive consumption of alcohol... even moral policing, and of course the all-important one, brainless silly films.

But eventually, there was consensus among our panel of experts on the strongest theory behind dinosaur extinction: They discovered religion.

Follow Manas On Twitter

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Finally, an affordable tablet you can buy

Javed Anwer
28 March 2013, 06:45 PM IST

No, it is not Aakash, Aakash 2, Aakash 3 or the mythical tablet Moses carried. It is Nexus 7, Google's first tablet.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Micromax Canvas HD, terming it the phone to buy if you are looking for an affordable option. Today I am going to talk about Nexus 7, the tablet you should buy if you can't shell out money for an iPad.

Indian market is full of budget tablets, including a few from Micromax. But all of them leave much to be desired. Some suffer from poor performance. They lag during use. Most of them have poor screens that show dull colours and lack good touch sensitivity. Most of them also have very poor build quality, are unnecessarily heavy and run older versions of Android.

Big companies like Samsung, Huawei and Acer have tried to satisfy demand for affordable tablets but their efforts have not been entirely successful. They often lack the hardware that can make the tablet a joy to use. For example, even Galaxy Tab 2 comes with a graphics chip that is too old to properly run many games available in the Android Play store.

So far, whenever someone asked me for the cheapest tablet to buy, I always pointed out iPad Mini. It is a superb device at a very good price.

All that changed this Tuesday. After a long wait, Google launched Nexus 7 in India.

Nexus 7 is a fantastic tablet at a very good price, Rs 15,999. It is available directly from the Google website. (Go to Play store, log in with your Google ID and you should be able to buy it using a credit or debit card).

I continue to consider iPad Mini a very good option but if you can't spend Rs 21,900 on it, Nexus 7 is not a bad deal at all.

Consider the hardware, for example. Nexus 7 is powered by quad-core Tegra 3 processor and 1GB RAM. It is a fast device and there is no user interface lag. It handles demanding games well. It has a fantastic IPS screen with 720P resolution and top-notch touch sensitivity. While it lacks the exotic aluminium, the tablet is put together with tough and quality plastic. It feels solid. It comes with a front camera which is decent for video chats and has 16GB internal storage, which may not be very generous but is enough for day-to-day usage. The only downside that I see in Nexus 7 is lack of support for 3G. Google is only selling the Wi-Fi model for now and those who want a budget tablet for internet-on-the-go should still look at Galaxy Tab 2.

While the hardware is good, the real star in Nexus 7 is the software. The device runs the latest version of Android and is guaranteed feature updates for at least one year, directly from Google. The latest version of Android – more commonly known as Jelly Bean – is beautiful, fast and functional. Unlike the modified versions of Android that power tablets from other companies, the untouched Jelly Bean complements Nexus 7 very well.

Another important point to note about Nexus 7 is the content it can access. Compared to Apple, Google has been a little slow in bringing its device and content services to India. But since the beginning of this year, it is making some progress. In February it launched Google Books. Just days after the launch of Nexus 7, it launched Google Movies. The rates for both books and movies are decent. Most books cost between Rs 150 to Rs 300. Classics like Great Expectations and Treasure Island are free. Movies can be rented or bought in SD or HD. The cost is usually between Rs 80 to Rs 450. If you are renting the film, you have to watch it within 30 days. Once you start watching a film, you have to finish it within 2 days. If you buy movies, you can access them from any Android device or any PC using a browser.

There is a possibility that Google Music will also be available in India soon.

The availability of affordable movies and books and the fact that Nexus 7 runs an updated version of Android makes the tablet a fantastic package. It is not perfect yet. I would have loved to see the 3G version of the tablet. But if you have a budget of around Rs 20,000 and can manage without 3G, both iPad Mini and Nexus 7 are great options.

Follow Javed Anwer on Twitter

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Working Women and Working Men - A Country Divided

Rukmini Shrinivasan
27 March 2013, 11:35 AM IST

When I wrote about Delhi's extremely low female workforce participation rates last weekend, several people emailed asking if I had numbers for their states. It's something I'm curious about too, and there's a lot to be learnt from inter-state comparisons.

(Brief aside on data: the latest data on labour force participation comes from the 2009-10 National Sample Survey. Unfortunately, the latest round does not have city-level data, nor is Census 2011 data on workers out. So the best I can do is look at inter-state rural/ urban data.)

The Labour Force Participation Rate or the LFPR is the total number of persons employed and seeking work as a proportion of the total population. So if City X has 1 lakh women aged 15 and above of whom 40,000 are employed and 10,000 are unemployed but seeking work, then City X's adult female LFPR would be 50%. While employment and unemployment rates can tell you a lot about a state's economy, the LFPR, especially when it comes to women, tells you about economy, employment and that great intangible – "culture".

In 2009-10, the states with the highest urban adult female LFPR were Mizoram (highest at 42.2%), Lakshadweep, Meghalaya, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Of these, Meghalaya has a very small urban population (just 20 per cent of its population), while Lakshadweep and A&N have very small populations as a whole. So if we were to leave these three out, India's top 5 states for urban adult female LFPR would be: Mizoram, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, all of them at or over 25 per cent. (If we were to make a No Union Territories rule, then Himachal Pradesh would come in at 5^th after AP. But I won't make this a rule because Puducherry's population is actually bigger than Mizoram's, and its urban population is far bigger. So Puducherry stays.)

Unsurprisingly, urban female literacy in four of these states was over 80 per cent in 2011, while Andhra Pradesh's was 75 per cent. Mizoram's urban female literacy rate is over 97 per cent, an astounding achievement that I don't think it gets enough credit for.

At the bottom of the list are (discounting the tiny UTs of Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu): Goa, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and right at the bottom – Delhi.

What's really interesting is that the Top 5 list for women has almost zero overlap with the Top 5 states for male urban LFPR: Gujarat (highest at 79.8 per cent), Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal/ Orissa (tied for 5^th place at 78.3 per cent). It could be argued that in states like Gujarat, Punjab and West Bengal where male urban LFPR is high, the opportunities for employment seem to exist, so other, possibly cultural, factors could be contributing to the low urban female LFPR in these states.

What do urban working women do? In Mizoram, rural and urban areas are far less sharply defined than in a Maharashtra or a Tamil Nadu, and almost half of urban working women in the state work in agriculture and forestry. In Himachal too, agriculture employs 20 per cent of urban working women.  For the other states, the story is for the most part one of manufacturing – 34.5 per cent of TN's urban working women and 31.6 per cent of AP's are employed in manufacturing.

Now let's look at rural India, where most of India lives. In general, rural adult female LFPR tends to be higher than urban because women are overwhelmingly employed in agriculture. The top 5 states for rural women are: Himachal Pradesh (far and away the highest at 64.3 per cent), Andhra Pradesh, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh and Meghalaya. So HP, AP and Mizoram are the three states that feature in the Top 5 or 6 for both rural and urban adult female LFPR.

What about rural men? Top 5: Mizoram (highest), Gujarat, Karnataka, West Bengal and Tripura. Again, just one overlap with women: Mizoram.

The female LFPR is an amazingly complex indicator. On the one hand, women from poorer families tend to have a greater need to work so poorer and more agricultural states could be expected to have high female LFPRs. On the other, urban employment for women requires a certain degree of skill, so better educated states with a higher manufacturing base will have high female LFPRs. And then there's culture, which we can see all around us playing an important role in a family's decision whether or not to allow its women to work. 

At the national level, and at the level of several otherwise economically advanced states, the low female LFPR is an issue of concern. But in other states, as we saw, the female LFPR is comparable to developed countries. India's employment story is a complicated one, and all of the numbers above just remind me of how little national averages tell us.

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India, Sri Lanka need to revisit the past for a better future

Manimugdha S Sharma
27 March 2013, 11:43 AM IST

Over two millennia ago, a great emperor who called himself Devanampiya Piyadassi (beloved of the gods) and who believed in Dhamma-vijaya (spiritual/moral conquest) more than digvijaya (military conquest), gave the gift of Buddhism to Sri Lanka. The world knows him as Ashoka the Great: a man whose faith in the teachings of Sakyamuni Buddha was so deep that he defied all established notions of kingship and statecraft, and became a messenger of peace, or so they say. He was the master of an empire that stretched from the gates of Persia in the west to the border of Assam in the east. His spiritual empire, though, knew no bounds. 

Lankan king Devanampiya Tissa (ruled from 307-267 BC) welcomed his great neighbour's children—son Mahinda (Mahendra) and daughter Sanghamitta (Sanghamitra)—as ambassadors. Mahinda converted the Lankan king to Buddhism, and it was through his good offices that king Tissa was able to convince Emperor Ashoka to send a branch of the sacred Bodhi tree to Sri Lanka. It was Sanghamitta who brought the branch along with her. It still survives where it was planted in the island country.

Emperor Ashoka codified his law of Dhamma through rock edicts and pillar inscriptions and declared that all his neighbours and contemporaries should follow the law and be just rulers. However, an alternative school of thought sees Ashokan edicts as instruments of coercion. They say Ashoka may have been a great monarch, but he didn't tolerate voices of dissent and so, wasn't exactly a liberal as made out to be. These historians have viewed the Mauryan emperor's rule through the prism of 20th century democratic ideals. But all historians have unanimously held that Ashoka was a benevolent despot at best, his empire a big brother state at worst.

[The Dhamek Stupa at Sarnath believed to have been first built by Emperor Ashoka to commemorate the deer park where Lord Buddha delivered his first sermon. The National Emblem, the Lion Capital, originally stood here]

The Dipavamsa and Mahavamsa (chronicles of Sri Lanka) suggest emperor Ashoka was held in high regard by his Lankan contemporary. And why not, after all it was he who had first united India by moral force—long before Akbar the Great, who achieved the same end but with equal use of physical and moral force—and had transformed a minor cult into a major world religion. It won't be wrong to presume that Buddhism is the most dominant faith in Sri Lanka today because of Ashoka; but in its country of origin, Buddhism, the man who founded it, and the man who popularised it, were forgotten until the arrival of the English (the Orientalists to be more precise).

When the English were making discoveries pertaining to the Sakyamuni and Ashoka, a Buddhist revivalist movement was going on in Sri Lanka (which would eventually give rise to the Sinhala Buddhist chauvinism that we know today). One of the movement's founders, Anagarika Dharmapala, also contributed to the revival of Buddhism in India. A stone tablet at Sarnath recalls his contribution to the faith and Dharma, and ranks him with "Dharmasoka, Maha Mahinda and other notable figures in the history of Buddhism".

[The stone tablet at Sarnath listing the contribution of Anagarika Dharmapala of Sri Lanka. He died in Sarnath]

However, Dharmapala had his flaws. Some of his writings suggest a racial bias. He believed the Sinhalese to be pure-blooded Aryans and declared that Sinhalese women shouldn't marry or have children with the minorities. He also wrote that Christianity and polytheism (Hinduism) are responsible for some vulgar practices in the island country such as animal sacrifice, prostitution and drunkenness. Many argue that the unfair treatment meted out to the Tamils in Sri Lanka today has its genesis in the Sinhala Buddhist nationalism of Dharmapala and others of his ilk.

Over 2,000 years later, Ashoka's law of Dhamma is no longer remembered as much as his good relations with his southern neighbour. India and Sri Lanka today don't share the bonhomie of Ashokan times. And the way things are headed, both countries may soon find themselves in a situation far worse than a mere diplomatic row.

On March 21, India endorsed a US-sponsored resolution against Sri Lanka in the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). India never had an enviable foreign policy; in fact, traditionally, Indian foreign policy has always been dubbed as 'weak-kneed'; but on Thursday, the government allowed itself to be browbeaten into endorsing the resolution in the name of placatory politics. Sri Lanka responded by announcing that it would partially take over control of a strategic oil storage depot from the Indian Oil Corporation. Not just that, India also runs the risk of losing power projects in the island country to China. Too many consequences for saying yes to the resolution, isn't it?

By voting against Sri Lanka twice in two years, India has given a clear indication of its big brother attitude; but the moral force of Ashokan Dhamma does not power this India, so Sri Lanka isn't bothered. It has successfully ended the 30-year-old civil war on its own, so it has little to care about what India thinks it should do.

True, President Mahinda Rajapakse isn't the 'light of Ceylon' unlike his ancient namesake, prince Mahinda. His government is accused of not treating Tamils as citizens with equal rights, and of persecuting anyone who questions its handling of the Tamil problem after the successful ending of the three-decade old civil war. 

But given India's own economic interests in Sri Lanka, which are being threatened by the ever-increasing proximity between the island nation and China, the decision to endorse the UNHRC resolution seems like a blunder, especially since Pakistan has already scored a point by voting against the resolution and empathising with Sri Lanka. Pakistan has argued that it's been only three years since the civil war ended in Lanka, and three years aren't enough to streamline processes and restore order that was lost for 30 years—a view shared by some Indian strategists too.

It needs to be seen how India would react to a situation if Colombo warms up to both Islamabad and Beijing. Time for another Dhamma-vijaya, I think.

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Strobe Talbott: An American at large

TK Arun
27 March 2013, 12:21 PM IST

At large' is a term that fits Strobe Talbott rather well. Not so much because it has been part of his official designation on two occasions in the past — editor-at-large for Time and ambassador-at-large for the US government — as because of the free-ranging expansiveness it connotes.

His professional career has taken him places and continues to take him places, but more significantly, his mind ranges far and wide, not like a casual tourist eager to be awed but as a keen observer who logs insights and pieces them together later to build his own big picture.

India in the fold

He is in India in his capacity as president of the US's oldest think tank, the Brookings Institution, which traces its history back to 1916 and founder, Richard Brookings, a successful and energetic businessman who turned to public affairs as a Republican-leaning person but served in Democratic president Woodrow Wilson's war administration.

Brookings has opened an India chapter, after setting up a centre each in Doha and Beijing, with sponsorship from a Founders' Circle that comprises a cross-section of India's corporate elite.

So his mandate when he speaks to the press in the capital is to speak about Brookings India and how it reports directly to the parent organisation, unlike the Doha and Beijing centres that report to the Saban Cen tre on the Middle East and the John C Thornton Centre on China, respectively.

But being at large, Talbott talks about China, the Middle East and Pakistan while returning to Brookings every now and then. No, he hasn't met up with Jaswant Singh yet, but he can't come to Delhi and leave without meeting his old friend, Jaswant, he said.

As under secretary of state in the Clinton administration, Talbott talked long and hard and often with Ind ia's then-foreign minister, to find comm on ground, conceivable only at a distance from both India's 1998 nuclear tests and attendant US sanctions.

Talbott is a South Asia expert, and understands the dynamics of the region's politics and politicking. He paved the way for what proved to be a bipartisan consensus in Washington on building a strong relationship with India.

Eye on South Asia

The Talbott-Singh talks paved the way for normalisation of ties between the two nations; president Clinton's 2000 visit to India and his subs equent speech in Islamabad, in which he called on Pakistan to stop dreaming of redrawing its borders in blood, to redefine its nationhood in ter ms other than hostility towards India.

The understanding established between New Delhi and Washington then served as the basis for the Bush administration's leap of faith that resulted in India's release, via the Indo-US nuclear deal, from a crippling technology-denial regime. Which makes the BJP's opposition to the nuclear deal all the more hypocritical and unprincipled.

If the US, China and India would find a balance in their strategic positions, the world would be a much better place, said Talbott. This, for him, is the centrepiece of a stable world order in the future.

How would such an arrangement have an impact on something like terror in the name of jihad? If China had behaved more responsibly on nuclear non-proliferation, the country at the centre of terror in the name of jihad, Pakistan, would not have had a nuclear weapon to bargain with.

Pakistan and peace

He understands that the project of building Pakistan as a homeland of Muslims and also a secular state was unviable at the outset. The only way forward for Pakistan, in danger of being devoured by the very forces it had unleashed, is to rebuild itself as a secular state and it is in India's interest to see this happen rather than its alternative: for the state to collapse and an entire nation turn into a collection of non-state actors, with radioactive ammunition to boot.

The palestine problem

But what of another communal state, founded for and constituted by one religious community, which denies its subaltern groups democratic rights? What is the US doing about Israel? Read President Obama's speech in Jerusalem, said Talbott. You remember what Clinton said in Pakistan, he said, Obama did something similar in Jerusalem on March 21.

Well, so he did. He called for ending settler activity, spoke of a twostate solution that offers well-defined borders and security to both Israelis and Palestinians, of the need for young people of Israel to accept that what they see as a fundamental rig ht for the Jews, of being able to live in a state of their own in a land of their own, is a legitimate fundamental right for Palestinians as well Talbott does not share the view, strongly held in Tel Aviv, that the biggest threat to Israel is a nuclear Iran. It is demographics, he said.

Israel cannot be a Jewish state and democratic, so long as the current state of affairs continues. The Palestinian population is growing, and unless you enable them to live in a democratic state of their own, you will end up creating an undemocratic state for yourself. The logic of this is irrefutable, and one can only hope it will unfold in the days to come.

Interpreting the world

Talbott sees Indians as a little too quick to dismiss Western Europe as a strategic player. He would like to see the European Union as an ongoing experiment in creating transnational governance, something Saarc can draw on in the years to come.

So will Brookings India focus on such problems? That is entirely up to Brookings India, he said. We are not going to decide in Washington what Brookings India will focus on. It is up to the very competent people here to decide what projects they undertake, what lines of inquiry they pursue.

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Whats wrong with our politicians??? Demand for Sanjay Dutt release, suspension of Mumbai cop unacceptable….

Prashant Panday
26 March 2013, 09:39 AM IST

I am usually nice to politicians. I think we malign them too much; fail to understand their contribution to society. All of us armchair critics simply cannot get it that many of them are genuine leaders of our society; people who stick their neck out to make things better for us. There are the black sheep of course, but we tend to paint all of them with large simplistic brush strokes. However, two recent incidents have made me join the chorus of politician bashers. One, the demand that Sanjay Dutt's sentence be pardoned, and another, the suspension of the Mumbai cop (Suryavanshi) who dared to book an MLA for speeding on the Bandra Worli sea link.

The politicians have behaved in the most shameful manner in both these cases. Take the Sanjay Dutt matter. On what grounds can he be condoned? Or his sentence remitted? Is it not true that he was in possession of three AK-56 rifles? Isn't it true that these guns are not mere toys, but full-fledged assault rifles, used by terrorists to assassinate large numbers of innocent people? Isn't it also true that he acquired these guns from noted criminal Abu Salem? Why was he even keeping Salem's company? Whatever his grounds may have – immaturity, recklessness, a wasted childhood, stress – whatever…..the fact remains that he was arrested for a wretched act of crime on which two courts – the TADA court and even the SC – have confirmed jail sentences for him. On what grounds can an appeal of pardon even be considered by the Governor? How can the Governor condone an act of crime which is linked to terrorism?

By no stretch of imagination is this a case of celeb victimization. Sanjay Dutt is not being harassed. He is being mollycoddled. Outlandish reasons are being floated for his pardon. Apparently, because he played the role of a lovable goon-turned-doctor, Munnabhai, and extolled the virtues of Gandhigiri, he must be spared. Really? So an actor who plays the role of a criminal in a film should be arrested right? And how many such people wont take to Gandhigiri if they can escape the prospect of going to jail? A Bollywood veteran said that "Sanjay has suffered enough", hence he must be pardoned. Really? What about the lacs of similar people who suffer for decades and for whom no one cares? And its appalling that a generally sensible person like Justice Markandey Katju should join the brigade of such wayward people – in fact, he was the first one off the block. Can he first answer the questions I have raised? Those who still have doubts about this subject should read Shekhar Gupta in last Saturday's editorial page piece "Our poor little Sanju" in the Indian Express, and their minds will be cleared.

In the beginning, when a few voices demanding that Sanjay Dutt be pardoned emerged, I thought they would die down. But the clamour for his release has only grown. The movement is snowballing; forcing me to write on this subject today. Almost all of Bollywood is crooning for his release now. Most politicians – at the state and central levels – are asking for the same. Most media outlets are going along as well. In this bizarre scenario, I am delighted that the BJP (and now, also the Shiv Sena) have decided to support the rule of law. Whatever their reasons – maybe it is Sanjay Dutt's Congress connections which motivates them – it is good that the BJP has decided not to join the demand for his release. By standing out, the party has demonstrated that no matter how big or small the convict, the same rules apply.

Then the other incident in which an ordinary traffic cop dared to intercept the vehicle of an MLA in Mumbai for speeding. Apparently, some sort of a verbal duel ensued. The MLA probably thought that he was some sort of a privileged god; that he was above the law. He and others of his ilk summoned the cop to Mantralaya and thrashed the daylight of this poor soul. To the extent, that the poor cop is struggling in a hospital. As if this was not enough, the cop has now been suspended, for his "rude behavior". I find it impossible to believe that an ordinary, simple cop on the road would start off by being rude; especially with a politician, who must without doubt have been flashing his "red beacon". Apparently, RR Patil, the Home Minister came under pressure from the opposition, because in another incident in the state a year back, no action had been taken against some cops who assaulted an MNS MLA in Aurangabad. As if two wrongs can make something right, Patil went ahead and suspended this Mumbai cop. What can be more vindictive than this? What can be more evidence that the Maharashtra government – and all politicians belonging to all parties – care little for the law? What can be more unacceptable than politicians demanding they be treated as the privileged class? That the laws be set aside for them?

These two incidents should be panned across media. We are the ones who make celebs, celebs. We are the ones who make politicians, politicians. Even if we cannot make them answerable to us, we should make sure that they don't take us for granted. If ever there was a movement – a street demonstration, a hunger strike – needed, it is now. This time in Mumbai. I don't particularly like Anna Hazare, but if there is one way he can regain his credibility, it is now. Mumbai and Maharashtra are his "karma bhoomi"; its time he or someone like him came forward and took these goons on.

The real truth is that politicians have challenged us by seeking a privileged status for themselves. Ditto, the celebrities. It's time we put together a fight. In whichever way we can. I have done so by writing this post. You can do so by starting a viral campaign online. Others who feel up to it can take to street demonstrations. Whatever, lets not take this lying down….

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For the love of Sanjay

Sharmila Ravinder
26 March 2013, 11:41 AM IST

Heroism is celebrated best in India and the definition of a different kind of heroism too is also bizarrely unique to our part of the world. Most of us have a very misguided sense of gallantry; valiance appears to be best understood when depicted on the silver screen. Bollywood is centric to our comprehension of what fake valor really is. We drool and swoon over those hunks in Bollywood and allow them to get away with grave transgressions. Worse, our memories are short as we move from one clip to another, enjoying the moment and the moment alone. We find it very difficult to debate with reason and evidence when it comes to our favorite celebrities; we are moved with passion when defending them, and for all the wrong reasons. Public support for celebrities is the result of idol worship that dwarfs grave misdemeanors.

Then there is political clout inside and outside the area of a celebrity's hemisphere. There is today very little separation between the lawmakers and law offenders. This poses as a serious threat when it comes to execution of the law. When offenders get support from corners that are deemed to be the pillars of this democracy, law is made a mockery of. When Mamta Banerjee or any other politician comes out openly to support an Actor who most certainly deserves to serve the remaining term of his punishment, a very wrong message is being relayed out. A celebrity is above the law and does not deserve to be punished like everyone else is what is being implied. Mamta Banerjee stated that she fondly remembered Sunil Dutt and he would have taken all efforts to ensure that Sanjay does not suffer any more and that her heart echoed the same sentiments. When a politician openly professes that she shares the same sentiments as an erring celebrities Father would have, it clearly articulates the state of affairs. The message being, Sanjay Dutt or any erring celebrity cannot be treated ordinarily under the law of the land and that the Supreme court verdict ought to be treated with contempt if it goes against a celebrity. Ideally, the lawmakers should view celebrity misdemeanors at arms length; this can never be the case in India.

Sanjay Baba may be a lovely person and a popular person within the industry and many may weep for him, but really why should we care? In real life Sanjay is not symbolic of Gandhigiri, an important tenet that includes not aiding violence. As a man with a reasonable mind, Dutt has committed an offence and he needs to pay for it. Sanjay's charade of Gandhigiri is restricted to the silver screen. An article in the Indian Express states - "Assault rifles, pistols and hand grenades were brought from Pakistan and several young men were also taken to Pakistan and given arms training, police officers linked to the investigation recalled after this week's Supreme Court verdict in the 20-year-old case. The arms landed at two places in Raigad district and one in Gujarat. The Gujarat consignment was hidden in the cavity of a vehicle and brought to Mumbai by road, driven by Abu Salem, who went on to become a prominent gangster. Salem and his accomplices needed a quiet place to open the welded cavity and remove the arsenal. The office of Magnum Productions, owned by Hanif Kadawala and Sameer Hingora, on Linking Road in Bandra, was chosen. Dawood Ibrahim's brother Anees called Hingora and Kadawala and told them to allow Salem to use their compound. The partners, however, were involved in a dispute with their landlord and did not want to risk catching his attention and suggested using actor Sanjay Dutt's house instead. Dutt was contacted and he agreed." Dutt initially kept some of the weapons and the rest were taken away by Salem. Dutt had gone on to claim that he had kept one gun for self-protection and yet had asked Anees to take some grenades away. Not only was Dutt involved in illegal possession of arms, but also a charge of a more serious nature had been leveled against him, of aiding and abetting the entire crime. The TADA court had however acquitted him of the terror charges and the Supreme Court upheld the same.

Undoubtedly Sanjay Dutt is the small fish, while the whales swim freely elsewhere. But, this is no reason for him to go unpunished or for him not to finish the full term. Sanjay is not a 54-year-old child who was caught with party drugs. Bollywood has come out in full force to support him along with a bevy of Parliamentarians. Insanely, everybody talks about how Dutt has already suffered for 20 years and they have elevated Dutt to the status of a victim. The real victims remain forgotten and forever buried. 

 

Follow Sharmila on Twitter @supershamz

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No political instability, stupid! Get on with your business.

TK Arun
26 March 2013, 03:57 PM IST

There is a lot of speculation about the stability of the central government. Elections, it is being suggested, might be held in September-October this year, rather than in May 2014 as scheduled. This instability, speculators infer logically, could affect the government's ability to deliver on governance and reform. This dash of logic, a good portion of Mulayam Singh Yadav, a liberal dose of Tamil disaffection and CBI raid stories to taste make for a political brew that is hot and spicy. If it makes you sweat, relax. Elections will take place as scheduled, the central government will complete its term and try its level best to push economic growth. What businessmen need to worry about is their own business, not the shenanigans on Raisina Hill.

The reason is not the United Progressive Alliance is the darling of the political class and it would break the heart of any of the several outside supporters that keep this government going to see the government fall. Rather, the reason for the government's stability is that no one is keen to precipitate early elections. If the Samajwadi Party thinks it is in its interest to pull the government down, then it is only natural that his rival in the state, the BSP should want to keep the government going. The Trinamool Congress is seeing its fortunes ebb in West Bengal. It wants the tide to turn before seeing a major electoral battle. The Left, on its part, wants the slide to continue for some more time. Both are more than happy to let the government at the Centre be for the time being.

The BJP does not show any sign of moving a vote of no confidence against the government. In fact, party president Rajnath Singh has told the US envoy that early polls are unlikely. Its alliance with the JD(U) is rocky, there is a fierce tussle internally over leadership and its first government in the south of the country is all about to go down the tube.

Would the Congress gain, in this situation where no major force in the Opposition wants an election, if it were to go for a snap poll? Not really. It knows that the economy has to be given a chance to recoup, recover from nearly three years of mismanagement. Inflation has to come down, the pace of economic growth has to accelerate, if more people are to get jobs. The Congress would like to use every second of the time it has before it faces the voters again.

Since it is in no party's interest to have early elections, the government at the Centre will be stable. In the interest of the ruling coalition, it will put up far better governance than it has in the past. Politics is conducive to doing business. Business has to turn businesslike, too, instead of wringing its hands now over the euro and then over local politics.

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A status update on various recent “scams” shows it was mostly froth….

Prashant Panday
25 March 2013, 09:53 AM IST

Since a lot of so called "scams" have "broken" on media in the last few months, I think it's a good time to look at their current status. How much of all was this was just hot air (or gas), and how much was the honest truth. The update will help the sift the politics out of the business of scam mongering.

1)    The Agusta Westland chopper deal: When the story first broke, it started off with a simple allegation that there were agents involved in the deal. This was a violation of India's defence policy, but there was no direct involvement of any politician. As the story quickly snowballed, the truth got buried, and political allegations started flying thick and fast. While there was a case made out that Air Chief Marshall's three cousins had received commissions, and that ACM Tyagi himself was perhaps a beneficiary, there was no hint of any ministers being involved. Later however, the BJP's focus shifted to alluding to a "massive" corruption in the Congress. The party even called it "Bofors 2". And then there was this ridiculous charge that since it was a deal with Italy, Sonia Gandhi was a recipient of the bribe! Current status: Initial facts look like they were correct. Latest CBI findings suggest that the Tyagi brothers were indeed involved; there is also a possible link-up with ACM Tyagi (today's papers), though a money trail to him is still to be found. There is ZERO linkage to any Congress politician, leave alone Sonia Gandhi. In fact, Defence Minister Antony has been on the offensive, pushing the BJP onto the backfoot. If he has his way, the chopper deal will be canceled, pushing the country behind by a decade. To his credit, Antony has stayed head and shoulders above any wrongdoing.

2)    Private banks' "money laundering" sting: Two weeks back, a "huge" sting operation was conducted by Cobrapost, which alleged that top private banks were helping dubious clients convert black money to white. So much was alright, but to add a little masala, the whole thing was converted to a political story by the BJP making the claim that "the government was not serious about curbing black money". Where the BJP got the idea to link what was essentially the handiwork of a few bank managers to the government's anti-black-money struggle, no one knows and the party doesn't deem it necessary to explain. Current status: the RBI conducted a full inquiry and has cleared the banks of any wrongdoing. Whatever happened was at a local level. The banks in turn have suspended a few officials. Is this a cover up? Well, it was a regulator who inquired, not a government official. Make up your own mind.

3)    Rs 1.76 lac crore 2G scam: The CAG triggered this off by hinting at a "notional" loss. The BJP converted it to a "national" loss. The basis of the figure was a benchmarking with the 3G auctions, which for different reasons, had priced spectrum very high. It's a different story that those prices were so unsustainable that the 3G business has become a huge loss making proposition for the telcos. The government mis-handled the situation by distancing itself from the "low price" formula it had adopted, shunning Kapil Sibal's rightful assertion that it was a policy decision and there was zero loss. Current status: A series of 2G auctions – modeled on the "successful" (in reality, failed) 3G auctions – have shown that the value of 2G spectrum is far lesser than the CAG pronounced. In fact, the high auction pricing policy – directed by the Supreme Courts and CAG's activism – is the reason why the auctions are failing. The subscriber base has started crashing. Telcos are bleeding. A witchhunt against the telcos has started. The sector is in a mess. Subramaniam Swamy tried his levellest best – going right up to the SC – but could not prove Chidambaram's involvement. In the meanwhile, the main accused Raja is the only one who looks guilty (though not proven yet). The amount of corruption is of the order of a few hundred crores (if proved). Truth. Just plain truth.

4)    The CWG scam: Now remember this was touted to be a Rs 70,000 crore scam. I thought after 2 years we would at least have a trace of that sum. Current status: Truth is that the only case filed against Kalmadi is something about a Rs 90 crore loss suffered by the country in a TSR order placed on a Swiss firm rather than a Spanish firm. Remember, this is only a chargesheet. The case is still to be proven. Those who handle business know that often the cheapest quote is not the best because there are conditionalities attached or the vendor's credentials are suspect. But leave that aside. The actual corruption would be much lower than the Rs 90 crores loss. So yes, Kalmadi is in the dock, but the Rs 70,000 crore number was just a sensationalist story.

5)    Robert Vadra's Haryana land deals: A lot was made out of this. Vadra had reportedly made sweetheart deals with DLF, and DLF had allegedly been "taken care of" somewhere else by the Haryana government. The activist IAS officer Ashok Khemka was the flavor of the TV circuit for a few days for having the guts to cancel Vadra's deals. Current status: Here's an update by CNN IBN quoted in a livemint.com story: "Haryana's deputy commissioners have found no irregularities in Congress President Sonia Gandhi's son-in-law Robert Vadra's land deals. A panel of four Deputy Commissioners has given Vadra's deals a clean chit. Four Haryana deputy commissioners conducted inquiries into Vadra's deals after IAS officer Ashok Khemka's order, dated October 12," CNN-IBN said in a report." The only thing which stays is that Vadra made good profits, but then is that a crime? Kejriwal who leveled the allegations (whats new about that?) hasn't yet filed any case against Vadra. Why?

6)    Salman Khurshid's NGO: Since the time the "scam" broke in Oct 2012, not much has happened. Strange, considering this is the Union Foreign Minister (highly vulnerable) and the case is being run in UP, an opposition run state! Current status: The latest is that the Allahabad Bench of the UP High Court has issued notices to the Zakir Hussain Memorial trust….. When the story broke, Kejriwal and several media outfits had already concluded that Khurshid was guilty.

The real truth is that all this shows that we must wait for the froth to subside to get to the facts. In a country with politics as effervescent as it is, it is the froth that attracts our attention. But the froth is just that. Froth. Its not the truth. And that is the real truth!

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Online or Offline?

Shubho Sengupta
25 March 2013, 10:40 AM IST

Twitter really happened, exploded 'offline'. Not online.

The Twitter founders decided to attend the music-film-and-tech conference South by Southwest (SXSW) in Texas, 2007.

Now this was risky because a similar product, Google-owned Dodgeball, had won Product of the Year at SXSW 2006.

They went anyway, as there was nothing to lose. There they set up two giant plasma TVs connected to a Twitter feed, near the biggest hall (to display Twitter updates about the conference that is).

Attendees crowded around to stare, and choose what sessions to attend. Soon, they were also live tweeting their experiences. At night, the same people were tweeting about the best bars and restaurants outside the venue.

In a few days, their userbase exploded - trebled, to 60,000. They won Best New Product of SXSW 2007, and captured the attention of the media and influential tech bloggers. Soon, they landed an investment of $5 million. By year-end, they hit 200,000 users.

And after that, it was hockey stick growth all the way.

And what happened to Google's Dodgeball? They shut it down in 2009, replacing it with Google Latitude.

Moral of Story: Traditional media can give digital media a big push.

Photo (c) SXSW

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Countdown to 2014 – or 2013?

Minhaz Merchant
25 March 2013, 03:46 PM IST

The UPA government, adrift at the centre, would like to advance the 2014 Lok Sabha election to October-November 2013. That would serve three purposes. One, avoid the electoral blowback of four likely successive state assembly defeats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi. Two, give the BJP less time to sort out its Narendra Modi-as-PM-candidate dilemma. And three, nip Mulayam Singh Yadav's Third Front idea in the bud.

Time, however, is not on the UPA's side. While the SP and BSP, enmeshed in corruption, communalism and casteism, can be counted on for rancid, day-to-day support, the Congress too needs time to gain full electoral benefit from its cash transfer scheme and food security bill.

Five big states will announce their verdicts between May and November 2013. Karnataka kicks off the election season in May followed by MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi.

The Congress is likely to emerge as the largest single party in Karnataka though it may need Kumaraswamy's JD(S) to stich together a workable majority in the assembly.

The BJP, mired in misgovernance, deserves to lose the state and will. B.S. Yeddyuruppa's Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) will play spoiler but get few seats.

In MP and Chhattisgarh, good governance should return incumbents Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh to power with comfortable majorities. Rajasthan is likely to reject Ashok Gehlot's maladministration and Delhi, despite inroads by Arvind Kejriwal's AAP, will probably make it 4-0 for the BJP in the four states voting in or just before November.  

A simultaneous Lok Sabha election with four important state assembly polls in October-November may prove logistically difficult. By necessity therefore, with summer upon us and the monsoon to follow, and then the four big state assembly polls, the next Lok Sabha election will probably be held anytime between December 2013 and April 2014. The hangover of MP, Chhatisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi will be inescapable for the Congress.

Now to the math. Extrapolating the trends from 2014: the electoral math-II, here's how the state-wise break-up looks:

2014 Lok Sabha: Projections

State	Total Seats	Lok Sabha Projection
		Cong	BJP
Andhra Pradesh	42	4	0
Arunachal Pradesh	2	2	0
Assam	14	4	5
Bihar	40	2	15
Chhattisgarh	11	1	10
Delhi	7	1	5
Goa	2	0	2
Gujarat	26	7	19
Haryana	10	4	3
Himachal Pradesh	4	2	2
Jammu & Kashmir	6	2	1
Jharkhand	14	2	10
Karnataka	28	12	9
Kerala	20	8	0
Madhya Pradesh	29	8	17
Maharashtra	48	12	12
Manipur	2	1	0
Meghalaya	2	1	0
Mizoram	1	1	0
Nagaland	1	1	0
Odisha	21	2	0
Punjab	13	2	4
Rajasthan	25	7	16
Sikkim	1	0	0
Tamil Nadu	39	0	0
Tripura	2	0	0
Uttarakhand	5	2	3
Uttar Pradesh	80	12	20
West Bengal	42	5	0
Andaman & Nicobar	1	0	1
Chandigarh	1	1	0
Dadra and Nagar Haveli	1	0	1
Daman & Diu	1	0	1
Lakshadweep	1	1	0
Puducherry	1	0	0
Nominated members	2	0	0
Total	545	107	156

In states where Cong+BJP projected seats don't add up to total seats, UPA/NDA allies or unattached regional parties make up the projected balance as follows:

NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 7, AGP 2, Independents/Others 5. Total 30.

UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 8, NC 2, Independents/Others: 12, Total 22.

Leaning BJP: AIADMK 22, TRS 13, BJD 18, Others 12. Total 65

Leaning Congress: YSR 19, DMK 14, RJD 5, Others 10. Total 48

Unattached Regional: JD(U) 15, TMC 25, TDP 5, BSP 22, SP 26,

Left Front 24. Total 117

Summary:

BJP (156) + allies (30)= 186 + Leaning BJP (65) = 251

Congress (107) + allies (22) = 129 + Leaning Congress (48) = 177

Unattached Regional = 117

Assumptions:

1. The BJP will not declare Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate but hint that he will probably lead the NDA if it has the numbers to form the next government.
2. Despite the BJP's ambiguity over Modi, Nitish Kumar's JD(U) will detach itself from the NDA. Nitish knows what such ambiguity implies. He is thus placed in the "unattached" category above. 
3. Rahul Gandhi too will not be declared the UPA's Prime Ministerial candidate. He will  be the face of the campaign but is clearly averse to leading an unstable UPA 3 coalition.

So how do the cards fall?

From the seat projections above, the BJP (156) + allies (30) + leaning BJP (65) totals 251. That's 21 seats short of an uncomfortable majority. The ambiguity over Modi-as-PM could cost the BJP possibly 30 seats – and yet lose it the JD(U).

The Congress might fare even worse: 107 seats + allies (22) + leaning Congress (48) totals 177. That makes a Congress-led government a non-starter.

The regional front though could fare the worst: 117 seats for the "unattacheds" with two irreconciliables: TMC (25) and the Left Front (24) in West Bengal; and BSP (22) and SP(26) in Uttar Pradesh. Again, a non-starter.

But a workable government must somehow emerge from all of this. The most likely post-poll scenarios, in order of probability:

Scenario 1. BJP + allies + leaning BJP (251) scoop up independents and at least one more ally. Unlikelier things have happened in Indian politics.

Scenario 2. The unattached regionals (117) steal from the two sets of "leaners" – TRS (13), BJD (18), AIADMK (22) – to get up to around 170 seats and, like Chandra Shekhar in November 1990-May 1991 and Deve Gowda/Gujral in 1996-98, form a rump "third front" government with the Congress + allies (129) supporting it from outside. That arrangement though would run into immediate problems given the deep schisms between the SP/BSP, DMK/AIADMK and TMC/Left Front.

Scenario 3. The Congress + allies + leaning Congress (177) form the government with unattached regionals (JDU, TDP, SP) to get up to around 223 seats. Such a combination too would face instability from the start.

The key problem: between them, the Congress and the BJP have just 263 seats – less than half the Lok Sabha, making any formation unstable.

The prognosis? A quick midterm poll in 2015-16. (India did have three Lok Sabha elections between 1996 and 1999.) The BJP would have learnt some internal lessons by then and may decide to drop its ambiguity over its prime ministerial candidate. The Congress would be forced similarly to jettison its outsourced PM theory (Chidambaram, Antony, et al) and make Rahul stand up and be counted.

Then, in a straight contest, we could have a clear winner and a stable, full-term government. It's a pity that intra-party politics in both the BJP and the Congress will delay the inevitable.                         

Follow @minhazmerchant on twitter

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